I’m surprised I’m getting pushback for this thread. There was discussion about this in the Emilia thread, the Pogacar thread, the Remco thread, and the Roglic thread. Why not bring it together? I didn’t create the thread to drag Roglic through the mud. I personally find it the suggestion that you can’t analyze a rider’s performances or form a bit patronizing.
You’re right I’m a Roglic supporter and cheer for him, but I’m also a fan of many riders and don’t consider myself a “fanboy” of anyone. Watching cycling is more fun if you’re emotionally invested in someone winning the race, of course, and that’s often Roglic for me, but blind adoration and tribalism doesn’t really appeal to me. I would like Roglic to win, but that doesn’t mean I’m blind to his deficits as a rider. If anyone were so inclined, which I hope they are not, a quick search would find that I have written messages applauding Roglic, for sure, but also Remco, Pogacar, Vingegaard, Del Toro, Carapaz, Mas, even the much maligned Ayuso.
In regard to the question I posed, I think he hit a new peak in 2023-2024 after the 2022 setbacks, and was clearly the #3 stage racer those years. I think he would have beaten Pogi in 2021 and Jonas in the 2023 Vuelta. I think the crashes and illness killed his season (though it isn’t over and he might surprise yet), but I fully expect him to be the 3rd best GC guy in 2026, when he will hopefully go for the Giro-Vuelta double and at least get two podiums if he stays on his bike and healthy. His punch seems to be gone, though. I can’t see much of an argument otherwise. Stage 4 of Catalunya? The season certainly seemed brighter before he was taken out of the gravel stage of the Giro through no fault of his own…Certainly Lipowitz, Onley, et al will never touch his palmares, nor will they be able to touch him next year if he is healthy. Del Toro might be a different story, Remco if he gets his prep right. Those 3 plus Almeida should comprise tier 2 below Pogacar and Vingegaard.