Empirically very complex..... air temperature vs solid body cooling, rider muscle/body diameter, density of temperature with variable of altitude, humidity variable with/without altitude, power output with temperature variable over 60 minutes, rider hydration level at start, rider glycogen level at start, vasoconstriction of peripheral circulation, specific warm-up, tailored rider prep---a HUGE factor.
Subjectively, heat slows endurance component, blood in the integument means heart, lungs and muscles are getting much less, tires and track surface are stickier, head under helmet in heat--major problem, my observation has seen reduced speeds in 60' efforts in the heat--not just climbing, think gastric blood diversion--you wouldn't go swimming right after a large meal.
Where's Coggan, Keen or Le Breton when we need an answer?
What's the optimum water temperature for a 60' freestyle record?
Any Aussie should be able to answer that one.