Two sprint stages in Itzulia is pretty disappointing. Still, the return of the TT is a good news and I think stage 4 is a really good stage too.
Regardless of the lack of mountain, I still think the last stage is hard enough for Vingegaard to take GC, though it wouldn’t shock me if Remco can hang on to his wheel and take the overall (Roglič would need to improve a lot after Paris-Nice but also has a shot).
For today, I don't think that the gaps will be big as it is a short hilly technical TT. I will go with Ayuso to do a little surprise and take the stsge win.