Il Lombardia 2019, one day classic, October 12

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****Roglic, Woods
***Valverde, Nibali, Bernal
**Fuglsang, Gilbert, Yates
*Formolo, Visconti, Ulissi, Higuita, Chaves, Gaudu
Replace Buchmann with Gilbert.

Gilbert is an amazing rider who has won "easier" editions of this race twice with a better climbing form. But he has no chance on a route with the hard part of Civiglio as a key ascent and Ghisallo and Sormano combined.
 
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But he [Gilbert] has no chance on a route with the hard part of Civiglio as a key ascent and Ghisallo and Sormano combined.
same as Visconti. In general, the field seems to be way "worse" than usual though, both in terms of riders on the start list, as well as their form - apart from Woods, I don't really see anyone entering this in stellar shape. So we may get to see some surprises
 
Bad field? I don't really think so.

The last two years, this race has been a foregone conclusion and it's nice that it doesn't seem like that's the case this year.

Of course, Roglic may just ride away from everyone and their dog but I don't think he will be able to do that. I wouldn't bet against him in a sprint, though, even against Valverde. Maybe Higuita can beat him if it comes down to that but not really any others.

I don't really get the hype around Buchmann from the last couple of posts but Bora have a pretty amazing team with him, Konrad, Majka, Schachmann, Formolo and Mühlberger. Their problem is that not a lot of the riders are near the top form (especially not Mühlberger and Schachmann).

Groupama is another team with an impressive depth. They had Gaudu, Molard and Madouas in the group that was deviated from the route in Tre Valli Varesine, and they will all line up at the side of Reichenbach. They may be without their main attraction but it's not unthinkable that they can defend Pinot's victory.

I also think that Chaves deserves a mention. He was impressive in Yorkshire where he just kept being in the peloton until a mechanical took him out despite his tiny stature in the cold weather. He has only ridden Emilia since then and is a former winner here. Furthermore, his post Grand Tour-level has been fearsome in the past and maybe he is finally edging towards his former level. He is here with in-form Jack Haig and Adam Yates, and I expect them to feature prominently in the finale.

But the biggest favourites to me remain Roglic, Valverde, Woods (with Higuita as an interesting side-kick), Fuglsang and Nibali.
 
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Foregone conclusion last year? Really?

And this year Roglic is reaaaaally just one of the favorites.
Yes, I couldn't imagine Pinot not winning. Just like I couldn't imagine Nibali not winning in 2017 or Fuglsang not winning LBL this year.

They were all clearly the rider with the best climbing form and just had to ride away on the final climb, and they all did.

And what's the Roglic reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally only one of the favourites supposed to insinuate? Didn't I just write that?
 
Bad field? I don't really think so.
well, for the past years we have always had guys like Pinot, Uran, Alaphilippe, Dan Martin, Nibali peaking for this, and they are either not around at all, or not at their best currently.

Basically, if you look at those names who finished on the podium over the past 5 years (Pinot, Nibali, Teuns, Alaphilippe, Moscon, Chaves, Rosa, Uran, Moreno, Dan Martin, Valverde, Costa) it looks likely to me, that neither of those will end up on there tomorrow.
 
Yes, I couldn't imagine Pinot not winning. Just like I couldn't imagine Nibali not winning in 2017 or Fuglsang not winning LBL this year.

They were all clearly the rider with the best climbing form and just had to ride away on the final climb, and they all did.

And what's the Roglic reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally only one of the favourites supposed to insinuate? Didn't I just write that?
I think Roglic is one of the hottest favorites I've ever seen going into Il Lombardia, apart maybe from Nibali in 2017
 
Not sure how to rate the field cause I think Il Lombardia with the current route has a fairly big group of 'contenders' that could realistically top 5 or top 10 but also a really narrow range of contenders who actually have a reasonably big shot at winning.
 
I think Roglic is one of the hottest favorites I've ever seen going into Il Lombardia, apart maybe from Nibali in 2017
I don't think so. He is the favorite, but not that hot imo. He's unproven over a long distance and very hard race and you can't become a specialist for these kind of races all of a sudden. It's a process, it takes time. Not that I would be surprised if he wins, but for my money he won't win.
 
well, for the past years we have always had guys like Pinot, Uran, Alaphilippe, Dan Martin, Nibali peaking for this, and they are either not around at all, or not at their best currently.

Basically, if you look at those names who finished on the podium over the past 5 years (Pinot, Nibali, Teuns, Alaphilippe, Moscon, Chaves, Rosa, Uran, Moreno, Dan Martin, Valverde, Costa) it looks likely to me, that neither of those will end up on there tomorrow.
At least two of them could actually win, so I don't get your logic...
 
Plus everyone is expecting for favorites to just battle it out at the end, but it might not come to that. In Tre Valli Roglic had a chance to win because the other favorties took that wrong turn. So with clever attacks from far everyone can be a surprise winner.
 
I don't think so. He is the favorite, but not that hot imo. He's unproven over a long distance and very hard race and you can't become a specialist for these kind of races all of a sudden. It's a process, it takes time. Not that I would be surprised if he wins, but for my money he won't win.
Emilia is a very hard race and he destroyed everyone like pretty much never before in that race. He easily has the climbing chops, and there's no big trend he struggles with 6h + races except one Lombardia where he basically went full kamikaze on the Muro di Sormano. On the other hand the stage he won in Tirreno last year was over 6 hours. He wasn't any worse on the Civiglio stage than in the rest of the Giro.

Sure Roglic is not like Nibali where the longer and harder a race is the better, but the huge margin by which he crushed the opposition in Emilia suggests to me he enough margin to overcome that.
 
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Plus everyone is expecting for favorites to just battle it out at the end, but it might not come to that. In Tre Valli Roglic had a chance to win because the other favorties took that wrong turn. So with clever attacks from far everyone can be a surprise winner.
It's far more difficult to have a surprise winner in Lombardia than in TVV. Especially if you have a couple of strong teams to control the race (Jumbo Visma, Ineos). The winner is usually decided between the strongest riders in the race.
 
A lot of talk about Roglic but Woods been really good too this week so far. Was with Fuglsang and Formolo for a long time in Liege in the final, until Fuglsang was gone with the incredible form he had that time.
Maybe this time he'll apply the secret weapon of... taking off both leg-warmers!*

*I have no scientific data on the effect on power-output when only wearing one leg-warmer.
 
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