I think Levi's deluding himself

[Publicus]

Don't 4get the "caveat", as you call it, of Bjarne Riis. Funny, once you throw his name in there it's amazing how dumb the whole conversation is!

I'm not forgetting anyone. I don't consider Lance or RadioShack AC's biggest threats for next year. They'll have to get in line behind Saxo, Liquigas and possibly Cervelo (depending on Sastre's form).

 

[Publicus]

Not always.Conti was the strongest this year but you also need some luck to help get you through

I should have added that to the caveats (barring injury, illness, bonking, etc., etc.,), but I take your point.

 

[cyclegeek]

I'm not forgetting anyone. I don't consider Lance or RadioShack AC's biggest threats for next year. They'll have to get in line behind Saxo, Liquigas and possibly Cervelo (depending on Sastre's form).

No doubt AS with the Saxo team has to be considered the fav. My point was that you single out exceptions, Landis and the chicken, but fail to include Riis, why?

 

[Mellow Velo]

Levi has obviously seen what's on Lance's menu and fancies his chances, given the same diet.

Seriously, so many old guys.
Surely, at least one, or maybe a couple, will not be as competitive, next season?
What are the odds of them all attaining new "peaks", so late in their careers and shouldn't this set alarm bells ringing?

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'm not forgetting anyone. I don't consider Lance or RadioShack AC's biggest threats for next year. They'll have to get in line behind Saxo, Liquigas and possibly Cervelo (depending on Sastre's form).

Liquigas, will be going down your list as according to "Mountain Goat" Kreuziger is going to OP Lotto

Cervelo have got their fingers in too many pies, i thought sastre was undecided about doing the tour. I thought he was considering doing the giro and vuelta.

 

[cyclegeek]

Levi has obviously seen what's on Lance's menu and fancies his chances, given the same diet.

Seriously, so many old guys.
Surely, at least one, or maybe a couple, will not be as competitive, next season?
What are the odds of them all attaining new "peaks", so late in their careers and shouldn't this set alarm bells ringing?

It's obvious to me that you only have one thing in your diet, and it's boring. Maybe that should set off an alarm bell. Your inferences and finger pointing is out dated. Find a new line of conversation maybe one thats relevent.

 

[Publicus]

No doubt AS with the Saxo team has to be considered the fav. My point was that you single out exceptions, Landis and the chicken, but fail to include Riis, why?

Riis wasn't busted back when he won and stripped of his title resulting in the podium shifting (e.g., 2006) or being kicked out of the race while leading (e.g., 2007).

 

[Publicus]

Liquigas, will be going down your list as according to "Mountain Goat" Kreuziger is going to OP Lotto

Cervelo have got their fingers in too many pies, i thought sastre was undecided about doing the tour. I thought he was considering doing the giro and vuelta.

Cervelo is a big question mark right now, but if Sastre is in form, I like his chances in the Pyrenees.

 

[cyclegeek]

Riis wasn't busted back when he won and stripped of his title resulting in the podium shifting (e.g., 2006) or being kicked out of the race while leading (e.g., 2007).

Oh, I guess thats O.K.

 

[Ferminal]

Only YOU know who YOU are!

Yes that's comforting to know.

But then again you're just a **** stirrer, please maintain a high standard (see thehog).

 

[richwagmn]

Good point about AC showing up to the Tour of Cali, just showing up and having fun would definitely cause RS some consternation!

AC would only do it if it would help win the TDF. If not, he just doesn't seem to care.

The guy seems very grounded and centered to me. He knows what he wants to do. focuses all of his energies on the task and everything else is just noise.

 

[cyclegeek]

Yes that's comforting to know.

But then again you're just a **** stirrer, please maintain a high standard (see thehog).

HA. Are you joking?

 

[Ferminal]

HA. Are you joking?

Not sure what you mean, **** stirrers can be entertaining, but it's a fine line between moronic and intriguing. thehog was initially on the moronic side but is useful these days.

 

[Angliru]

That pretty much sums up Levi. With a bit of luck he may have won the 07 Tour but he didn't and that was his final chance. Also in the 1st or 2nd mountain stage of that Tour didn't Contador have a mechanical too, got dropped from the group he was in, started going again when the group Levi was in joined up with him and then Contador rode away from that group.

Exactly, a performance that left Leipheimer working for Contador the rest of the Tour. Each and every time that Leipheimer has been given the leadership in a grand tour he has failed to bring home the victory. I accept that winning a grand tour is quite difficult but it seems to me that his current MO is to sneak in under the radar and snatch a Tour win while the contenders are watching each other. His best performances in grand tours have come while riding in the service of another. This tells me that the pressure of leadership over the course of 3 weeks is more than he can handle. He had his opportunity in the 2009 Giro: he didn't produce. While at Gerolsteiner and Rabobank he wasn't able to reach the podium while in a leadership role.

 

[flicker]

its not levis fault.

it is not levis fault that he cannot cut the mustard in the GTs. He is preoccupied with saving feral cats and premoting road id.

 

[richwagmn]

it is not levis fault that he cannot cut the mustard in the GTs. He is preoccupied with saving feral cats and premoting road id.

That's cold man...

 

[Anonymous]

Contador's time trialing took a big step up this year, so using previous GTs when Leecheimer was close to Contador does not work.

How does it not work? It's just speculation. Pretty much every comment in this forum is about a rider using past GTs as a reference for their current capabilities, so should we not use one-year old data to enhance our statement?

I don't understand why AC's TT ability in 2009 is so highly rated when his TT achievements have been in (a) Spanish stage races early in the season competing against climbers (b) A spanish TT championship with LLSanchez as his biggest threat, and (c) two short hilly TTs at the Tour 09..

Don't get me wrong, AC can do a super TT when it's less than 40k, but in a pancake flat 50km TT at the end of a GT, he hasn't been tested against a guy like Levi in recent times, which is why I am speculating that he will lose 2 mins. I'm more than happy for AC to prove me wrong

 

[Publicus]

How does it not work? It's just speculation. Pretty much every comment in this forum is about a rider using past GTs as a reference for their current capabilities, so should we not use one-year old data to enhance our statement?

I don't understand why AC's TT ability in 2009 is so highly rated when his TT achievements have been in (a) Spanish stage races early in the season competing against climbers (b) A spanish TT championship with LLSanchez as his biggest threat, and (c) two short hilly TTs at the Tour 09..

Don't get me wrong, AC can do a super TT when it's less than 40k, but in a pancake flat 50km TT at the end of a GT, he hasn't been tested against a guy like Levi in recent times, which is why I am speculating that he will lose 2 mins. I'm more than happy for AC to prove me wrong

The reason why it doesn't work (for me) is he has improved since your reference point. It's one thing if he continued to struggle (relatively speaking) in the TT, but he's shown considerable improvement in 2008 and 2009. It would not be unreasonable to expect he improves a bit more (especially if he prepares for the type of TT he will face at the TdF).

But another important qualification is that assuming all works out correctly, Levi will have wasted/buried himself on Lance's behalf in the mountains. And let's not forget he will go for the win at the ToC and Dauphine. I just don't see him having the legs to bury AC by two minutes. What makes you think that after doing that, he'll still be able to put two minutes into AC?

I don't expect AC to win the final TT (Levi could beat him) but I also don't expect him to lose 2 minutes to any GC contender (however remotely LL's podium chances may be).

 

[BYOP88]

but in a pancake flat 50km TT at the end of a GT, he hasn't been tested against a guy like Levi in recent times, which is why I am speculating that he will lose 2 mins. I'm more than happy for AC to prove me wrong

Yeah but Levi isn't as good at TT's over 50km looking at his record in the TdF.

Not sure if these were pan flat TT's, I'm guessing a few had some bumps and stuff but a few must have been flat(ish).

TdF Stage 9 2002, Lanester-Lorient 52KM
17 Beat Zberg (Swi) Rabobank 2.23
18 Victor Hugo Pena Grisales (Col) US Postal Service 2.34
19 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 2.35
20 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 2.36
21 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 2.41
22 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 2.43
23 Bradley McGee (Aus) FDJeux.com 2.44
24 Pedro Horillo (Spa) Mapei-Quick Step 2.45

TdF Stage 19 2002, Régnié-Durette-Mâcon 50KM
12 Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) Cofidis 2.54
13 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 3.01
14 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 3.12
15 Bradley McGee (Aus) FDJeux.com 3.22
16 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 3.36
17 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 3.37
18 Marc Wauters (Bel) Rabobank 3.39

TdF Stage 19 2004, Besançon-Besançon 60KM
9 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.40
10 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.49
11 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.56
12 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 4.06
13 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 4.17
14 Aitor Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo 4.33
15 José I.Gutierrez Palacios (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 4.53

TdF Stage 19 2005, Saint-Étienne-Saint-Étienne 55KM
12 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 3.10
13 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 3.11
14 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 3.13
15 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 3.25
16 Sebastian Lang (Ger) Gerolsteiner 3.26
17 Luke Roberts (Aus) Team CSC 3.47


TdF Stage 7 2006, Saint-Grégoire-Rennes 52KM
93 Mirko Celestino (Ita) Milram 5.57.83
94 Gorka Verdugo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 6.00.22
95 Samuel Plouhinec (Fra) Agritubel 6.04.52
96 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 6.05.46
97 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) Crédit Agricole 6.07.18
98 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Team CSC 6.08.14

TdF Stage 19 2006, Le Creusot-Montceau-les-Mines 56KM
31 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 5.39
32 José Azevedo (Por) Discovery Channel 5.48
33 Cyril Dessel (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 5.58
34 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 6.02
35 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Bouygues Telecom 6.18

TdF stage 13 2007, Albi 54KM
7 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.18
8 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 2.38
9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.39
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 2.42
11 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 2.55

TdF stage 19 2007, Cognac-Angoulême 55.5KM
1 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 1.02.44

So not exactly a great record for Levi is it?

Sorry for the length of post.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Yeah but Levi isn't as good at TT's over 50km looking at his record in the TdF.

Not sure if these were pan flat TT's, I'm guessing a few had some bumps and stuff but a few must have been flat(ish).

TdF Stage 9 2002, Lanester-Lorient 52KM
17 Beat Zberg (Swi) Rabobank 2.23
18 Victor Hugo Pena Grisales (Col) US Postal Service 2.34
19 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 2.35
20 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 2.36
21 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 2.41
22 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo 2.43
23 Bradley McGee (Aus) FDJeux.com 2.44
24 Pedro Horillo (Spa) Mapei-Quick Step 2.45

TdF Stage 19 2002, Régnié-Durette-Mâcon 50KM
12 Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) Cofidis 2.54
13 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank 3.01
14 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 3.12
15 Bradley McGee (Aus) FDJeux.com 3.22
16 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 3.36
17 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com 3.37
18 Marc Wauters (Bel) Rabobank 3.39

TdF Stage 19 2004, Besançon-Besançon 60KM
9 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.40
10 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.49
11 George Hincapie (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.56
12 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Rabobank 4.06
13 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 4.17
14 Aitor Gonzalez Jimenez (Spa) Fassa Bortolo 4.33
15 José I.Gutierrez Palacios (Spa) Illes Balears - Banesto 4.53

TdF Stage 19 2005, Saint-Étienne-Saint-Étienne 55KM
12 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC 3.10
13 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Credit Agricole 3.11
14 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 3.13
15 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 3.25
16 Sebastian Lang (Ger) Gerolsteiner 3.26
17 Luke Roberts (Aus) Team CSC 3.47


TdF Stage 7 2006, Saint-Grégoire-Rennes 52KM
93 Mirko Celestino (Ita) Milram 5.57.83
94 Gorka Verdugo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 6.00.22
95 Samuel Plouhinec (Fra) Agritubel 6.04.52
96 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 6.05.46
97 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) Crédit Agricole 6.07.18
98 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Team CSC 6.08.14

TdF Stage 19 2006, Le Creusot-Montceau-les-Mines 56KM
31 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 5.39
32 José Azevedo (Por) Discovery Channel 5.48
33 Cyril Dessel (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance 5.58
34 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 6.02
35 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Bouygues Telecom 6.18

TdF stage 13 2007, Albi 54KM
7 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.18
8 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 2.38
9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.39
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 2.42
11 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 2.55

TdF stage 19 2007, Cognac-Angoulême 55.5KM
1 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 1.02.44

So not exactly a great record for Levi is it?

Sorry for the length of post.

The only time Levi cracked the Top 10 was under the expert tutelage of the Hog. Once again, this proves Bruyneel's genius. Or something like that.

 

[derailleur]

Scenario 1: Levi trains to peak at the ToC and LA helps him there, as he plans to peak at the TdF, where Levi helps him. Both win.

Scenario 2: Levi trains to peak at the TdF and tells LA he can have the ToC. LA still uses the ToC as a training race, coming in the top 10 with Levi's help, then goes on to win the TdF regardless of what Levi does there, and Levi wins nothing.

This is exacerbated by the move of the ToC to coincide with the Giro, right before the TdF, making it a training ride and not a risking ride for any TdF podium contenders.

But that also creates another scenario in which one of the two men goes to the ToC and the other goes to the Giro. That won't change anything about the TdF, so it's an aesthetic modification of scenario 2. And I don't think it's reasonable, as I believe both riders have committed to the ToC already.

Conclusion: either Levi is trying to confuse the rest of the teams, or he's been drinking chain lube.

 

[flicker]

I have heard that Levi is high in the Transyllvanian alps working with Dr. Frankenstein. Soon he will have a new heart. The VO2 capacity will be "epic".

 

[Mellow Velo]

The only time Levi cracked the Top 10 was under the expert tutelage of the Hog. Once again, this proves Bruyneel's genius. Or something like that.

His second 2007 ITT sticks out like a bad set of passport numbers.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Scenario 1: Levi trains to peak at the ToC and LA helps him there, as he plans to peak at the TdF, where Levi helps him. Both win.

Scenario 2: Levi trains to peak at the TdF and tells LA he can have the ToC. LA still uses the ToC as a training race, coming in the top 10 with Levi's help, then goes on to win the TdF regardless of what Levi does there, and Levi wins nothing.

I think we're a little far out on the limb on Scenario 2, and that limb's a little weak.