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Is your contention, anyone who can win one TDF can win two, three etc? What I'm saying about Andy is, I think we all agree Andy had more than a shot at winning TDF'10, save for a dropped chain; but he couldn't recover the time. (Same year btw, contador got popped) So yes, anyone can win one TDF, even lance and not be heard from again. So maybe lance had one clean TDF win in him, maybe that was even wishful thinking from Tyler, who knows.
The thing with lance was no one knew for sure except lance whether or not he came to TDF already dopping. Me, I think he was dopping as a swimmer. The guy's a consummate liar.