How can Contador lose?

[Eyeballs Out]

No question he's the man to beat based on his past record but I don't get the impression Contador is unbeatable - he may simply not be the strongest this year

Certainly not inconceivable that Andy Schleck could have improved enough since last year to hold his wheel in the mountains now - maybe even drop him

Also not inconceivable that he went too deep on Alpe D'Huez a few weeks ago trying (and failing) to drop Brajkovic. Reminded me of Evans trying to drop Valverde the year before and perhaps that was linked to his Tour flop

 

[Angliru]

Lance will beat him.

Lance has been back traning for almost two years now, he is going to get better and better.

Contador is to young and inexperienced he has only won 4 gts lance has won 7. contador also has a very week team that was not able to support him on the pavel and that is why he dropped back, no team.

They wont be able to support him in the montains, how do you expect contador to climb with the best unless the has at least three team mates around him? Seriously.

You may want to stick with your not serious posts if this is an example of you being serious.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Who will beat Alberto Contador?
GOD will beat him.

 

[Angliru]

There was word that Saxo and Shack would or should work together to put Contador in trouble but that would not benefit Andy Schleck since any time he gains on Contador is equally giving those same gains to Armstrong who will put at least 2 minutes into Schleck in the ITT.

Contador will be shadowing Armstrong and Schleck responding to their every move in the mountains. Sending Leipheimer and/or Kloden out on the penultimate climb is the only way to possibly make Contador's team burn off their energies early, hopefully for his opponents leaving Contador isolated on the final climb. Problem is that this is when Contador undoubtedly will try to gain time on his opponents with his unanswerable attacks. Who can answer his attacks? I haven't seen anyone in recent years among the current crop of contenders in a Tour mountain stage setting that can.

 

[auscyclefan94]

There was word that Saxo and Shack would or should work together to put Contador in trouble but that would not benefit Andy Schleck since any time he gains on Contador is equally giving those same gains to Armstrong who will put at least 2 minutes into Schleck in the ITT.

Contador will be shadowing Armstrong and Schleck responding to their every move in the mountains. Sending Leipheimer and/or Kloden out on the penultimate climb is the only way to possibly make Contador's team burn off their energies early, hopefully for his opponents leaving Contador isolated on the final climb. Problem is that this is when Contador undoubtedly will try to gain time on his opponents with his unanswerable attacks. Who can answer his attacks? I haven't seen anyone in recent years among the current crop of contenders in a Tour mountain stage setting that can.

Also, with Frank out now, Saxo don't really have another gc overall danger other than andy of whom they can send up the road early to put AC under the pump. With rabo's two pronged attack, maybe they could work with some other teams to bring down AC.

 

[Roland Rat]

Who will beat Alberto Contador?
GOD will beat him.

Have you received that restraining order from them yet?

 

[Publicus]

I think Evans is in the best position possible to beat AC. If he had ride defensively and minimize his losses, he will win his first grand tour with a crappier team than all of those Lotto teams he complained about for so many years.

I think Andy needs AC's assistance more than anyone's to have his best shot at winning the Tour. He needs minutes. At least 2:00, over guys like Evans and Menchov. Astana has the team of mountain goats (Hernandez, de la Fuente, Navarro, Tiralongo) with some decent engines (Noval, Grivko and Iglinsky) who can power the flats and chases. And then there is Vino.

As I said at the start of the Tour, if Astana made it through Stge 3 with no serious injury, they have the strongest team for the remainder of the Tour. That was before Frank Schleck went down. They've got guys who can sit on Levi or Kloden's wheel. More likely we will see Jani throw down an attack (unexpected and he showed some real moxie at the Dauphine). And the overall contenders would be wise to react. Not just AC, Andy and Evans too.

I think there are too many variables to predict how AC will win or lose. But he can definitely lose this race and at this point it is more than likely that he will (to Cadel).

 

[oncehadhair]

Hi all,
I was just wondering, barring a crash, what could cause Contador to lose? Is it possible for someone to out-climb him? I personally think he blew at end of Stage 3........... is it possible that happens again? Is it possible that he isn't in as good form/shape as before?

Or is the whole Tour de France just a lengthy coronation process?

Well first he has to make up to a minute to get past some riders who are serious GC contendors - who only need to keep pace with him to maintain their lead.

Then he has to use his team well, which shouldn't be too hard this year without armstrong undermining his efforts.

Stay out of trouble.

Have some luck.

Then have the strength to attack somewhere to get a lead.

Pretty simple really.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Evans is in the best position possible to beat AC. If he had ride defensively and minimize his losses, he will win his first grand tour with a crappier team than all of those Lotto teams he complained about for so many years.

I think Andy needs AC's assistance more than anyone's to have his best shot at winning the Tour. He needs minutes. At least 2:00, over guys like Evans and Menchov. Astana has the team of mountain goats (Hernandez, de la Fuente, Navarro, Tiralongo) with some decent engines (Noval, Grivko and Iglinsky) who can power the flats and chases. And then there is Vino.

As I said at the start of the Tour, if Astana made it through Stge 3 with no serious injury, they have the strongest team for the remainder of the Tour. That was before Frank Schleck went down. They've got guys who can sit on Levi or Kloden's wheel. More likely we will see Jani throw down an attack (unexpected and he showed some real moxie at the Dauphine). And the overall contenders would be wise to react. Not just AC, Andy and Evans too.

I think there are too many variables to predict how AC will win or lose. But he can definitely lose this race and at this point it is more than likely that he will (to Cadel).

Publicus is my 2nd fav poster now! You are on the freinds list until you insult cadel!

 

[Publicus]

Publicus is my 2nd fav poster now! You are on the freinds list until you insult cadel!

I try to be as realistic as possible when assessing a situation. Right now, Cadel is in the proverbial catbird seat. His only real problem he is a threat to just about EVERY GC candidate. If Saxo Bank was smart, they would get him into yellow ASAP. BMC is just not equipped to lead and control a GT (IMO).

All of that being said, he has to be the favorite to win at this point.

 

[Cerberus]

I think Evans is in the best position possible to beat AC. If he had ride defensively and minimize his losses, he will win his first grand tour with a crappier team than all of those Lotto teams he complained about for so many years.

I think Andy needs AC's assistance more than anyone's to have his best shot at winning the Tour. He needs minutes. At least 2:00, over guys like Evans and Menchov. Astana has the team of mountain goats (Hernandez, de la Fuente, Navarro, Tiralongo) with some decent engines (Noval, Grivko and Iglinsky) who can power the flats and chases. And then there is Vino.

As I said at the start of the Tour, if Astana made it through Stge 3 with no serious injury, they have the strongest team for the remainder of the Tour. That was before Frank Schleck went down. They've got guys who can sit on Levi or Kloden's wheel. More likely we will see Jani throw down an attack (unexpected and he showed some real moxie at the Dauphine). And the overall contenders would be wise to react. Not just AC, Andy and Evans too.

I think there are too many variables to predict how AC will win or lose. But he can definitely lose this race and at this point it is more than likely that he will (to Cadel).

Honestly i just don't see what happening. Even if Evans is 100% on after the Giro he's not half the climber that Contador is. Contador even took time out of Evans on a pancake flat Prologue, so i won't expect major gain, if any from Cadel in the longer TT. On the plus side you'll look like a genius if you're right, I'll look like someone who checked a bookmaking site and regurgitated the obvious pick.

 

[Publicus]

Honestly i just don't see what happening. Even if Evans is 100% on after the Giro he's not half the climber that Contador is. Contador even took time out of Evans on a pancake flat Prologue, so i won't expect major gain, if any from Cadel in the longer TT. On the plus side you'll look like a genius if you're right, I'll look like someone who checked a bookmaking site and regurgitated the obvious pick.

Cadel is a better climber than you give him credit for. Coming into the 2009 TdF Contador kept his eye on Evans (see the infamous Dauphine). And I can't help but notice how much this year's route is like the 2007 route, especially with the long, flat TT at the end. Obviously AC has improved considerably in the mountains since 2007, but I am not going to write-off Cadel at this point.

He is the most dangerous man in this field for a lot of riders, including one Alberto Contador.

 

[Delicato]

Even though Evans himself said that he can cope with the riding of two GTs in a year, I highly doubt that he can keep his form till the end of the Tour. Look at his wattage at the Giro. People at the Tour ride uphill faster. If he clearly improves his climbing at the Tour it can be a serious attention (doping) sign.

He also tends to fade in the third week of the GTs. And there are some monstrous stages in the third week, like Ax-3 Domaines or Tourmalet, where he will certainly lose huge chunks of time.

That being said, he is a good candidate for Top-6, but nothing more. He cannot respond to the continiuous accelerations of AC and AS.

 

[hrotha]

I think Evans is in the best position possible to beat AC. If he had ride defensively and minimize his losses, he will win his first grand tour with a crappier team than all of those Lotto teams he complained about for so many years.

I'd say if Evans does that, he'll lose the Tour in the ITT like he did in 2008. He's a good time trialer, of course, but he can't *count* on crushing even someone like AS.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Even though Evans himself said that he can cope with the riding of two GTs in a year, I highly doubt that he can keep his form till the end of the Tour. Look at his wattage at the Giro. People at the Tour ride uphill faster. If he clearly improves his climbing at the Tour it can be a serious attention (doping) sign.

He also tends to fade in the third week of the GTs. And there are some monstrous stages in the third week, like Ax-3 Domaines or Tourmalet, where he will certainly lose huge chunks of time.

That being said, he is a good candidate for Top-6, but nothing more. He cannot respond to the continiuous accelerations of AC and AS.

Any more doping refrences and I WILL report you.

 

[movingtarget]

What a shame that Hincapie punctured. If Evans gained another minute on the cobbles it would have been very interesting. I like Evans attitude at the moment. He is very relaxed. Contador should be able to make good use of Vino as Vino will not be allowed to get too far ahead. Fatigue in the third week is the big question for Evans. Contador can sometimes be over enthusiastic with his attacks but should still be favourite but there will obviously be a big reshuffle after the second stage in the alps. Andy Schleck knows that he will have to be leading the race going into the time trial to have any hope at all. Of course Contador can be beaten and with so many contenders this year, any alliances will not help him.

 

[Cerberus]

Cadel is a better climber than you give him credit for. Coming into the 2009 TdF Contador kept his eye on Evans (see the infamous Dauphine). And I can't help but notice how much this year's route is like the 2007 route, especially with the long, flat TT at the end. Obviously AC has improved considerably in the mountains since 2007, but I am not going to write-off Cadel at this point.

He is the most dangerous man in this field for a lot of riders, including one Alberto Contador.

Well the infamous Dauphine had Evans peaking to early, so I'm not sure how much that proves. I can see Evans possibly keeping up with everybody except Contador, but not Contador himself. Ultimately I guess we'll see fairly soon.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

I try to be as realistic as possible when assessing a situation. Right now, Cadel is in the proverbial catbird seat. His only real problem he is a threat to just about EVERY GC candidate. If Saxo Bank was smart, they would get him into yellow ASAP. BMC is just not equipped to lead and control a GT (IMO).

All of that being said, he has to be the favorite to win at this point.

Please don't let this go to your head. You are one of MAYBE 2 or 3 people that can realistically handicap the situation on this forum. (And, no, I am NOT any of the remaining people!)

Cadel is the threat. I wouldn't be surprised to see Andy crack in the mountains, he hasn't been on form all year and I don't see anything this week to make me change that opinion (yet).

Who can help Cadel? (on his team or not on his team, doesn't matter)

Should be interesting in the mountains (too few mountains this year, I guess, at least imo)

 

[Señor_Contador]

I think Alberto has this one in the bag too. I don't see anyone cooperating to beat anyone. I mean, there will be the usual "help", but nothing that can put AC under any pressure.

I also think some of you are waaaaay off the mark. I mean, people saying that JB or LL dropping AC... Cadel, of all people! dropping AC. I mean, let's be realistic here. The only way I see AC losing is if he messed up his preparation, not because someone else improved tremendously.

Cadel is not even going to make the podium. I'm sorry if anyone feels insulted but that's the way I see the game being played out. I also do not see Alberto performing at a lower level. At this stage of the game he is a "fish out of water". I see a guy not at 100%, but close to it. I think he wants to peak during the last week, and he looks to be en route.

Don't let the cobbles stage distract you, everyone was hurting that day, including LA (he said so himself).

Once the road starts to go uphill, just watch those who now feel are in contention go "oh shhhhhhiiiiiiit!".

 

[Publicus]

Well the infamous Dauphine had Evans peaking to early, so I'm not sure how much that proves. I can see Evans possibly keeping up with everybody except Contador, but not Contador himself. Ultimately I guess we'll see fairly soon.

I was just referencing that Contador considered Evans a serious threat. Not that the Dauphine meant anything in the Evans v. Contador battle.

 

[Publicus]

Please don't let this go to your head. You are one of MAYBE 2 or 3 people that can realistically handicap the situation on this forum. (And, no, I am NOT any of the remaining people!)

Cadel is the threat. I wouldn't be surprised to see Andy crack in the mountains, he hasn't been on form all year and I don't see anything this week to make me change that opinion (yet).

Who can help Cadel? (on his team or not on his team, doesn't matter)

Should be interesting in the mountains (too few mountains this year, I guess, at least imo)

Too late!

 

[Climbing]

What about Ivan?
He is the only one wich Contador didn't run against yet, so if you must you should bet there to have a chance!

 

[Señor_Contador]

What about Ivan?
He is the only one wich Contador didn't run against yet, so if you must you should bet there to have a chance!

Well, we've seen what Basso's done vs. Lance and we know what the outcome was. We've also seen what Contador did to Lance, so connect the dots.

Numbers don't lie, opinion may.

 

[Climbing]

Yes, but that was a long time ago, and maths and cycling not always go togheter.
But the true answer is "he can't lose in normal condition", wich in cycling means pretty much nothing.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Too late!

many pictures are blocked at work (like flicker, twitpic picasa and just about everything else) I assume a giant head is pictured, load it to your profile and re-link.

I think I saw in a post that you are a lawyer, so the odds of finding a lawyer who desn't equate his wallet with his talents are slim. So, iow, it's futile.