Dirt's post really points it out, we are all brilliant given knowing the outcome!!
One thing that has really struck me is the economy of stage racing, but especially grand tours. If you take top 3 and see the energy and short or extended efforts, Del Toro gets 3rd from burning matches, often unnecessarily day after day.
Carapaz was doing serious intervals multiple days including long jump for stage win. But lots of energy expended.
It's funny to me that Mr. Conservative, Mr In-Control Yates wasn't always the favorite after bee stings and self inflicted crashes had favorites out of the race. So rider to rider energy use..Yates advantage.. And overall, consistency, resume, Yates better on paper than Carapaz and 17 grand tours compared to Del Toro.. One!! Obviously superior!! But for unknown reasons to me Yates on multiple fronts taken as long shot.. It hasn't made sense since Ayuso- Roglic doomsday..