How to Determine if Contador is Innocent

[issoisso]

How to determine if he's innocent:

Tie him to a 400kg rock and throw him into the ocean.
If he floats, he's guilty. If not, he was innocent.

 

[JA.Tri]

Clenbuterol positive. How did it get there? Several possibilities...One probable source.

WADA and UCI by virtue of previous decisions have indicated that an athlete is responsible for any substance they ingest, therefore any positive. My understanding is that only if an athlete had an incident of "spiking" would they not have a penalty imposed.

There are numerous instances of athletes that have truly inadvertently ingested banned substances. These incidents of ingestion have resulted in positives. On the cause of positive reading being identified a penalty has still been applied. The inadvertent "doping" has been recognised with a reduced penalty, but a penalty non the less.

Therefore...

Whatever the "discovered"* source of the Clenbuterol, given previous WADA/UCI history there should be a penalty applied. In fairness to the system (flawed as it is), AC should spend some time on the sidelines.

[* as determined by UCI/CAS/any other appeals board)

The quantum of the "holiday" will I guess take into account the determined source/cause/reason for the "positive" Clenbuterol finding.

In the unlikely event (IMHO) that UCI takes any regard of the plasticisers then I guess the penalty will also take that into account.

 

[TubularBills]

segura: Samples were collected in polypropylene bottles (free of DEHP)

Thanks P for the confirmation - no longer a loose end.

 

[Merckx index]

First, in the document instances of clenbuterol poisoning in Spain, those poisoned had eaten specifically veal liver (see the abstract for http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7610227) - there is no evidence I can find that enough clenbuterol could accumulate in a tenderloin to poison the eater of the tenderloin, without having first killed the cow -

This is not true. I posted a link more than a week ago (I think in the plasticizer thread) to a study that showed that eating steak, not veal, from calves given reasonable, non-toxic doses of CB could result in urine levels more than 10x higher than what Bert tested for. Not enough to "poison" someone, to be sure, but that's not the issue, since Bert never claimed to be poisoned.

Then someone posted another link yesterday on another thread--I can't remember which one--of a study that even said there were cases of CB poisoning--IOW, very high levels--from eating meat.

Here are the links:

http://proceedings.live-record.de/proceedings_2_pdf/2_185.pdf

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9610490


The rest of what you say is a better argument. Testing of Spanish meat has found very few samples with CB, so it appears highly unlikely Bert ingested contaminated meat. Not impossible, as Ramos said, but unlikely.

But as I noted on the Kohl thread, Matschiner says that Kohl and his other clients isolated red cells from whole blood, storing them in very small containers, presumably frozen. This method of blood transfusion is not comparable to transfusing whole blood that has been stored above freezing for several weeks. Specifically, it should result in far less leaching of DEHP from the bags--because the bags are smaller, contain mostly solid material, and are frozen--even assuming the bags used to store the red cells contain DEHP at all.

 

[buckwheat]

Let me make it a little simpler for you. "Alberto your 15 minutes of fame has expired. You are the weakest link, G' bye"

Slim, You gonna visit Pharmstrong in Lompoc?

 

[Paco_P]

This is not true. I posted a link more than a week ago (I think in the plasticizer thread) to a study that showed that eating steak, not veal, from calves given reasonable, non-toxic doses of CB could result in urine levels more than 10x higher than what Bert tested for. Not enough to "poison" someone, to be sure, but that's not the issue, since Bert never claimed to be poisoned.

Then someone posted another link yesterday on another thread--I can't remember which one--of a study that even said there were cases of CB poisoning--IOW, very high levels--from eating meat.

Here are the links:

http://proceedings.live-record.de/proceedings_2_pdf/2_185.pdf

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9610490

The rest of what you say is a better argument. Testing of Spanish meat has found very few samples with CB, so it appears highly unlikely Bert ingested contaminated meat. Not impossible, as Ramos said, but unlikely.
.

You are right, and after googling a bit, I found a fair number of other studies that confirm that it is possible to get Contadoresque levels of clenbuterol by eating meat (rather than liver). Perhaps I've fallen into the trap of being unfair because it seems so hard to believe that he would be innocent.

 

[JPM London]

You are right, and after googling a bit, I found a fair number of other studies that confirm that it is possible to get Contadoresque levels of clenbuterol by eating meat (rather than liver). Perhaps I've fallen into the trap of being unfair because it seems so hard to believe that he would be innocent.

Don't let anybody tell you to listen to anything. If you feel like being biased you're perfectly welcome - it's actually a pretty popular pastime for countless people... Even quite a well paying job for many.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

Don't let anybody tell you to listen to anything. If you feel like being biased you're perfectly welcome - it's actually a pretty popular pastime for countless people... Even quite a well paying job for many.

The clen positive is one thing. How about the plastic? Unless he gets his meat ground up and fed through a toothpaste tube, there are still some serious doubts about his 'diet'.

 

[JPM London]

The clen positive is one thing. How about the plastic? Unless he gets his meat ground up and fed through a toothpaste tube, there are still some serious doubts about his 'diet'.

Yeah, I love all the pictures you can make in your head about how his diet might be. Even giggling as I'm writing this! The only caveat I have re the plastic is that we don't have any official information - only what's claimed in the media. But apart from that tiny detail, which can be eradicated any moment, it's pretty damning indeed...

To be honest I'm leaning towards the meat-contaminated-by-a-whole-plastic-fork or the swallowed-water-bottle theories. No matter how you turn it, it's still more credible than unborn twins.

 

[ElChingon]

He could prove his innocence by testing his other blood bags for traces of Clen. and prove to us there is no Clen. in them!

Opps, that would also prove he blood dopes

 

[Merckx index]

He could prove his innocence by testing his other blood bags for traces of Clen. and prove to us there is no Clen. in them!

Opps, that would also prove he blood dopes

Actually, you make what might be a very relevant point. If Bert has been blood doping by separating red cells, freezing them, then re-infusing them later, he could not test positive for CB, or probably DEHP, either, as a result of this procedure. To reiterate, most of the CB in his blood would be removed when the red cells are separated from the plasma, and the red cells would be stored in bags not containing DEHP.

So suppose he has been blood doping in this manner. He therefore knows with a high degree of certainty that the CB must have gotten into his system from contaminated meat, rare as that is, because he never transfused with whole blood in DHEP bags. But he obviously can't explain this to the UCI/WADA.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

Actually, you make what might be a very relevant point. If Bert has been blood doping by separating red cells, freezing them, then re-infusing them later, he could not test positive for CB, or probably DEHP, either, as a result of this procedure. To reiterate, most of the CB in his blood would be removed when the red cells are separated from the plasma, and the red cells would be stored in bags not containing DEHP.

So suppose he has been blood doping in this manner. He therefore knows with a high degree of certainty that the CB must have gotten into his system from contaminated meat, rare as that is, because he never transfused with whole blood in DHEP bags. But he obviously can't explain this to the UCI/WADA.

DEHP would remain in the plasma? And not cross-contaminate the reticulocytes? Just asking 'cause I'm the curious sort...

 

[JPM London]

Actually, you make what might be a very relevant point. If Bert has been blood doping by separating red cells, freezing them, then re-infusing them later, he could not test positive for CB, or probably DEHP, either, as a result of this procedure. To reiterate, most of the CB in his blood would be removed when the red cells are separated from the plasma, and the red cells would be stored in bags not containing DEHP.

So suppose he has been blood doping in this manner. He therefore knows with a high degree of certainty that the CB must have gotten into his system from contaminated meat, rare as that is, because he never transfused with whole blood in DHEP bags. But he obviously can't explain this to the UCI/WADA.

That must be the biggest disappointment of all! Being busted, when you have done something you're not supposed to, but being busted for something you didn't actually do! Oh, the irony...

 

[JPM London]

By the way, Merckx, you mentioned that the blood would need to be cryo-frozen - would that in itself further affect any remaining traces of CB? For instance "kill" or render "intestable" whatever might have been attached the RBC?

 

[Merckx index]

DEHP would remain in the plasma? And not cross-contaminate the reticulocytes? Just asking 'cause I'm the curious sort...

No, the point is if red cells are separated from plasma and stored, they are stored in a container that does not contain DEHP. DEHP is used for pliable blood bags, that kind of material cracks when frozen.

By the way, Merckx, you mentioned that the blood would need to be cryo-frozen - would that in itself further affect any remaining traces of CB? For instance "kill" or render "intestable" whatever might have been attached the RBC?

Probably not. But there would be very little bound to the cells, and what little was there would probably be mostly removed later, when the cells are thawed and thoroughly washed to remove the glycerol.

 

[sagard]

To determine whether he is innocent, simply follow the simplest and most probable explanations. It seems similar to other riders scenarios who all have attempted weak explanations.

The guy is still a fantastic rider and one of smartest riders. Unfortunately he simply got caught with something in his system. He is no more dirty or clean than the rest of the elite GT riders.

Pay the whatever penalty is deemed appropriate after trying to get it reduced, then come back and start beating these guys again.

Just don't pull a Valverde or a Landis and drag it out.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

The guy is still a fantastic rider and one of smartest riders. Unfortunately he simply got caught with something in his system. He is no more dirty or clean than the rest of the elite GT riders.

'Simply got caught with something in his system'... That's such a brilliant defence, I expect we'll see him stomping again in no time!

 

[flicker]

To determine whether he is innocent, simply follow the simplest and most probable explanations. It seems similar to other riders scenarios who all have attempted weak explanations.

The guy is still a fantastic rider and one of smartest riders. Unfortunately he simply got caught with something in his system. He is no more dirty or clean than the rest of the elite GT riders.

Pay the whatever penalty is deemed appropriate after trying to get it reduced, then come back and start beating these guys again.

Just don't pull a Valverde or a Landis and drag it out.

Not to take anything away from Albertos' athletic prowess but he just isn't very smart. He looks' like he is taking the same old denial trail.

 

[patrick767]

Sorry if this has been addressed elsewhere, but I just read today's story where the lab chief dismisses Contador's call for a Clen cutoff level. To quote it:

Clenbuterol, though, is always prohibited,” Van Eenoo said.

“If I took a lot and you tested me an hour later, I might still have a lot in my system, but if you tested me in four or five days, it might be there in small quantities and you wouldn’t know what effect it had had.”

Okay, but they did test Contador in the days before his positive, correct? They found nothing, not higher levels of the drug, but nothing. That says he hadn't had much in his system at all, not enough to be advantageous, and should be a point for his defense. Now yes, one possibility is that he did a blood transfusion and the clen was in the blood that he injected and in that case he's guilty, but unless there's an untested masking agent in play here, Contador didn't take a clinically significant quantity of clen during the tour.

So either the clen came from a blood transfusion and Contador is guilty, or he is innocent and is likely to pay the price anyway. Does that sum up the situation correctly?

 

[_yngve_]

So either the clen came from a blood transfusion and Contador is guilty, or he is innocent and is likely to pay the price anyway. Does that sum up the situation correctly?

I'd phrase it more as: either the clen came from a blood transfusion and Contador is guilty; or he failed to take adequate precautions and/or responsibility for what he puts into his body and unintentionally ran afoul of a strict liability standard and so is likely to pay the price anyway.

All this meat/bag talk presents an explanation for a failed test. It does not (and, unless Pat decides to go way off the rails, cannot) excuse it. In other words, either way, Bert is "guilty" of consuming clen.

 

[patrick767]

I'd phrase it more as: either the clen came from a blood transfusion and Contador is guilty; or he failed to take adequate precautions and/or responsibility for what he puts into his body and unintentionally ran afoul of a strict liability standard and so is likely to pay the price anyway.

All this meat/bag talk presents an explanation for a failed test. It does not (and, unless Pat decides to go way off the rails, cannot) excuse it. In other words, either way, Bert is "guilty" of consuming clen.

You have a point. I'm just saying that the transfusion explanation makes him a doper and I have no sympathy whatsoever. The accidental contamination, under the rules, is very likely to result in him paying the price anyway. If it's the real explanation, it's a huge shame for Contador, who would only be guilty of making a dumb mistake, and for cycling, which would see a rider stripped of his TdF win for something stupid rather than deliberate doping.

Anyway, the tiny amounts of clen they found don't seem to fit any other explanation than these two.

 

[Polyarmour]

You have a point. I'm just saying that the transfusion explanation makes him a doper and I have no sympathy whatsoever. The accidental contamination, under the rules, is very likely to result in him paying the price anyway. If it's the real explanation, it's a huge shame for Contador, who would only be guilty of making a dumb mistake, and for cycling, which would see a rider stripped of his TdF win for something stupid rather than deliberate doping.

Anyway, the tiny amounts of clen they found don't seem to fit any other explanation than these two.

That's the way the rules are structured. The rider is responsible for what they put into their body. The same rules applies to all the other riders who have been suspended due to accidental contamination. I don't see it as a huge shame. Either he is a doper or he is stupid. The pro riders are very careful about what they put into their bodies. Accidental contamination from meat is entirely preventable by being careful about the supply chain. The Astana riders wouldn't even drink water from an unopened bottle for fear of accidental contamination. Yet Alberto eats meat from a polystyrene cooler that has travelled in a car from Spain. Really it's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

 

[Anonymous]

Could Contador be the victim of such natural variation? It should be easy enough to see if this is the case. If he really is innocent, as he claims, he ought to submit to spot testing of urine samples for DEHP metabolites over a period of several days. If the values recorded for his TDF samples were the result of normal variation, that variation should be evident in such a re-test. At least a few of his samples ought to show values in the range of those reported for his TDF samples, while others would be much lower. In other words, the spike reported in his TDF samples would be a natural phenomenon, as shown in other individuals. If this is indeed the case, he will have a very strong argument that the DEHP results do not establish blood doping, which in turn, will strengthen his claim that his CB positive resulted from contaminated meat.

On the other hand, if his samples show no evidence of variation that could account for high DEHP values--if they remain consistently low over a period of several days--then a conclusion of blood doping becomes much stronger. The only alternative explanation would be that he was exposed to some other source of DEHP. But this is unlikely, not only because other sources that can account for such high levels are rare, but because the exposure was temporary. It’s difficult to imagine what he could have done during a TDF--when he spent most of his time either racing or in a hotel room--that would have brought him into contact with high levels of DEHP, and only on one particular day.

Regardless of the outcome of the Contador case, I think there are some serious problems with the proposed DEHP test for blood doping. Others have pointed out that athletes could avoid excessive exposure by storing blood in containers that have much lower levels of DEHP than commonly-used blood bags. But even if all transfusions took place with DEHP-containing blood bags, interpreting results may be very difficult, given the variability of metabolite levels. Possibly, a clear-cut difference between transfuses and non-transfuses can be defined by taking 24 hour samples, averaging out variations over time, as in Segura’s study. But it’s very difficult to obtain such samples from athletes; normally, a spot sample is taken. And of course, all samples currently stored from earlier events are of this kind.

My question for this is, would not a fluctuation in DEHP over time be context specific, and would not the test you propose have to be carried out so that Contador had to go through the exact same routine and contacts he did during the race? DEHP is not a naturally produced by the body, therefore the level in our urine must come form an outside source. You would have to exactly replicate his entire week from the TdF to replicate the test you propose. That is impossible.

 

[Paco_P]

Don't let anybody tell you to listen to anything. If you feel like being biased you're perfectly welcome - it's actually a pretty popular pastime for countless people... Even quite a well paying job for many.

You're right too. There's absolutely no reason to believe Contador's story. That's not in contradiction with the statement that it's not completely ludicrous (although it still seems to me completely ludicrous).

Here's a serious question: why do we care? It seems all of us with common sense are convinced that essentially all riders in the big tours (in all the professional races?) are doping in some way ... It seems the real problem is how to create an environment in which they wouldn't want to - and that seems damn near impossible as long as there is money involved - at least not without implicating state authorities more seriously in what would be a tremendous waste of public resources (is doping in cycling really a social problem meriting government attention? in sports at all? if sports want to be professional wrestling, what's the problem? Some of us don't watch professional wrestling, and soon we'll stop watching boxing, cycling, and track and field too, not to mention football in all its forms, etc. - I mean who seriously thinks that Lance Armstrong is any more doped than Lebron James?).

 

[Merckx index]

My question for this is, would not a fluctuation in DEHP over time be context specific, and would not the test you propose have to be carried out so that Contador had to go through the exact same routine and contacts he did during the race? DEHP is not a naturally produced by the body, therefore the level in our urine must come form an outside source. You would have to exactly replicate his entire week from the TdF to replicate the test you propose. That is impossible.

That's a good question, and underscores the problem with this test. Many studies of DEHP have been carried out. In some cases the subjects worked in specific professions where it was expected their exposure to the substance was higher than normal; in other studies, subjects were used without addressing the question of their normal routines. In all cases, DEHP is found in the body, and the differences between individuals who might be exposed to higher environmental levels and those who are not is not that great. That is, most individuals in any study have relatively low levels (around 50 ng/ml) of certain metabolites. There are outliers in these groups with much higher values, and there are individuals who tested at one time have much higher values than when tested at another time. But these differences do not seem to correlate very much with environmental exposure.

IOW, I'd be very surprised if the TDF environment, by itself, had much effect on DEHP levels. Indeed, since the riders are outdoors so much of the time, if anything, I would think exposure from the air, for example, would be much less. Maybe the procedure for preparing and eating food could contribute, but I think it unlikely it would result in much higher values.