Itzulia Basque Country 2026, April 6-11

[AmRacer]

Some notes on today's TT:

- The wind only changed slightly during the TT from SE to SSE (perhaps slightly worse for this course) and may have even gotten a bit weaker. The difference should be 5 seconds at most in favor of the earlier starters.

- It was 28° in the beginning and went up to 30° for the last starters. In my experience, the first very warm/ hot day of the year often causes extreme underperformances for many riders, which we have seen here again.

- Ayuso not recovered from Paris Nice. Del Toro seems to be over his form peak (almost no one can do 3 one weeks in a row in peak shape)

- Roglic was disappointing for me, he may really be declining a bit

- In general, the level of the secondary GC riders here (and all year long) has not been impressive at all and we definitely have not seen another step up in general level this year (rather opposite for many riders)

- I expected Seixas to win, but the gaps are extreme. Only Combloux Vingegaard or TDF-level Pogacar would have beaten him today. His technical abilities seem extremely strong, which is good in general but relativizes his pure level here slightly.

- The GC seems over already. There will be quite a hard and long climb (atypical for the Basque Country) tomorrow where Seixas will probably launch. If he repeats a performance like in Faun Ardeche...

Remco would've won today

 

[YavorD]

What is your point exactly? You are saying Del Toro will not be able to win a GT in the future?

Don't know abot DE, but I'm saying so.
Maybe an odd average Vuelta with mostly garage walls and a favourable field, but that's it.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I don't think many believed he could win the TdF.
A small GT is very in reach, specially the Vuelta. With current Seixas, everyone (not named Pogacar) can say goodbye to a TdF win.

You can go check the GT power ranking thread. Quite a few posters rating him IMO way too highly there, including one you might be familiar with.

Del Toro is in the top5 for me after what he did in the Giro.

 

[canina82]

You can go check the GT power ranking thread. Quite a few posters rating him IMO way too highly there, including one you might be familiar with.

I don't understand your point.

 

[canina82]

Don't know abot DE, but I'm saying so.
Maybe an odd average Vuelta with mostly garage walls and a favourable field, but that's it.

Vuelta is like that most of the time.

 

[saunaking]

All hail our new master and destroyer!!!

He’ll make Pog look like he’s climbing mountains with a cobblestone in his pocket in July

 

[YavorD]

Vuelta is like that most of the time.

He can still be murdered in the toughest stages in most editions though. And it's unlikely to make up grounds in the ITT.
Perhaps his biggest hope should be a white roads stage.

 

[tobydawq]

You can go check the GT power ranking thread. Quite a few posters rating him IMO way too highly there, including one you might be familiar with.

I don't get the same vibe from those two posters at all.

 

[Unchained]

Potentially, but Del Toro and Ayuso doing so badly means that Lipowitz will have a bit more freedom as UAE/Lidl won't be as keen to control the race. Though you're right that it depends on internal politics

I would play it exactly the opposite, UAE can send McNulty, Del Toro or Grosschartner and other teams need to make immediate decisions, show no respect, guys will blow up or chase them. UAE, Trek don't need to control anything, early jersey and a lesser team put the pressure on Paul
Del Toro's resume while only a few years old, reveal a few things, don't freak out after a sub par TT and the only thing Del Toro specializes in is not having a specialty, he just does whatever it takes to get it done.. Del Toro is enjoying current popularity as much for winning a bit, but also popular for losing, the way he does it and to who he loses to.. Getting nipped at the line by riders like Wout Van Aert and other notables is important. Del Toro is not a pure anything, TT specialist, not a pure climber or sprinter but he is good at everything, we haven't seen were he falls in a field of gravel talent, but his Giro and end of season success have gravel bike and goals gathering dust for now.
A bad TT might be the end of the world for fragile, Isaac ain't fragile.
Recent rumors were that Decathlon were adding riders to help Seixas, one was coming from UAE..
Narvarez is said to be going back to Ineos,

 

[Red Rick]

For reference to 2021: Seixas was 2 seconds faster than Van Wilder in 2021, and Van Wilder was a full minute slower

Wind conditions were very, very different.

 

[Alexandre B.]

but also popular for losing, the way he does it and to who he loses to..

The way he lost the last Giro is anything but popular, in my opinion.

 

[Peyresourde]

For reference to 2021: Seixas was 2 seconds faster than Van Wilder in 2021, and Van Wilder was a full minute slower

Wind conditions were very, very different.

You might be a minute off. Seixas was 8 seconds faster than Roglic in 2021. The wind in 21 seems to have been from NW and weaker, so clearly different.
But wind can't cause a 1 minute difference on this course (start and end location close together)

 

[Red Rick]

You might be a minute off. Seixas was 8 seconds faster than Roglic in 2021. The wind in 21 seems to have been from NW and weaker, so clearly different.
But wind can't cause a 1 minute difference on this course (start and end location close together)

No, I'm just taking the final 3 minutes as only an indicator of wind.

Clearly Seixas is much better than Van Wilder of 2021 it's not even funny.

It's mainly to show how different and therefor incomparable the 2021 and 2026 times are despite having an identical parcours.

 

[Unchained]

The way he lost the last Giro is anything but popular, in my opinion.

Pay attention, his name is known because of it, the loss I guess could be popular? Never thought about it.. Lol. The circumstances surrounding Del Toro getting a leadership role in the Giro, shot him like a rocket, his fan base went from his mom and a few thousand home town hold one to millions of people knowing his name, following his career, got him a bonus, contract extension and a salary increase, all from losing. All a matter of perspective. Del Toro got opportunities from UAE he couldn't dream of before his failure. Del Toro lost the Giro and still made points finalists getting in top 5 last year, was one of top 5 most popular bike racers after losing.

Isaac del Toro

Isaac del Toro (born 2003-11-27 in Ensenada ) is a professional road racing cyclist from Mexico, currently riding for UAE Team Emirates - XRG. His best results are winning GC Tirreno-Adriatico and winning GC UAE Tour.

www.procyclingstats.com

25,000 less people searching for his name.. Sad

 

[Peyresourde]

No, I'm just taking the final 3 minutes as only an indicator of wind.

Clearly Seixas is much better than Van Wilder of 2021 it's not even funny.

It's mainly to show how different and therefor incomparable the 2021 and 2026 times are despite having an identical parcours.

Ok, then I misunderstood you.
The wind in the last part was headwind this year and tailwind in 2021.

 

[Didinho]

Haven’t seen this before. No aero shoes, just covering up his laces.

 

[Sciatic]

Tomorrow they have the longest (9.5km) of the steeper (8%) climbs this entire race. Tops out at roughly 15 km to go with a punchy climb at the finish. I think that will tell us right away whether some of the surprising poor performances today were just bad TT’s (due to lack of TT work or whatever) or whether some of those riders aren’t in good form. Del Toro comes to mind.

 

[Red Rick]

Climb is pretty good for a very early launch.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Reminds me of an aldi sestriere style finish, If Seixas has 10 seconds over the top then it’s a minute at the finish, I think Landa can follow.

 

[Red Rick]

Cross tailwind on the climb, turns to cross after 1/3rd of the descent and block headwind on final climb I think.

 

[Rou]

Vuelta is like that most of the time.

Can you please tell me on which Vuelta route from the last 10 years del Toro has a chance?
Because in every edition I see queen stages where he would be destroyed.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

This climb did very little at all for GC as a descent finish (with like 1k of flat after the descent) at the 2020 Vuelta, but of course Itzulia is not the Vuelta and a race with Roglic as the big favourite is a very different environment to the one we are in here. The descent itself is shallow and untechnical enough that it normally plays into the hands of a chasing group, but given that Seixas is the technically superior rider that might not matter either.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Del Toro not able to win a GT because the big mountains is the new Remco not able to win a GT (again) because of big mountains.

 

[canina82]

Can you please tell me on which Vuelta route from the last 10 years del Toro has a chance?
Because in every edition I see queen stages where he would be destroyed.

Almost anyone. Of course this depends on the competition. If Pogacar or Vingegaard are there (and now Seixas too), he doesn't have a chance. Without these 3, he can win any edition. Let's wait for the TdF to judge his true level in the high mountains.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Can you please tell me on which Vuelta route from the last 10 years del Toro has a chance?
Because in every edition I see queen stages where he would be destroyed.

2025, 2022 and (with the route alteration) 2020 didn't have anything remotely resembling a queen stage. Of course, at his current level he does need to not run into any version of Vingegaard, an Evenepoel who puts everything together or prime Roglic to have a shot even on those routes.