Il Lombardia 2023

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Who will win and why?

  • Tadej Pogačar

    Votes: 69 53.5%
  • Remco Evenepoel

    Votes: 20 15.5%
  • Someone else

    Votes: 40 31.0%

  • Total voters
    129
If it is the only mountains classic it should have more mountains or a bit harder mountains.

Lombardia was never a 'mountains classic' in the sense of the Ventoux challenge for example, it has historically presented either a route with some medium mountains like this year or some hills like last year but the pure climbers can still do pretty well like Mas or Landa showed us last year.

Pogačar is obvious favourite for this race, he has won the race, the two times he has started and also has the best combination of climbing ability, endurance and sprint. However if Remco and Roglič show up close to top shape they will be dangerous. UAE can also play the numbers card with guys like Adam Yates or Hirschi, interesting to see Ayuso rides it too.
 
I dislike this route with a passion. I don't think Civiglio-SFDB is perfect either, but at least those two climbs have a nice flow. And when it comes to finishes in Bergamo, 2016 is such an obvious example for how to do it better. This finish...it's all about one climb and then that climb isn't even exciting.

Is it @Netserk who is a strong proponent of Madonna-Sormano-SFDB (so skipping Civiglio)? Whoever it is, I was rather opposed to the idea for some time because as a big Nibali fan I will always have a soft spot for Civiglio, but the more I think of it, the more I think it's by far the best option out there. The racing would start much earlier, the Muro di Sormano would actually become a crucial point of the race, and I think the long flat section before the final climb might actually make the race more open to riders who aren't pure climbers again.
 
Is it @Netserk who is a strong proponent of Madonna-Sormano-SFDB (so skipping Civiglio)? Whoever it is, I was rather opposed to the idea for some time because as a big Nibali fan I will always have a soft spot for Civiglio, but the more I think of it, the more I think it's by far the best option out there. The racing would start much earlier, the Muro di Sormano would actually become a crucial point of the race, and I think the long flat section before the final climb might actually make the race more open to riders who aren't pure climbers again.
The other option is to go Ghisallo-Sormano-Ghisallo and skip both Civiglio and San Fermo. It makes the most historic climb the focal point, it forces a longer finale, and you can throw in some hills between Ghisallo and Como to play the Tiegemberg or Geulhemmerberg-Bemelerberg role of hindering any larger chasing groups and providing launchpads for late attacks.

Example route:
34l5EoR.png


This would be my preferred option for a Como finish, and also a Lecco finish if it ever happens again. As for Bergamo, you can’t really improve on the 2016 route, and it’s a crying shame that the current iterations of both finishes are so much worse than what we had in the second half of the 2010s.
 
The other option is to go Ghisallo-Sormano-Ghisallo and skip both Civiglio and San Fermo. It makes the most historic climb the focal point, it forces a longer finale, and you can throw in some hills between Ghisallo and Como to play the Tiegemberg or Geulhemmerberg-Bemelerberg role of hindering any larger chasing groups and providing launchpads for late attacks.

Example route:
34l5EoR.png


This would be my preferred option for a Como finish, and also a Lecco finish if it ever happens again. As for Bergamo, you can’t really improve on the 2016 route, and it’s a crying shame that the current iterations of both finishes are so much worse than what we had in the second half of the 2010s.
I think the 2018 route worked out well, without San Fermo (I think roadworks at the time?). If memory serves me correct the race winning break went away over Sormano.
If they finish in Bergemo, then I have no idea why they wouldn't do the 2016 route, that was a fabulous race.
 
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Why do you keep saying that? It's not that impossible, the guy was 5th in the Giro and has won the race before.

I know it's not impossible, but... err...

tadej-pogacar-2023.jpeg

When Pinot won the race, he was at the height of his career, now... things are different.

Of course, I would love to be wrong, but I don't wanna get my hopes up. Mainly I just hope to see him race and aggressive race, no matter what the final result is.
 
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I dislike this route with a passion. I don't think Civiglio-SFDB is perfect either, but at least those two climbs have a nice flow. And when it comes to finishes in Bergamo, 2016 is such an obvious example for how to do it better. This finish...it's all about one climb and then that climb isn't even exciting.

Is it @Netserk who is a strong proponent of Madonna-Sormano-SFDB (so skipping Civiglio)? Whoever it is, I was rather opposed to the idea for some time because as a big Nibali fan I will always have a soft spot for Civiglio, but the more I think of it, the more I think it's by far the best option out there. The racing would start much earlier, the Muro di Sormano would actually become a crucial point of the race, and I think the long flat section before the final climb might actually make the race more open to riders who aren't pure climbers again.
I’m a strong proponent of Muro di Sormano before Ghisallo and the easy side of Civiglio like in the 00s. Alternatively, Sormano in the opposite direction before Ghisallo if the descent is off-limits.

As mentioned in another thread, I think Ganda would work well if it was followed by the full Selvino ascent.

 
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