Is Walsh on the Sky bandwagon?

[red_flanders]

Then we have Horner, who happily released a blood profile that reeked of transfusions, yet he was comfortable enough to make it public because the passport is (rightly) weighted on the side of avoiding false positives. Science of Sport explains it pretty well:

http://www.sportsscientists.com/201...sport-legal-scientific-and-performance-views/

Just to illustrate a key point, if they set the limits at 99%, then in the cycling collective of 800, you’d expect 8 cases of “false positives” where the rider’s value is flagged when there is no doping. This is why the limits have to be very strictly set in order to have legal “clout” – it’s too easy to dismiss a method that produces this many false positives. The downside, of course, is that cyclists who are doping can still go undetected, but there is this compromise between “cavalier” testing with high risk of false positives and the desire to catch every doper. There are built-in steps to manage this, however.

Cases are usually opened only if several different variables are beyond these boundaries on more than one occasion. By this measure, our non-doping subject who was picked up in the research study I described earlier would not face investigation, which is how it should be.

When this happens, the experts get together to evaluate and analyze the values. If they feel that the profile is typical for a certain doping intervention, the athlete is contacted and questioned about potential reasons for his values. His justifications are again evaluated by the experts. Only if they are still convinced that the profile is typical of doping and is not caused by the explanations put forward by the athlete (as has happened for Pellizotti and co), do they suggest the opening of a procedure against the athlete.

Clearly, the process is quite long and has multiple “security” levels to protect the clean athlete or to filter out pathologies that might cause abnormal values.

The point being that riders can and do (almost certainly) blood dope and get away with it. Does the passport set an upper limit on the doping? Almost certainly. Can riders dope with EPO microdosing and transfusions while being monitored? Clearly they can.

To address the central challenge of Berzin's post, that somehow we need to provide an explanation of how they are doping, I say nonsense. I have never known how any particular rider has doped, and many if not most top riders have doped. Ergo, it means exactly NOTHING if I don't know how they did it.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

To address the central challenge of Berzin's post, that somehow we need to provide an explanation of how they are doping, I say nonsense. I have never known how any particular rider has doped, and many if not most top riders have doped. Ergo, it means exactly NOTHING if I don't know how they did it.

I know you dont read/understand Dutch but I have a very nice source by a former well known doctor in the cycling 'industry' who explains in plain, yes, Dutch how the bio passport is a fluke. Bandwith doping.

To get back on to topic, that is Walsh, how does Walsh explain the working of that bio passport? Contador getting top 5 or top 4 Tour de France? A known blooddoper versus a fresh English/Kenian miracle? Yet he, Barabas, was only 6 minutes back to the Kenyan miracle?

Oh yeah, forgot, Berzin is a one trick phoney.

 

[roundabout]

woah there, Contador not finishing in the top-5 on any of the MTFs is surely a sign of the passport working

 

[Benotti69]

woah there, Contador not finishing in the top-5 on any of the MTFs is surely a sign of the passport working

Or a sign that UCI backed a Skyhorse and not a Saxohorse and since UCI run the track and the betting the Saxohorse could not take as many margianl gains

If BP was working it would've showed Contador was doping in 2007 - 2011.

 

[red_flanders]

woah there, Contador not finishing in the top-5 on any of the MTFs is surely a sign of the passport working

I don't disagree in general that it has a suppressing effect on doping, but in the case of Contador I think it's a sign of him having been popped before and not wanting the career-terminating ban which will follow the next infraction(s).

 

[Benotti69]

I don't disagree in general that it has a suppressing effect on doping, but in the case of Contador I think it's a sign of him having been popped before and not wanting the career-terminating ban which will follow the next infraction(s).

We dont really know what it surpresses as we dont know how UCI actually ran the anti doping.

Speeds are not down.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics/105-avg-race-speed-per-season

So not much surpression.

 

[roundabout]

5 races counted. which ones though?

 

[Benotti69]

5 races counted. which ones though?

What about 2012? 36 races

What about 2011? 28 races

What about 2010? 28 races

speeds equal or above 2005

 

[red_flanders]

We dont really know what it surpresses as we dont know how UCI actually ran the anti doping.

Speeds are not down.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics/105-avg-race-speed-per-season

So not much surpression.

Maybe. I can't say it's making a huge difference either, but that stat means little to me. Average of all races per year over time fluctuating less than 10% with no clear pattern? Don't know what one can extract from that.

Would we expect that stat to move much? I don't know. It's too broad.

The passport seems to set some limit on known doping methods. It seems likely that there are methods happening now which it does not address.

 

[Benotti69]

Maybe. I can't say it's making a huge difference either, but that stat means little to me. Average of all races per year over time fluctuating less than 10% with no clear pattern? Don't know what one can extract from that.

Would we expect that stat to move much? I don't know. It's too broad.

The passport seems to set some limit on known doping methods. It seems likely that there are methods happening now which it does not address.

I guess the passport has meant riders need to be consistent with their doping to avoid going to high or 2 low on the BP.

but then it hasn't prevented the Riis's of Sky, Wigans and Froome, doping to wins.

 

[Morbius]

I guess the passport has meant riders need to be consistent with their doping to avoid going to high or 2 low on the BP.

I remember some discussion, possibly with JV, that consistent EPO doping was pointless as the body simply adjusts and produces less blood cells itself. Do I have that right?

 

[Benotti69]

I remember some discussion, possibly with JV, that consistent EPO doping was pointless as the body simply adjusts and produces less blood cells itself. Do I have that right?

Riders dont need to take EPO daily. They dont race all that often over a season like the 200 or so races in the 80s.

This allows for better organisation of the 'programs'. But the leeway in the BP means it aint hard to beat it.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

I'm still waiting for Berzin to tell me who all these riders with motorized bikes are...

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

I remember some discussion, possibly with JV, that consistent EPO doping was pointless as the body simply adjusts and produces less blood cells itself. Do I have that right?

I think you have to explain what you mean by "consistent EPO doping" and "pointless"...

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

woah there, Contador not finishing in the top-5 on any of the MTFs is surely a sign of the passport working

Please do explain how the passport hasnt triggered this blooddoper yet.

I mean, he blooddoped in 2009 and 2010, yet his offscore is still bandwith superduper halleluja okay?

I'm still waiting for Berzin to tell me who all these riders with motorized bikes are...

Wait a little longer, like 2054 or so.

 

[Morbius]

I think you have to explain what you mean by "consistent EPO doping" and "pointless"...

by "consistent EPO doping" I mean doping at a steady low level so as not to trigger a BP violation
by "pointless" I mean has no positive effect on performance because the body compensates.
In other words if the BP limits are tight enough, even microdosing would have no value to a doper
.
However Benotti suggests that there is enough leeway in the BP for manipulation at careful times. Still that must bring us back to 'low-octane' levels.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

by "consistent EPO doping" I mean doping at a steady low level so as not to trigger a BP violation
by "pointless" I mean has no positive effect on performance because the body compensates.
In other words if the BP limits are tight enough, even microdosing would have no value to a doper
.
However Benotti suggests that there is enough leeway in the BP for manipulation at careful times. Still that must bring us back to 'low-octane' levels.

You're missing why you'd be consistently micro-dosing EPO.

To keep levels up after you pull half a litre of your blood out...

 

[Ferminal]

Anyone can do transfusions independently with their own fridge, equipment and logistics. This is where Fuentes tried to do too much, Ferrari never got that far involved, he just told you what you should do. The big evil doper of all time Armstrong did his more or less on his own with a delivery guy and a bit of help from Johan or his stooges. Landis and Leipheimer did it on their own with Lim running "logistics". Hamilton did them with his missus (sure this is a favourite of many). Ricco obviously ****ed it up but he was well on his way by the time that happened. Bertagnolli was on his own (explains how Ferrari works). Scarponi Mk II on his own. Contador and Marti? Rabo had Humanplasma but when that shut down Rasmussen, Kohl and a few others bought the centrifuge and Matschiner ran all aspects of the operation.

All these show that once you have the knowledge, you don't need an expert, you don't need a doctor, you don't need your team involved. Athletes have been using blood for how many decades?

Not that transfusions can explain everything. Valverde and Rodriguez partying like it's 98 would tend to suggest there is some sort of undetectable blood booster on the market.

To add:

The ABP is less effective in restricting the use of EPO than urine testing. The ABP can certainly not restrict blood boosters of this type within a range that does not provide a significant benefit.

IMO the main ability of the ABP is to interfere with the use of transfusions. The low retics post-transfusion are a risk factor and despite there being a "fix" it doesn't seem to be perfect. Rasmussen 2005 or 2006 whenever Zorzoli told him off. Horner (and Basso 2009) rocking the low retics in the third week, how far from the threshold he was we don't know, but it looks a bit risky and may stop you doing it more than once or twice in a GT.

Perhaps the greatest opportunity and where we don't have information is the high retics post-withdrawal as talked about by Ashenden. I reckon this is where a couple of the sanctions have come from, but I'd have expected more if it was an easy catch. It may just be that blood tests less than once a month provide windows, or it may be that if they declare they were at altitude at the time then it is ignored.

I believe it has definitely been effective at the top end in taking a bit of heat out, and has probably done very well to discourage some lesser guys who aren't all that committed. But then you look at years like 2009/2013 and wonder what else is going on. For all that we do know about EPO and blood parameters there is probably a vast amount of other stuff going on which is harder to grasp.

 

[SundayRider]

Anyone can do transfusions independently with their own fridge, equipment and logistics. This is where Fuentes tried to do too much, Ferrari never got that far involved, he just told you what you should do. The big evil doper of all time Armstrong did his more or less on his own with a delivery guy and a bit of help from Johan or his stooges. Landis and Leipheimer did it on their own with Lim running "logistics". Hamilton did them with his missus (sure this is a favourite of many). Ricco obviously ****ed it up but he was well on his way by the time that happened. Bertagnolli was on his own (explains how Ferrari works). Scarponi Mk II on his own. Contador and Marti? Rabo had Humanplasma but when that shut down Rasmussen, Kohl and a few others bought the centrifuge and Matschiner ran all aspects of the operation.

All these show that once you have the knowledge, you don't need an expert, you don't need a doctor, you don't need your team involved. Athletes have been using blood for how many decades?

Not that transfusions can explain everything. Valverde and Rodriguez partying like it's 98 would tend to suggest there is some sort of undetectable blood booster on the market.

To add:

The ABP is less effective in restricting the use of EPO than urine testing. The ABP can certainly not restrict blood boosters of this type within a range that does not provide a significant benefit.

IMO the main ability of the ABP is to interfere with the use of transfusions. The low retics post-transfusion are a risk factor and despite there being a "fix" it doesn't seem to be perfect. Rasmussen 2005 or 2006 whenever Zorzoli told him off. Horner (and Basso 2009) rocking the low retics in the third week, how far from the threshold he was we don't know, but it looks a bit risky and may stop you doing it more than once or twice in a GT.

Perhaps the greatest opportunity and where we don't have information is the high retics post-withdrawal as talked about by Ashenden. I reckon this is where a couple of the sanctions have come from, but I'd have expected more if it was an easy catch. It may just be that blood tests less than once a month provide windows, or it may be that if they declare they were at altitude at the time then it is ignored.

I believe it has definitely been effective at the top end in taking a bit of heat out, and has probably done very well to discourage some lesser guys who aren't all that committed. But then you look at years like 2009/2013 and wonder what else is going on. For all that we do know about EPO and blood parameters there is probably a vast amount of other stuff going on which is harder to grasp.

Armstrong had Del Moral and that other Spanish Doctor, certainly didn't do transfusions on his own.

 

[Ferminal]

Yeh... on the other end, to hang it on the wall.

Withdrawal = you and a fridge
Logistics = a third party delivery guy
Infusion = someone to stick the needle in and hang the bag, may be same person as logistics but could really be anyone inside or outside the team who can find a vein (doesn't have to be a doctor).

 

[The Hitch]

woah there, Contador not finishing in the top-5 on any of the MTFs is surely a sign of the passport working

Valverde finishing 3rd on a mountain stage on the other hand

 

[The Hitch]

. For all that we do know about EPO and blood parameters there is probably a vast amount of other stuff going on which is harder to grasp.

Yes.

And nicely summarized post as a whole

 

[thehog]

Valverde finishing 3rd on a mountain stage on the other hand

Or just when you think passport has reduced doping you have the "Horner paradox".

Then you realise its not actually a paradox but the norm

 

[roundabout]

Valverde finishing 3rd on a mountain stage on the other hand

spent 1.5 years out of commission

should be less data on him

 

[thehog]

spent 1.5 years out of commission

should be less data on him

Riders remain part of the testing pool even during suspension.