Il Lombardia 2023

[Devil's Elbow]

Remind me when Evenepoel didn't solo home in a monument the last couple of seasons.

Remind me when Evenepoel had to take on either of Pogacar and Roglic in a monument the last couple of seasons.

 

[tobydawq]

Remind me when Evenepoel had to take on either of Pogacar and Roglic in a monument the last couple of seasons.

Okay, Remco has done four major one-day races in 2022 and 2023. Three out of those four, he won solo in absolutely commanding fashion. Saying that it's wishful thinking that he can win solo on Saturday is just not reasonable, no matter his opposition.

 

[Froome]

Yes, that never happens.

In andre's mind, it happens always.

 

[johnymax]

I'd love Roglic to win, but I have a feeling Carapaz will be the strongest and drop everybody on Passo di Ganda.

 

[Netserk]

Okay, Remco has done four major one-day races in 2022 and 2023. Three out of those four, he won solo in absolutely commanding fashion. Saying that it's wishful thinking that he can win solo on Saturday is just not reasonable, no matter his opposition.

1 victory where he had dropped Pogi would count for more than those three solos in this context.

 

[Bonimenier]

1 victory where he had dropped Pogi would count for more than those three solos in this context.

He rode away over 2 minutes in Wollongong while Pogacar was getting countered by Madouas and Soler on Mount Pleasant.

 

[tobydawq]

1 victory where he had dropped Pogi would count for more than those three solos in this context.

No it wouldn't (and in Wollongong he was free to try to follow).

I'm not saying it's more likely than not that he solos home but it sure as hell is not wishful thinking when he has done it a thousand times already.

And Pogačar has really not been looking that fantastic the last week. And I know it was the same the last two years but even though there is a pattern, it is not a given that he will be at his peak on Saturday.

 

[Berniece]

He rode away over 2 minutes in Wollongong while Pogacar was getting countered by Madouas and Soler on Mount Pleasant.

San Sebastián too in 2022, Pogacar nowhere to be seen

 

[Devil's Elbow]

He rode away over 2 minutes in Wollongong while Pogacar was getting countered by Madouas and Soler on Mount Pleasant.

No it wouldn't (and in Wollongong he was free to try to follow).

If you think Wollongong is in any way comparable to Lombardia, then I really don't know what to tell you. Van der Poel rode really far away from Pogacar to win his Worlds too and that was a more selective race, should he start targeting this race too?

And Pogačar has really not been looking that fantastic the last week. And I know it was the same the last two years but even though there is a pattern, it is not a given that he will be at his peak on Saturday.

IMO he's been better than in the 2021 build-up, and we all know how that ended - on this very route. He is not getting dropped on Ganda.

 

[Bonimenier]

If you think Wollongong is in any way comparable to Lombardia, then I really don't know what to tell you. Van der Poel rode really far away from Pogacar to win his Worlds too and that was a more selective race, should he start targeting this race too?

Not really to the point, is it?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglič by 1s would top all of that. Considering both Pogi and Remco there.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Not really to the point, is it?

Do you think the way he dropped (or 'dropped', it was really a case of tactics) Pogacar in Wollongong is in any way comparable to the way he'd have to drop him in Lombardia? It is very much to the point.

 

[Bonimenier]

Do you think the way he dropped (or 'dropped', it was really a case of tactics) Pogacar in Wollongong is in any way comparable to the way he'd have to drop him in Lombardia? It is very much to the point.

Might wanna read again what post I reacted to before making such bold assumptions.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Might wanna read again what post I reacted to before making such bold assumptions.

Netserk claimed Evenepoel hasn't really dropped Pogacar in any of his big wins and hence doesn't have a comparable solo to a hypothetical one on Saturday. You claimed Wollongong counts as such. I'm asking you in what sense it's comparable. I'm not making bold assumptions, you are very much deflecting though.

 

[tobydawq]

Do you think the way he dropped (or 'dropped', it was really a case of tactics) Pogacar in Wollongong is in any way comparable to the way he'd have to drop him in Lombardia? It is very much to the point.

Why does it suddenly have to happen on Ganda? Aren't you moving the goal posts just a little? Just yesterday we saw how concerned Pogačar and Roglič were about each other. Remco can get away anywhere and if he does, they're not catching him.

And why are you bringing Van der Poel into this? Then I can say that Asgreen beat him in Flanders, who was in turn beaten by Mohorič in that Tour stage, and he was beaten by Aular in the Cro Race so by transitive arguments Aular would be the favourite. It doesn't really add much to the point you're trying to make that it's only in dreamland that Remco can possibly do a solo on Saturday.

 

[Bonimenier]

Netserk claimed Evenepoel hasn't really dropped Pogacar in any of his big wins and hence doesn't have a comparable solo to a hypothetical one on Saturday. You claimed Wollongong counts as such. I'm asking you in what sense it's comparable. I'm not making bold assumptions, you are very much deflecting though.

I'd say it was worse than being dropped. He was scared to go early. Or was it maybe a case of Evenepoel being an unknown rider back then?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Why does it suddenly have to happen on Ganda?

The 2021 race suggests that the big moves are highly unlikely to come before that. He almost certainly isn't riding away on the Selvino descent. Nobody ever manages to make a move on the valley into Bergamo. The best climbers on the bigger climbs don't tend to drop each other on Colle Aperto. Conversely, Pogacar dropped everyone handily on Ganda last time round and the only reason it wasn't a solo all the way from there was Masnada going berserk on the descent. I'm not saying it's completely Ganda or bust, but it is by far the likeliest place for anyone to just ride away. Therefore, if Evenepoel can't launch there, it becomes quite unlikely he wins solo. And I don't think he can launch there.

And why are you bringing Van der Poel into this?

Because his Worlds win is about as relevant to this Lombardia as Evenepoel's.

I'd say it was worse than being dropped. He was scared to go early. Or was it maybe a case of Evenepoel being an unknown rider back then?

Firstly, being scared to go at >200k to go is completely irrelevant at Lombardia. Secondly, letting Evenepoel go because of an unwillingness to go early or because of underestimation is far less strong a predictor of getting dropped by him a second time than getting dropped by him mano a mano would have been.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I think it’s highly unlikely Remco will drop Pogacar (and Roglick) on Ganda. QS should try to shell most of the domestiques of the other teams on Crocetta and Remco should try an attack on the false flat to Zambia Alta. If the Slovenians are looking at each other for a few seconds that might be the chance to build a big enough gap before Ganda.

 

[ice&fire]

I think it’s highly unlikely Remco will drop Pogacar (and Roglick) on Ganda. QS should try to shell most of the domestiques of the other teams on Crocetta and Remco should try an attack on the false flat to Zambia Alta. If the Slovenians are looking at each other for a few seconds that might be the chance to build a big enough gap before Ganda.

I bet one of the Slovenians will be latched to Remco's wheel since the signature control

 

[Big Doopie]

In andre's mind, it happens always.

It pretty much does tho.

Besides I am fond of @Andre ’s ebullient optimism. He has way more courage than I have.

I have to say I am also in awe of @Logic-is-your-friend ’s restraint. You simply find his reactions carefully placed. His silence gives him POWER!!

 

[SHAD0W93]

It pretty much does tho.

Besides I am fond of @Andre ’s ebullient optimism. He has way more courage than I have.

I have to say I am also in awe of @Logic-is-your-friend ’s restraint. You simply find his reactions carefully placed. His silence gives him POWER!!

@Logic-is-your-friend the Grey left us behind but @Logic-is-your-friend the White returned at the turn of the tide.

 

[Big Doopie]

I think it’s highly unlikely Remco will drop Pogacar (and Roglick) on Ganda. QS should try to shell most of the domestiques of the other teams on Crocetta and Remco should try an attack on the false flat to Zambia Alta. If the Slovenians are looking at each other for a few seconds that might be the chance to build a big enough gap before Ganda.

How will QS team drop jumbo or uae team?

Isn’t that basically why Remco needs out of QS?

 

[Tonton]

A gathering is organized on Aperto for Thibaut Pinot's last race. As many as 15 former FdJ riders are expected to be mixed up with hundreds of fans on the climb, so all I want to see is Thibaut attacking there. A win is not a realistic expectation for Tibopino, too many big fishes, but I hope that he's in good form. There will be opportunities.

 

[hayneplane]

A gathering is organized on Aperto for Thibaut Pinot's last race. As many as 15 former FdJ riders are expected to be mixed up with hundreds of fans on the climb, so all I want to see is Thibaut attacking there. A win is not a realistic expectation for Tibopino, too many big fishes, but I hope that he's in good form. There will be opportunities.

That’s pretty cool, kudos to his former teammates for showing up to honour the humble legend.

 

[Sciatic]

A gathering is organized on Aperto for Thibaut Pinot's last race. As many as 15 former FdJ riders are expected to be mixed up with hundreds of fans on the climb, so all I want to see is Thibaut attacking there. A win is not a realistic expectation for Tibopino, too many big fishes, but I hope that he's in good form. There will be opportunities.

That will be an extra highlight to Saturday’s race!