It's a tricky one.
The argument that he deliberately took clen on the rest day, but in such a small dose it would be useless, doesn't make sense.
So that leaves us with his claim "it was the cows that done it" and suspicions that it was a result of a transfusion.
If you can't prove the latter took place, what are you left with?
As I said, it's a tricky one.
I wouldn't be surprised if he receives no penalty. Nor would I be surprised if he gets 6 months and loses the 2010 TdF.
I'd be more surprised by 2 years.
Whatever happens, it'll be unsatisfactory to a lot of fans.
Steve