How can Contador lose?

[Biffins]

Hi all,

I was just wondering, barring a crash, what could cause Contador to lose? Is it possible for someone to out-climb him? I personally think he blew at end of Stage 3........... is it possible that happens again? Is it possible that he isn't in as good form/shape as before?

Or is the whole Tour de France just a lengthy coronation process?

 

[khardung la]

He will just get better when others get worst, always happened. I would be surprised if he does not win.

 

[Cerberus]

Hi all,

I was just wondering, barring a crash, what could cause Contador to lose? Is it possible for someone to out-climb him? I personally think he blew at end of Stage 3........... is it possible that happens again? Is it possible that he isn't in as good form/shape as before?

Or is the whole Tour de France just a lengthy coronation process?

Is it possible he's not in as good shape? Yes it is, it's just not very likely. So yeah the most likely outcome is that only 2nd and/or 3rd place will genuinely be in play.

 

[mowie133]

only chance of him loseing is,cose of his weak team!! other then that he win just win

 

[Ferminal]

Crash, positive test, unexpected/uncontrolled breakaway or split.

 

[WonderLance]

Lance will beat him.

Lance has been back traning for almost two years now, he is going to get better and better.

Contador is to young and inexperienced he has only won 4 gts lance has won 7. contador also has a very week team that was not able to support him on the pavel and that is why he dropped back, no team.

They wont be able to support him in the montains, how do you expect contador to climb with the best unless the has at least three team mates around him? Seriously.

 

[mickkk]

Falling off would be a good start.

 

[Martin318is]

He has hunger flatted once before from memory but he is not likely to do that again.

Personally I think that he will need a small lead going into the TT and/or be VERY determined to hurt himself to win. From what we have seen though, that is definitely the case.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Lance will beat him.

Lance has been back traning for almost two years now, he is going to get better and better.

Contador is to young and inexperienced he has only won 4 gts lance has won 7. contador also has a very week team that was not able to support him on the pavel and that is why he dropped back, no team.

They wont be able to support him in the montains, how do you expect contador to climb with the best unless the has at least three team mates around him? Seriously.

even Lance himself would find your posts fail

 

[Liquigas]

Definetly an attack from someone with chances on the GC from the start of a Mountain stage, and other teams not wanting to help Astana to cut the gap.

 

[Roland Rat]

Andy Schleck has a great chance. If he can attack and leave Contador in a group with Armstrong, I can't see them working well together. If he can gain another 1-2minutes he should hold on for the TT.

 

[PCutter]

I think the 'Astana are a weak team' story is overplayed. He's still the best rider in the race and there are other riders with ambition. With Frank Schleck gone, when the final selections are made, the heads of state will be alone anyway. Liquigas are the strongest climbing team in the race so given his lead over Basso, he can mark them, or if someone does jump, they will also look to shut it down. And there are strong Spanish climbers to help - and importantly, dedicated to Conti - they won't want, or likely get, the yellow jersey in the alps, so they'd be more than capable of controlling the race in the final mountain days. And Bruynel isn't the only DS who can do a deal - which it looked like may have happened in yesterday's stage - you can be sure that if Alberto's team are in trouble he may get some extra help from his fellow Spaniards who definately be happy to help him chase down any LA attacks (not that I think he's capable of it). Conti helped chase down Cadel in either the Dauphine or Paris-Nice (cant remember which) for Valverde last year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Caisse returning the favour.

The only place I see him losing the race would be on the downhill finishes. The better downhillers could gain a minute or two on a couple of those finishes. Guys like Sammy Sanchez and Cadel Evans (to a lesser extent) are far better descenders than Alberto.

 

[hrotha]

Long range attacks and isolating him from his team mates is the only way. Best done by teams with more than one credible GC contender (Saxo before losing Fränk, Liquigas, and yes, RadioShack).

Unlikely to succeed, but better than waiting for Contador to drop you in the last 3 km of the last climb.

 

[M Sport]

what could cause Contador to lose?

Not much I doubt. He could be unlucky and crash out but that's about it, maybe a mechanical problem at the worst possible time, but I doubt it.

I would say he's as much a certain winner now as when the 5, 6 and 7 time winners were at their peak. Near on unbeatable.

 

[Carl0880]

Obviously a crash of some kind would be the main reason.

As far as race strategy, someone had mentioned it is someone attacked before the final mountain stage and the team fails to reel him or her in. a la Landis and we have a recent example, (Outside the Landis stage, but take out the positive test, the strategy is a good example)

Before his ouster from the tour in 2007, Rasmussen basically did this to upset Cadel and sastre. Rasmussen went on his yearly single stage search for the mountain jersey and ended up with enough time in hand, and rode a strong enough TT that he had a big advantage that he was going to be able to hang on to if he was not kicked out by his team. The reason they let Rasmussen go is because they deemed him the second option on the team, with Menchov being the appointeed GC guy.

With this said, I think the best way to upset them would be a teams second GC guy to win, not Schleck Armstrong or Cadel. Obviously Frank SChleck would have been a perfect example. Armstrong has the teammates to do this (Levi, Kloden and even J. Bra.), but i doubt team strategy will allow this.

Another possibility which I dont think will happen but is a possibility is the Lampre 04 Giro example.

 

[brianf7]

Hi all,

I was just wondering, barring a crash, what could cause Contador to lose? Is it possible for someone to out-climb him? I personally think he blew at end of Stage 3........... is it possible that happens again? Is it possible that he isn't in as good form/shape as before?

If Vino is up in GC he will not give it to Alberto he will want to go for it him self and he is boss of the team. Contadore will not be there next year and posibly Vinos last stand also.

Wait and see who is best

 

[Cobber]

I think the 'Astana are a weak team' story is overplayed. He's still the best rider in the race and there are other riders with ambition. With Frank Schleck gone, when the final selections are made, the heads of state will be alone anyway. Liquigas are the strongest climbing team in the race so given his lead over Basso, he can mark them, or if someone does jump, they will also look to shut it down. And there are strong Spanish climbers to help - and importantly, dedicated to Conti - they won't want, or likely get, the yellow jersey in the alps, so they'd be more than capable of controlling the race in the final mountain days. And Bruynel isn't the only DS who can do a deal - which it looked like may have happened in yesterday's stage - you can be sure that if Alberto's team are in trouble he may get some extra help from his fellow Spaniards who definately be happy to help him chase down any LA attacks (not that I think he's capable of it). Conti helped chase down Cadel in either the Dauphine or Paris-Nice (cant remember which) for Valverde last year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Caisse returning the favour.

The only place I see him losing the race would be on the downhill finishes. The better downhillers could gain a minute or two on a couple of those finishes. Guys like Sammy Sanchez and Cadel Evans (to a lesser extent) are far better descenders than Alberto.

Totally agree.... any team that doesn't send his ride to the start of the final TT would be stronger than his team from last year. However, anything can happen in a 3 week stage race - illness, hunger flats, crashes, punctures etc. He may be the strongest rider in the race, but if other riders attack and counterattack him he is vulnerable.

 

[Kwibus]

Lance will beat him.

Lance has been back traning for almost two years now, he is going to get better and better.

Contador is to young and inexperienced he has only won 4 gts lance has won 7. contador also has a very week team that was not able to support him on the pavel and that is why he dropped back, no team.

They wont be able to support him in the montains, how do you expect contador to climb with the best unless the has at least three team mates around him? Seriously.

Awesome troll post

Contador is inexperienced he ' only ' won 4 GTs . Yeh only 4 GT wins is a bit crap
His weak team was still next to Contador at the end of stage 3(Vino), but where was LA's help?

Contador won't need help from his mates in the mountains. There are a few that can keep up till the next mountain unless the fight starts before the last climb. On the last climb AC will simply leave everyone behind as he peddles to a stage win. Ok maybe Aschleck/Basso or Gesink can follow him uphill, but they all get owned by Contador in the TT.
Seriously!
Silly me replying to a troll post, but it's a funny one

 

[Kwibus]

Long range attacks and isolating him from his team mates is the only way. Best done by teams with more than one credible GC contender (Saxo before losing Fränk, Liquigas, and yes, RadioShack).

Unlikely to succeed, but better than waiting for Contador to drop you in the last 3 km of the last climb.

I totally agree. Why not try it? Else you lose anyways.
tbh I don't see Radioshack do it as I don't think they got the riders for it. I can't see LA attacking and Kloden and Leipheimer are wheelsuckers.

 

[Squares]

I was just wondering, barring a crash, what could cause Contador to lose?

Wait until Schreck attacks in the mountains and gets Levi to work with him. Then LA, CE, AK, and the rest of the contenders will wait for Bertie to close the gap on his own and pull them.

As soon as they get to AS, LA and CE will attack and again, everyone will wait for AC to close the gap and tow them back.

AC may have Vino to help, but if Vino drives it too hard and drops Bertie, there is not a chance in hell that he will slow down to wait for his teammate.

And, if AC attacks, Lance, Levi, Kloden, Brackovic, Evans, Schreck, and Sammy Sanchez will all work together to get to him (unlike last year when AC attacked and Lance and Kloden sat back and forced the Schlecks to do the chase all on their own (even though they were supposedly not acting like teammates).

 

[Carl0880]

Awesome troll post

Contador is inexperienced he ' only ' won 4 GTs . Yeh only 4 GT wins is a bit crap
His weak team was still next to Contador at the end of stage 3(Vino), but where was LA's help?

Contador won't need help from his mates in the mountains. There are a few that can keep up till the next mountain unless the fight starts before the last climb. On the last climb AC will simply leave everyone behind as he peddles to a stage win. Ok maybe Aschleck/Basso or Gesink can follow him uphill, but they all get owned by Contador in the TT.
Seriously!
Silly me replying to a troll post, but it's a funny one

I think for the most part, outside of guys for the flats, the main help a gc guy needs is 1 top mountain domestique (Obviously the more the merrier, a la the Blue train for Lance). Lance 3 most dominant years were 01, 02 and 04.

In 01 Heras was 15th, with a couple of falls. 02 Heras was 5th or 6th and in 04 Azevedo was 5th or 6th. In 07, Contador's teammate Levi Leipheimer finished 3rd. In 08, Sastre's teammate Schleck was 7th (I think) and baby Schleck was around 12thish. In 09, Contador's teammates Kloden and Lance were 3rd and 6th.

In general winners of the tour has one guy who is top 8. Think back to those years, when it got down to the final 5-8 guys, all these tour winners hadthat one teammate with them when everone else was isolated. I think its more essentially to have one top flight climber then to have 4 or 5 solid climbers as an ally.

 

[Delicato]

The problem is that it is impossible for these guys to work together and catch Contador full-force attack

Though I have doubts about him. He really doesn't look convincingly strong this year. Just my personal observation, nothing more.

Let's wait for Monday till we can make any conclusions on whether he is beatable or not.

 

[Mongol_Waaijer]

Wait until Schreck attacks in the mountains and gets Levi to work with him. Then LA, CE, AK, and the rest of the contenders will wait for Bertie to close the gap on his own and pull them.

As soon as they get to AS, LA and CE will attack and again, everyone will wait for AC to close the gap and tow them back.

AC may have Vino to help, but if Vino drives it too hard and drops Bertie, there is not a chance in hell that he will slow down to wait for his teammate.

And, if AC attacks, Lance, Levi, Kloden, Brackovic, Evans, Schreck, and Sammy Sanchez will all work together to get to him (unlike last year when AC attacked and Lance and Kloden sat back and forced the Schlecks to do the chase all on their own (even though they were supposedly not acting like teammates).

The problem with your theory is that AC will either go with AS, and LL won't be able to follow....The Sociopath will have to sit on Kloden's wheel at his max while AS and AC ride further away.

Or, AC will pull the others up to AS/LL, and in the process crank the speed up and will drop The Sociopath who will have to be paced by AK and LL in full damage limitation (The Sociopath reaching into his suitcase of courage etc), with Cadel (and Vino) hanging somewhere in between.

 

[Cerberus]

Andy Schleck has a great chance. If he can attack and leave Contador in a group with Armstrong, I can't see them working well together. If he can gain another 1-2minutes he should hold on for the TT.

While I as a Saxo fan would obviously love to see that, I think the scenario fails right from the start with "leaving Contador". Even if Andy is in great shape I don't think he can drop Contador. More likely Andy attacks Contador follows and either passed him or they work together to gain minutes on everybody else. Or and I certainly hope this doesn't happen, Andy really is in bad shape and can't drop anybody (who isn't also in bad shape).

 

[vcampbell]

I think there is no place to make theorys. Why should Contador wait the others to attack? He is behind Evans and Schleck. I think not later than Morzine he will attack, or already at the Lamoura, and when we remember to Arcalis and Verbier, then when he is in good form (not required to be perfect form), then nobody will be able to follow him.
And it doesn't count what people say, we have seen, that he has got a very strong team in the mountains, and now he also have Vino.

And also one thing: why the others want to work together vs Contador? They all come to here to win the Tour. It will be funny to watch that Schleck, Kreuziger, Basso and Evans attack Contador, and at the end Lance or some RS guy wins the Tour. Its impossible to imagine.
And please forget Samuel Sanchez, and LL Sanchez. They are very great riders, but in in 3 week.