Itzulia Basque Country 2021, Spain, April 5 - April 10

[SafeBet]

As if Rabo could pull that one off, when they win something it's usually despite their team tactics and because their riders where the strongest.

Well one can hope.
It's probably our best bet for an epic stage.

That or an extremely free Landa.

 

[Tinnekeisabella]

Ok does everyone agree that we fastforward tomorrow? I am so curious for Saturday’s race!

 

[RedheadDane]

Ok does everyone agree that we fastforward tomorrow? I am so curious for Saturday’s race!

Yeah... but unfortunately Toby is the only time-traveller on this forum, and he doesn't appear to want to share his secrets.

 

[Rackham]

I don’t know enough about McNulty to know how well he can fare on the final, tougher, stage against Roglic. But for folks who are dismissing his chances altogether, aren’t you ignoring what a high level he must be at (compared to GC guys with bigger targets this summer) given his huge performance in the TT here?

Roglic can destroy McNulty. That's the easy part.

Pogacar is a different matter & that's where the fun is. In any case, this is what makes the charm of these short one week stages.

 

[Gigs_98]

I kinda agree that UAE put itself in tactically tricky position too, since they now basically have to go all in for McNulty. As some have said, Pogacar can't really wait for the final 3 km of Arrate if he wants to gain enough time on Roglic, but Roglic might be able to do just that and still gain enough time. So UAE probably has to back their weaker horse.

But the crucial thing is, I don't think Pogacar had much of a chance to gain enough time on Arrate to begin with. It's infamously hard to get any gap on that climb and Roglic so far hasn't really looked like this is the year a gc leader is gonna crack there. Roglic's position before today was actually quite comfortable and it definitely isn't now.

 

[BlueRoads]

I have to admit I'm stunned by McNulty's (climbing) level in this race.
But since he has shown so far that he is very strong I think it's not a great idea to bet on him being weak on a future stage.

 

[Sciatic]

The problem is that Mcnulty will likely not be able to keep up with Roglic on Saturday...I am sure if there was a possibility for him to do so, Pogacar would pull for him. Right now, Roglic will need to make a move and then Pogacar can follow and counterattack? He will not stay back pulling the group like vinegaard did today

I understand that completel, and agree with your description of scenarios. But it doesn’t get at what be what Rackam seemed to be implying, since he mentioned Pog needing to put his ego aside and be “okay” with a teammate winning. That’s what my comment referred to.

 

[Lequack]

What a weird stage today. I can't tell who really won tactically and who didn't. I was surprised by the lack of cooperation in the peloton, obviously Roglic and Pogacar weren't going to do anything, but everyone else had a common goal of not losing time.

 

[Escarabajo]

To Sciatic . It is not that we are ignoring McNulty's chances in this race but he is the weaker of the three on Saturday. If it comes down to a battle between the three (and others) on the last climb, I am certain that he will be dropped by the other two.

Let's put it this way. If Pogacar wasn't on the team, he would be annihilated on Saturday by the pressure from other teams IMHO. He is good, he is not that good.

 

[Bolder]

I still don't quite know what happened today.

I just watched the last 50 k on delay, and I'm kind of surprised that UAE were OK with McNulty in the lead group, unless Pogacar wasn't feeling well and needed a bit of a rest. Will be interesting to see how UAE play the rest of the race.

At the same time, Vingegaard could have worked to bring Roglic up to the lead group but clearly he wasn't asked to do so.

I think the rest of the teams were just watching TJV and UAE, to be honest.

 

[bajbar]

Jumbo wants a situation where all three contenders (Rog, Pog, McNulty) reach the bottom of the last climb on Saturday together in the first group. In that scenario Roglič probably wins overall. If they had yellow, the team would collapse after 30km of constant attacking and Roglič would either crack covering everything by himself or a group (like today) would sneak away and steal the overall. It would be better if the gap was more around 10-15 seconds, but it is what it is.

 

[Sciatic]

To Sciatic . It is not that we are ignoring McNulty's chances in this race but he is the weaker of the three on Saturday. If it comes down to a battle between the three (and others) on the last climb, I am certain that he will be dropped by the other two.

Let's put it this way. If Pogacar wasn't on the team, he would be annihilated on Saturday by the pressure from other teams IMHO. He is good, he is not that good.

I totally agree he will get dropped, but that doesn’t mean he will be out of it completely and not add interest to the stage on Sat. I’m not trying to hype his chances, and personally am rooting for Izaguire to sneak away and steal the win!

 

[Bolder]

Just looking at the profile of the final climb, a rider who cracks early is going to lose minutes unless you're peak yo-yo Froome. It looks like a perfect day for an in-form Sepp Kuss...oh, wait...anyway, as much as I like McNulty I don't think he'll figure in the final. Now, to me, the issue is whether Pogacar can take the time he needs off Roglic if they start off in the lead group an are both relatively in even form, as they appear to be.

Still, the stage is so short and likely to be chaotic that I'd be loath to predict anything other than I don't think McNulty will win, although I'll be pulling for him.

 

[Pinot's goat]

I have to admit I'm stunned by McNulty's (climbing) level in this race.
But since he has shown so far that he is very strong I think it's not a great idea to bet on him being weak on a future stage.

He has often been good on medium mountain stages, it is the long efforts. where he is really average and must improve if he wants to contest GC at grand tours.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

There are definitely some interesting scenarios between TJV and UAE for Saturday. But I'm almost certain that Poga won't stay with McNulty if the latter can't match Roglic's attack. The time differences between them are too small: Poga will stick to Roglic's wheel and attack if Primoz neutralizes the gap to McNulty.

Such short but difficult stages like saturday can bring fireworks and dynamic action. Obviously we would like more drama, i.e. attacks on bloody hard Krabelin, which is 43 km from the line, not that far...

 

[cellardoor]

Jumbo wants a situation where all three contenders (Rog, Pog, McNulty) reach the bottom of the last climb on Saturday together in the first group. In that scenario Roglič probably wins overall. If they had yellow, the team would collapse after 30km of constant attacking and Roglič would either crack covering everything by himself or a group (like today) would sneak away and steal the overall. It would be better if the gap was more around 10-15 seconds, but it is what it is.

Sure, Roglic can probably drop McNulty if he goes all in. But he doesn't have a team to drill it, so he either has to rely on other teams setting a hard pace, or he has to go solo from further out than he's normally comfortable with. Then it seems to me that one of two things happen - either he has to just drive it to the line with Pogacar sitting on the whole way, in which case he's in grave danger of dropping the 10secs or so in a late counter-attack; or there will be stop-start shadow boxing and McNulty will keep coming back.

 

[red_flanders]

That last stage is a full on beast, I personally don't see McNulty figuring into things by the end of it. I could see him losing time well before the final climb. I guess I'm not yet convinced he's going to be able to hang with the big boys in such a situation. I don't think it's a problem that UAE let him get into that group and the lead, why not try and draw out Roglič and tire him while Pog follows the wheel and potentially grabs more bonus time at the finish. And it's not a problem that McNulty is in the lead, they protect both for the remaining two stages and have 2 cards to play to try and blow up Roglič on the final stage.

If I'm Roglič I'm not going to follow McNulty alone, he'll try and use his team to contain him, or let him fry if he goes too early (unlikely). But it does complicate things tactically which is good for UAE.

 

[bajbar]

Sure, Roglic can probably drop McNulty if he goes all in. But he doesn't have a team to drill it, so he either has to rely on other teams setting a hard pace, or he has to go solo from further out than he's normally comfortable with. Then it seems to me that one of two things happen - either he has to just drive it to the line with Pogacar sitting on the whole way, in which case he's in grave danger of dropping the 10secs or so in a late counter-attack; or there will be stop-start shadow boxing and McNulty will keep coming back.

Yes. It is not completely straightforward. But the alternative (if the GC was like it was at the begining of the day) is even worse. The whole Jumbo team dropped with 40km to go while answering attacks of eveyone in top 15 who still think they can win. Roglič gets isolated. McNulty attacks on the downhill or flat - Roglič has to counter. Then Pogačar, then McNulty or someone else again. No matter how strong he is someone would ride away. Now we know UAE won't attack until Roglič himself does. And it will be UAE riders who will get burned by constantly answering to attacks, not JV riders.

 

[Red Rick]

I kinda agree that UAE put itself in tactically tricky position too, since they now basically have to go all in for McNulty. As some have said, Pogacar can't really wait for the final 3 km of Arrate if he wants to gain enough time on Roglic, but Roglic might be able to do just that and still gain enough time. So UAE probably has to back their weaker horse.

But the crucial thing is, I don't think Pogacar had much of a chance to gain enough time on Arrate to begin with. It's infamously hard to get any gap on that climb and Roglic so far hasn't really looked like this is the year a gc leader is gonna crack there. Roglic's position before today was actually quite comfortable and it definitely isn't now.

It's not the traditional side of Arrate right?

 

[topt]

what TJV is thinking that Mcnulty will get droped on stage 6 without Rogla attacking; i think it will happen; also will pogacar attack now his teammate ? it may not be such a stupid decision; they kind of prevented Pogacar attacking; all rogla has to do is follow pogacar nothing more

 

[search]

It's not the traditional side of Arrate right?

the finish is the same as usual*, they use the other side earlier on in the stage

*edit: so not the steep one from 2017 and 2018, but the one Samu Sanchez always used to win

 

[Red Rick]

the finish is the same as usual, they use the other side earlier on in the stage

Okay.

RIP Contadors record then.

 

[Gregor_Slovenia]

So, long range attack on Saturday from Pogi.

 

[Blanco]

I actually think the tactics wasn't that bad.

It was a disaster! This was worse than anything Movistar ever did

Mistake no.1, Roglic - Not following his teammate who chased McNulty
Mistake no.2, DS and Roglic - Not putting Tolhoek right away on the front to work.
Mistake no.3, DS - Not telling Vingegaard to drop back.
And on top of everything Vignegaard lost that sprint, and even bonus seconds to McNulty.

 

[Red Rick]

It was a disaster! This was worse than anything Movistar ever did

Mistake no.1, Roglic - Not following his teammate who chased McNulty
Mistake no.2, DS and Roglic - Not putting Tolhoek right away on the front to work.
Mistake no.3, DS - Not telling Vingegaard to drop back.
And on top of everything Vignegaard lost that sprint, and even bonus seconds to McNulty.

The 5D 300 IQ chess will be revealed come Saturday.