In a lot of ways this is going to be the rematch of Lombardia 2021. Just like in 2021, Pogačar, Roglič and Remco are present and the course is almost the same but while Pogačar beat Roglič comfortably back then and Remco was just a non-factor, I expect things to be significantly different this time around.
Pogačar is still my favourite, he won the race in the last two and although he doesn't at his absolute best, he is almost undroppable on a parcours like this and his sprint is always a weapon at the end of a hilly one-day race. Plus, having Adam Yates (who was third on this sane parcours in 2021) gives UAE another solid option.
Roglič is also a favourite for this, his record in Lombardia is not the best (far from the worst though) he was 8th and 4th in 2019 and 2021 after winning the Giro dell'Emilia the weekend before, but it would be foolish to write him off and his sprint is also a weapon. Lack of team strength could be a problem, especially if the race becomes more tactical.
Remco is the big unknown amongst the trio of favourites. Unlike Pogačar and Roglič, we don't know if he is in good shape or not but despite having been just 18th in 2021, he is definitely a better rider nowadays than he was back then, so although I don't think these 20 minute climbs suit as well as Liège's 5 minute efforts, he should still be in the mix and could win the race in a reduced sprint just like the other two. Quick-Step brings an incredibly strong team here, especially Bagioli and Van Wilder that won races this week and are serious outsiders for the win.
Looking elsewhere, EF brings a great team, Carapaz is looking to save his season and looked very strong recently, Healy can also be used to anticipate on the Zamba Alta climb for example and last year's second place finisher Mas is also a strong contender though I have some trouble seeing him winning. Simon Yates, Rodriguez or Landa are also strong outsiders.
While I genuinely believe Remco would beat Pogačar and Roglič is this slightly downhill sprint, I just don't think he will be strong enough to stay close to the best on Passo di Ganda. While I think Pogačar could drop everyone on Passo di Ganda it won't be by much so Carapaz, Roglič and Mas will get back to him and he will need to use his sprint to get a historical third straight Lombardia win!
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram