Il Lombardia 2023

[Red Rick]

Think that's a much less likely scenario without Sormano coming before it. No Sormano makes the Como finish really easy to control for UAE.

Race length. His trackrecord at monument-length races is way too extensive to excuse the amount of times he's underwhelmed in them.

Conveniently the monument length race is always the last race does before a long rest.

One time it wasn't he won Liege and sprinted for 2nd at the Worlds.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

One time it wasn't he won Liege and sprinted for 2nd at the Worlds.

Would have been a 3rd place at best had Alaphilippe not lost his mind in the sprint, and he finished dead last in a group of 5 at that WC. So even on the rare occasion he's climbed (almost) with the best in a race of this length, he hasn't had the sprint to back it up. So even his best results in comparable races don't exactly inspire confidence in his ability to either drop or outsprint Pogacar.

Also, the Olympic RR was very much not at the end of a racing block, and he did have the legs to win the TT four days after. Same goes for the 2018 WCRR.

 

[AmRacer]

Are you gonna edit the opening post to include the route once it gets out?

Hi, I'll try.

 

[Red Rick]

Would have been a 3rd place at best had Alaphilippe not lost his mind in the sprint, and he finished dead last in a group of 5 at that WC. So even on the rare occasion he's climbed (almost) with the best in a race of this length, he hasn't had the sprint to back it up. So even his best results in comparable races don't exactly inspire confidence in his ability to either drop or outsprint Pogacar.

Also, the Olympic RR was very much not at the end of a racing block, and he did have the legs to win the TT four days after. Same goes for the 2018 WCRR.

Back injury mate.

I do think Rog's flat sprint in general isn't that good cause he's not very aerodynamic and his 1 minute power is a lot better than his 15s power

 

[Netserk]

Same goes for the 2018 WCRR.

When he crashed with over 60 km to go and that was it.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I do think Rog's flat sprint in general isn't that good cause he's not very aerodynamic and his 1 minute power is a lot better than his 15s power

Then how do you expect him to beat Pogacar in the first place? Because even his best monuments were not at a level where you'd expect him to drop him.

 

[Red Rick]

Then how do you expect him to beat Pogacar in the first place? Because even his best monuments were not at a level where you'd expect him to drop him.

Drop him, potentially. Pogacar really only outclassed everyone else in 2 of his 4 monument wins, in the Liege he won he got dropped initially on RaF and then in last years Lombardia, when he did a longer prep for Lombardia he couldn't drop Enric Mas and finished in the same group as one day legend Mikel Landa.

Lombardia is still extremely dependent on end of season form, so Pogacar winning isn't that much of a fait accompli to me.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Pinot...

 

[RedheadDane]

Pinot...

Wonderful as that would be, he's not gonna win...

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Pinot...

Dont make us start dreaming, shame on you!

 

[Izzyeviel]

Wonderful as that would be, he's not gonna win...

we said the same about Zaugg...

 

[RedheadDane]

we said the same about Zaugg...

Zaugg was basically an unknown.
Pinot is a well-known, who's just not the same as he used to be.

Don't get me wrong; I'd love for Pinot to win, would be an absolutely brilliant way for him to end his career, but I think we gotta be realistical here.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

we said the same about Zaugg...

Did anyone ever say that they don‘t think Zaugg‘s gonna win? Why would one say that?

 

[RedheadDane]

Did anyone ever say that they don‘t think Zaugg‘s gonna win? Why would one say that?

Good point. Probably more a case of nobody even talking about it.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I don't see Kevin Vermaerke winning this (the startlist is a bit thin for stating out Zaugg non-predictions at this point in time.)

 

[RedheadDane]

I don't think Simon Pellaud is gonna win either...

 

[Blanco]

Primoz Roglic will win this bike race.

 

[ashhutch1997]

They might as well not bother finishing in Como if Sormano is out, such and beautiful and iconic part of the race gone.
They do descents in other big races which are far worse IMO.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

They might as well not bother finishing in Como if Sormano is out, such and beautiful and iconic part of the race gone.
They do descents in other big races which are far worse IMO.

The other thing I don’t get is why they can’t just put up a net in that one corner. It’s the only hairy point in that descent and it’s also hardly an unreasonable amount of effort considering that you’re organising a freaking monument.

 

[tobydawq]

Zaugg was basically an unknown.
Pinot is a well-known, who's just not the same as he used to be.

Don't get me wrong; I'd love for Pinot to win, would be an absolutely brilliant way for him to end his career, but I think we gotta be realistical here.

Far less realistic things have certainly happened.

 

[Gigs_98]

Pogacar is obviously the favorite but I agree it's not extremely clear cut. It's just that Roglic isn't usually that inspiring in long one day races, Evenepoel is looking shaky at the Vuelta and it's hard to see anyone else beating him. I think Pogacar will win but I wouldn't be surprised if it's in a sprint against riders he couldn't drop.

 

[RedheadDane]

Far less realistic things have certainly happened.

Don't make me dream!

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Pogacar is obviously the favorite but I agree it's not extremely clear cut. It's just that Roglic isn't usually that inspiring in long one day races, Evenepoel is looking shaky at the Vuelta and it's hard to see anyone else beating him. I think Pogacar will win but I wouldn't be surprised if it's in a sprint against riders he couldn't drop.

@Ilmaestro99 this is your time to tell Gigs who can beat Pogacar.

 

[staubsauger]

Atilla Valter to do a Bobrik!

 

[CyclistAbi]

Best to see the route first. Before speculating on who might as well win this year.

P.S. And the list of participants wouldn't be all that bad either.