Roglič has this in the bag.
I agree.
If Roglic doesn't win this he might as well retire.
Dude...
Nah, Itzulia is a great route for Primoz by definition actually. Primoz in top form would probably be able to win this even against Skeletor (by bonus seconds perhaps). I think stage 6 will be absolute carnage. Gaps till this stage will be small and JV will want to absolutely destroy stage 6. Vingo going thermonuclear on Krabelin is on the cards and I don't think anybody will be able to follow.
I think Rog will follow. Maybe I'm an optimist but I think his weaknesses on this sort of route is mostly positioning & weather related. If he has the legs, I don't see Krabelin as a problem. It's not like there's a 17km HC climb followed by another & another over a 200km+ stage.
On such a profile, I'd have to say Vingegaard would massacre everyone. But here? Even on stage 6, I don't see it.
Of course it's all a moot point if Rog shows up with his Paris-Nice stage 8 form, i.e. at which point it's vamos a la playa, grab a couple of cervezas & wait for the social media sh*tstorm to blow over.