Itzulia Basque Country 2024, April 1-6

[Libertine Seguros]

Because this isn't a terrible route at all.


Tirreno was bad so I criticised it. This is just criticism out of habit.

For an Itzulia, I believe this to be a lazy and terrible route, very much not criticism out of habit as far as I'm concerned. This is a race which usually I don't have too much trouble with the route of and which has introduced a lot of new ideas over the last decade, but this particular edition I see as very poor, with a lot of generic low gradient climbing which is out of character for the race and circuits cribbed from other races that aren't being run anymore meaning the riders know pretty much all of this course like the back of their hands.

For some other races with different styles or more limited obstacles at their disposal, this would be a good route, but for an Itzulia, I disagree wholeheartedly.

 

[Berniece]

For an Itzulia, I believe this to be a lazy and terrible route, very much not criticism out of habit as far as I'm concerned. This is a race which usually I don't have too much trouble with the route of and which has introduced a lot of new ideas over the last decade, but this particular edition I see as very poor, with a lot of generic low gradient climbing and circuits cribbed from other races that aren't being run anymore meaning the riders know pretty much all of this course like the back of their hands.

For some other races with different styles or more limited obstacles at their disposal, this would be a good route, but for an Itzulia, I disagree wholeheartedly.

I think the only thing this race is missing is a longer climb to finish on after enough altitude during the stage. That would get you a better balance. But does ever stage race need to be the same?

 

[Ulle97]

Whatever about people's opinions on the route, I'm certain that the racing will be very exciting and we're in for a close GC contest.

 

[Salvarani]

Whatever about people's opinions on the route, I'm certain that the racing will be very exciting and we're in for a close GC contest.

Thats the spirit!

 

[bNator]

This is a route of muritos, very different from Tirreno. Not hard enough for him.

It can appear that way but Krabelin is no joke - it just goes on and on and on. Roglic would normally not be able to rely on his anaerobic capacity and Vingegaard's endurance is what counts more on a climb like that. The problem is that Krabelin is a looong way from home....

 

[Rackham]

It can appear that way but Krabelin is no joke - it just goes on and on and on. Roglic would normally not be able to rely on his anaerobic capacity and Vingegaard's endurance is what counts more on a climb like that. The problem is that Krabelin is a looong way from home....

Roglič has attacked on Krabelin before. He did it in 2021 when he accelerated to stop Pog from re-joining the front group & he did it again in 2022 when he was riding in support for Vingo.

For me the key will be how much energy he's expended before Krabelin. Like if there's a split early on stage 6 & he has to work on the chase, then yes it'll be an issue. But I think both Rog & Evenepoel will surprise some people next week.

Just a hunch.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think the only thing this race is missing is a longer climb to finish on after enough altitude during the stage. That would get you a better balance. But does ever stage race need to be the same?

Long climbs aren't really part of the Itzulia route. This is a race of short and medium length climbs, and most importantly of steep and inconsistent climbs, the latter of which are sorely lacking. My problem here is that this doesn't have the character of an Itzulia, as it has its own characteristics. Some short steep walls in a run-in very much are, and are something that is missing here. Think of the memorable climbs of País Vasco, and after the regulars like Arrate and Jaizkibel you have things like Aia and Antigua. Especially some of those concreted or narrow 20%+ muritos, those are something that the Itzulia has always been about, but are totally absent here in favour of 6-7% wide-paved major roads. With one exception, which is on the last stage. It feels like they're very much hoping for an epic last stage, but in order to engineer it they've made the first four road stages as un-selective as they can.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Roglič has attacked on Krabelin before. He did it in 2021 when he accelerated to stop Pog from re-joining the front group & he did it again in 2022 when he was riding in support for Vingo.

For me the key will be how much energy he's expended before Krabelin. Like if there's a split early on stage 6 & he has to work on the chase, then yes it'll be an issue. But I think both Rog & Evenepoel will surprise some people next week.

Just a hunch.

2021-22 version:

2023-24 version:

In 2021-2 Krabelin was 40km or so from the line as opposed to nearly 70km, I think that's likely a factor. It should hopefully still generate action simply because it's hard to see where else decent time gaps are going to come so if everybody is tightly bunched together hopefully we get something more like Oñati 2012 where people are prepared to risk losing in order to win, and not something like 2011 where everybody just rode together and waited because the TT was too long for balance that year.

 

[AmRacer]

I was talking about Ayuso, Yates, maybe del Toro.

That would be a shocker

 

[Rob5091]

Mods- I swear I didn't hack this guy and that I didn't coerce him into posting this. Rob5091 posted this on his own volition

Was n't it Nostradamus who said, "I've seen the future! but don't get your hopes up".

I think the weather might well play the decisive role in the race if it rains.

 

[Berniece]

That's never been a part of Itzulia. Arrate has traditionally be the main MTF every year and it's like 12 minutes at 9%.

. Especially some of those concreted or narrow 20%+ muritos, those are something that the Itzulia has always been about, but are totally absent here in favour of 6-7% wide-paved major roads. With one exception, which is on the last stage.

Thanks for clarifying, I understand what you mean. They lost what made Itzulia, Itzulia. We could still get a nice race though. With the TT as the first stage we’ll get to see Vingegaard and Roglic on the attack.

 

[Berflamand]

Thanks for clarifying, I understand what you mean. They lost what made Itzulia, Itzulia. We could still get a nice race though. With the TT as the first stage we’ll get to see Vingegaard and Roglic on the attack.

I think the TT could be won by any one of Evenepoel, Vingegaard, Roglic or Ayuso.

Especially if it's technical which puts Evenepoel at a disadvantage compared to the other three.

But it doesn't look that technical to me or am I misjudging the map?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Was n't it Nostradamus who said, "I've seen the future! but don't get your hopes up".

I think the weather might well play the decisive role in the race if it rains.

It's País Vasco. "If" it rains doesn't come into it. It's just about whether, when the rain comes, it's optimally placed for the race.

 

[Elos Anjos]

I'm not mou.

 

[Berniece]

I think the TT could be won by any one of Evenepoel, Vingegaard, Roglic or Ayuso.

Especially if it's technical which puts Evenepoel at a disadvantage compared to the other three.

But it doesn't look that technical to me or am I misjudging the map?

Evenepoel is pretty great on a TT bike, even when it's technical. I don't understand where this narrative comes from.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

That would be a shocker

I don't know why it would be a shock to you if Ayuso finished second

 

[AmRacer]

Evenepoel is pretty great on a TT bike, even when it's technical. I don't understand where this narrative comes from.

I think the others are closer to Remco on a technical course. On a flat easy course, Remco's power is to his advantage.

 

[AmRacer]

I don't know why it would be a shock to you if Ayuso finished second

I just don't see him yet on the same level as R&R.

 

[Slavique Nuke]

I just don't see him yet on the same level as R&R.

Last year Ayuso comfortably beat Remco in both the TdS and Vuelta.

 

[Potomac]

Scanning the race's palmres, they must be getting something right with the course.

Those podiums aren't filled with donkeys.

Palmares Itzulia Basque Country

Overview of winners per edition. The last winners of Itzulia Basque Country are João Almeida (2025), Juan Ayuso (2024) and Jonas Vingegaard (2023).

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Breh]

Scanning the race's palmres, they must be getting something right with the course.

Those podiums aren't filled with donkeys.

Palmares Itzulia Basque Country

Overview of winners per edition. The last winners of Itzulia Basque Country are João Almeida (2025), Juan Ayuso (2024) and Jonas Vingegaard (2023).

www.procyclingstats.com

I'm so happy Izagirre actually won this.

 

[bNator]

You have Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel and the route is, to paraphrase one of the chess players of all time: "So bad, soooo bad. So bad chat. That's so bad."

Hikaru?

 

[bNator]

Roglič has attacked on Krabelin before. He did it in 2021 when he accelerated to stop Pog from re-joining the front group & he did it again in 2022 when he was riding in support for Vingo.

For me the key will be how much energy he's expended before Krabelin. Like if there's a split early on stage 6 & he has to work on the chase, then yes it'll be an issue. But I think both Rog & Evenepoel will surprise some people next week.

Just a hunch.

I am convinced Roglic 2021 was his best edition ever. Proven in Itzulia's crazy opening ITT and then the final stage that you mention, Olympic games as well as his best ever Vuelta performance. If only he didn't crash out, what a Tour that would have been...

Anyway, what I'm trying to say is Rogla was exceptional that year and Krabelin should suit Vingegaard better this year.

 

[Netserk]

Not sure why folks are talking about Remco and Rog, at least one guy from the UAE will be ahead of them in the GC.

I don’t see Yates making the podium. I’m more unsure about what to expect of Ayuso. He could well have an eye on the Ardennes.

EDIT: Only now see that Yates won't go. It doesn't really change anything, as I didn't expect him to be strong here. In this stacked field, I don't give the secondary riders on the team any chance of making the podium.

 

[Berniece]

Last year Ayuso comfortably beat Remco in both the TdS and Vuelta.

TdS was the first race after covid for Evenepoel.

When did he beat Evenepoel in a TT in the Vuelta? Evenepoel almost put 1min on him in 2023, and +2min in 2022.