Is Roglic past his prime?

[Cookster15]

Sadly I think yes.

I thought the same of Froome, then 2018 Giro Finestre happened.

I thought the same of Roglic, then Monte Lussari happened in the 2023 Giro.

But I suspect those performances were outliers which concealed an underlying drop in true level.

Then yesterday on San Luca climb, I couldn’t help but think Roglic of old would have bridged to Pidcock along with Del Toro?

 

[CyclistAbi]

@CyclistAbi @CyclistAbi @CyclistAbi

I don't believe Rogla is past his prime and i unfortunately can't vote for any option in the poll as there isn't an option available for Rogla is still No.1.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I don't believe Rogla is past his prime and i unfortunately can't vote for any option in the poll as there isn't an option available for Rogla is still No.1.

Surely that’s option 1, unless you think he put up the best results this year?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Surely that’s option 1, unless you think he put up the best results this year?

Well, Tour and Worlds RR did end up being rather successful in terms of comparing to some of the previous seasons. Form seems to be there for most of the races done this year. Team as a whole still IMHO isn't as consistent it would need to be to take on a team such as Visma. UAE on the other hand likely peaking this season and i assume they won't reach this level next season. RBH on the other hand should start to be represented with more numbers, toward the end of the races, going into season 2026. That IMHO will benefit Rogla in terms of winning races.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Márquez had to be patient on when it comes to win drought and Šeško didn't start scoring straight away either.

Rogla will be fine.

 

[Oldman]

I don't believe Rogla is past his prime and i unfortunately can't vote for any option in the poll as there isn't an option available for Rogla is still No.1.

This thread does seem like an opportunity to just over critique a currently enigmatic rider. He does what he wants and seems pretty good with himself. He'll be deified by rabid fans if he wins some Fall races or written off by those that never thought he would be the King.
Unfortunately, this unproductive category of analysis, separate of each rider's own thread will become the bait click thread for those that need combativeness rather than appreciation of good athletes. It serves the thread creator more than the topic in some strange universe.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Oldman

That and as an opportunity, for the peanut gallery, to come in and claim Rogla is old. No pun intended.

 

[AlpRaid]

He’s done.

Only way he could win the Vuelta is if his competition is the same as Pog’s at 2024 Giro. Probably the weakest field ever assembled.

But I don’t hold out much hope for Remco either, even at Giro. Only way he could beat del Toro is if there is 100kms of flat ITT.

The next generation is not “next” any more. It’s here.

Del Toro, Seixas, Finn. Their full ascendancy depends on Pog, but they will soon be picking off everyone else, at least in terms of GTs.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

This thread does seem like an opportunity to just over critique a currently enigmatic rider. He does what he wants and seems pretty good with himself. He'll be deified by rabid fans if he wins some Fall races or written off by those that never thought he would be the King.
Unfortunately, this unproductive category of analysis, separate of each rider's own thread will become the bait click thread for those that need combativeness rather than appreciation of good athletes. It serves the thread creator more than the topic in some strange universe.

Your lack of self awareness is shocking. Surely you know this forum serves us, not the riders.

 

[hrotha]

Unfortunately, this unproductive category of analysis, separate of each rider's own thread will become the bait click thread for those that need combativeness rather than appreciation of good athletes

Back in the day we had no rider threads, we only had individual threads for individual topics. It encouraged holistic discussion and discouraged cliques. There was relatively little fanboyism. One day people started making rider threads and it's all been downhill since then

Weirdest thing is, you were around to see that too

 

[CyclistAbi]

He’s done.

Only way he could win the Vuelta is if his competition is the same as Pog’s at 2024 Giro. Probably the weakest field ever assembled.

But I don’t hold out much hope for Remco either, even at Giro. Only way he could beat del Toro is if there is 100kms of flat ITT.

The next generation is not “next” any more. It’s here.

Del Toro, Seixas, Finn. Their full ascendancy depends on Pog, but they will soon be picking off everyone else, at least in terms of GTs.

I doubt any of them, the riders you listed, can beat Rogla at a GT anytime soon.

 

[aphronesis]

Back in the day we had no rider threads, we only had individual threads for individual topics. It encouraged holistic discussion and discouraged cliques. There was relatively little fanboyism. One day people started making rider threads and it's all been downhill since then

Weirdest thing is, you were around to see that too

So you’re saying race analysis has declined with that cult tendency? (Not that I doubt you.)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This thread does seem like an opportunity to just over critique a currently enigmatic rider. He does what he wants and seems pretty good with himself. He'll be deified by rabid fans if he wins some Fall races or written off by those that never thought he would be the King.
Unfortunately, this unproductive category of analysis, separate of each rider's own thread will become the bait click thread for those that need combativeness rather than appreciation of good athletes. It serves the thread creator more than the topic in some strange universe.

Thread creator is one of the forum's a-tier Roglic fanboys though.

 

[Valv.Piti]

If you are talking about the 2025 season specifically, he is nowhere near 10th best rider. Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Del Toro, Van der Poel, Almeida, Onley, Pidcock, Pedersen, McNulty, Merlier, Milan, De Lie, Healy, Lipowitz...
As a simple reference, PCS has him at 35th for 2025.

If you want to assess and extrapolate the level he was able to reach, then i'd say he might still be top 10. Maybe.

Of course my analysis isn't solely based on the 2025 season, I think that was obvious. If that was the case, we might as well only look at UCI or PCS rankings this year.. my point was more that you simply couldn't be considered a top-5 rider with such a bad season.

And yes, I do think 9th or 10th might be a stretch as well at this point, but Im willing to give him some goodwill based on former merits. He won the Vuelta last year pretty convincingly after all, but I think riders like Almeida, Del Toro and Pedersen are clearly better than him as of right now. He's probably around Wout.

 

[tobydawq]

Usually nails the second target. How often has Pedersen won Roubaix?

Even if they're both 4th best in their current niche, I'd rather be the 4th best GT rider than the 4th best cobbled rider in the current era.

How often has Roglic faced a non-neo pro Pogacar or Vingegaard at the Vuelta?

 

[tobydawq]

Semantics. My autistic brain goes nuts when people use a word wrong or exaggerates.

First; is the whole peleton better than when Roglič was at his peak? Guys who has retierd has said the peleton is so much faster the last years. Even Patrick Broe said when commenting on a stage in a race this summer (possibly vuelta but probably earlier) that today's stage was like "before covid". And he's an effing DS, apart from constantly counting numbers on LR.

Bernal has always said he still does the same numbers as before his crash. He beat Roglič today but not with a second. Roglic used to be a bit better than Bernal.

So I'd say Roglič has declined a lot less than it seems. It's the others simply have come past him. And that is not the same thing.

Because of this and crashes he has lost motivation, cause there's no use even trying anymore. The others has become too good.

The only relevant parameter to measure yourself as an elite sportsman is your level relative to the opposition.

 

[tobydawq]

Thank god someone said thjs

I think he wrote it on his own volition and without divine intervention.

I'll probably be banned for talking religion now.

 

[tobydawq]

@Oldman

That and as an opportunity, for the peanut gallery, to come in and claim Rogla is old. No pun intended.

There was no pun at all.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He’s done.

Only way he could win the Vuelta is if his competition is the same as Pog’s at 2024 Giro. Probably the weakest field ever assembled.

But I don’t hold out much hope for Remco either, even at Giro. Only way he could beat del Toro is if there is 100kms of flat ITT.

The next generation is not “next” any more. It’s here.

Del Toro, Seixas, Finn. Their full ascendancy depends on Pog, but they will soon be picking off everyone else, at least in terms of GTs.

Let's relax a bit. Same was said of Ayuso in 2022. Del Toro made a huge leap this year, let's see if he can make another step next year. Ayuso didn't. As far as i'm concerned, Del Toro's 2025 Giro level is nowhere near Evenepoel's 2024 TDF level yet. And in 1 day races he is also clearly not about to reel in the 270km classics. Seixas, Finn, please. Finn was great at WCC but yesterday couldn't follow the best in the ECC. Let's wait and see before overloading these guys with expectations, if not for our sake, then for theirs.

 

[RedheadDane]

Yes, he's past his Prime. He's been past several Primes.
His next Prime will come in a little over a year.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I’m surprised I’m getting pushback for this thread. There was discussion about this in the Emilia thread, the Pogacar thread, the Remco thread, and the Roglic thread. Why not bring it together? I didn’t create the thread to drag Roglic through the mud. I personally find it the suggestion that you can’t analyze a rider’s performances or form a bit patronizing.

Back in the day we had no rider threads, we only had individual threads for individual topics. It encouraged holistic discussion and discouraged cliques. There was relatively little fanboyism. One day people started making rider threads and it's all been downhill since then

Weirdest thing is, you were around to see that too

Thread creator is one of the forum's a-tier Roglic fanboys though.

You’re right I’m a Roglic supporter and cheer for him, but I’m also a fan of many riders and don’t consider myself a “fanboy” of anyone. Watching cycling is more fun if you’re emotionally invested in someone winning the race, of course, and that’s often Roglic for me, but blind adoration and tribalism doesn’t really appeal to me. I would like Roglic to win, but that doesn’t mean I’m blind to his deficits as a rider. If anyone were so inclined, which I hope they are not, a quick search would find that I have written messages applauding Roglic, for sure, but also Remco, Pogacar, Vingegaard, Del Toro, Carapaz, Mas, even the much maligned Ayuso.

In regard to the question I posed, I think he hit a new peak in 2023-2024 after the 2022 setbacks, and was clearly the #3 stage racer those years. I think he would have beaten Pogi in 2021 and Jonas in the 2023 Vuelta. I think the crashes and illness killed his season (though it isn’t over and he might surprise yet), but I fully expect him to be the 3rd best GC guy in 2026, when he will hopefully go for the Giro-Vuelta double and at least get two podiums if he stays on his bike and healthy. His punch seems to be gone, though. I can’t see much of an argument otherwise. Stage 4 of Catalunya? The season certainly seemed brighter before he was taken out of the gravel stage of the Giro through no fault of his own…Certainly Lipowitz, Onley, et al will never touch his palmares, nor will they be able to touch him next year if he is healthy. Del Toro might be a different story, Remco if he gets his prep right. Those 3 plus Almeida should comprise tier 2 below Pogacar and Vingegaard.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I’m surprised I’m getting pushback for this thread. There was discussion about this in the Emilia thread, the Pogacar thread, the Remco thread, and the Roglic thread. Why not bring it together? I didn’t create the thread to drag Roglic through the mud. I personally find it the suggestion that you can’t analyze a rider’s performances or form a bit patronizing.



You’re right I’m a Roglic supporter and cheer for him, but I’m also a fan of many riders and don’t consider myself a “fanboy” of anyone. Watching cycling is more fun if you’re emotionally invested in someone winning the race, of course, and that’s often Roglic for me, but blind adoration and tribalism doesn’t really appeal to me. I would like Roglic to win, but that doesn’t mean I’m blind to his deficits as a rider. If anyone were so inclined, which I hope they are not, a quick search would find that I have written messages applauding Roglic, for sure, but also Remco, Pogacar, Vingegaard, Del Toro, Carapaz, Mas, even the much maligned Ayuso.

In regard to the question I posed, I think he hit a new peak in 2023-2024 after the 2022 setbacks, and was clearly the #3 stage racer those years. I think he would have beaten Pogi in 2021 and Jonas in the 2023 Vuelta. I think the crashes and illness killed his season (though it isn’t over and he might surprise yet), but I fully expect him to be the 3rd best GC guy in 2026, when he will hopefully go for the Giro-Vuelta double and at least get two podiums if he stays on his bike and healthy. His punch seems to be gone, though. I can’t see much of an argument otherwise. Stage 4 of Catalunya? The season certainly seemed brighter before he was taken out of the gravel stage of the Giro through no fault of his own…Certainly Lipowitz, Onley, et al will never touch his palmares, nor will they be able to touch him next year if he is healthy. Del Toro might be a different story, Remco if he gets his prep right. Those 3 plus Almeida should comprise tier 2 below Pogacar and Vingegaard.

I did not mean to imply you wish ill of Roglic' competitors or can not applaud other riders. Simply that you are one of the more outspoken Roglic fans and clearly put him first (as a fan).

I hope for his fans that what you think turns out to be true, but please consider his age and know that if not already started, the start of his decline is imminent.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I did not mean to imply you wish ill of Roglic' competitors or can not applaud other riders. Simply that you are one of the more outspoken Roglic fans and clearly put him first (as a fan).

I hope for his fans that what you think turns out to be true, but please consider his age and know that if not already started, the start of his decline is imminent.

I think most of us get that it’s going to happen at some point and, if nothing else, a season like this might precipitate that. Remco has the golden glow of youth to bounce him back each time he falls.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think most of us get that it’s going to happen at some point and, if nothing else, a season like this might precipitate that. Remco has the golden glow of youth to bounce him back each time he falls.

Myeah... would rather have he wouldn't need to do any bouncing at all.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

As we know, Rogla was a ski-jumper and when he started cycling career he was a grandpa already. He's slowly but surely entering his prime.