Del Toro is obviously the big favorite at this point, although there's some uncertainty about him.
On paper, Ayuso is the first challenger, but he has looked unimpressive lately, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish outside the podium.
Carapaz I actually think is the second biggest favorite. He's going so well at the moment and his engine is just getting warm.
S. Yates and Gee have no chance of winning as their level just isn't good enough, but I wouldn't be surprised to see either on the podium. Same can be said for Arensman except for the podium part.
Bernal looks good but I don't think he has the stamina. He seems to run out of gas pretty quickly.
It's a shame that Tiberi lost time yesterday, as he has looked very solid, and if the win was unrealistic before, it's impossible now.
Roglic looks horrible, and I don't see a comeback coming. Top 10 is likely, but a DNF is more likely.