Jay Vine discussion thread

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I generally agree with some of the guys here. From what we've seen from Jay Vine so far has has one of the best engines i.e. his 30 minute or so efforts (relative to mass) are among the best in the world but his consistency in longer race has to be questioned (recovery must be the factor here). Maybe more work on his aerobic efforts can help him endure longer races better and accumulate less fatigue (OTOH his anaerobic threshold is obviously top-notch).
Well he came up through power output/data analysis right, more than a well established road junior/under 23 career. So, with time and experience, his endurance and ability to go the distance should improve considerably. Whether or not this translates into GT podium material at this point is anyone's guess. Winning the Aussie nat TT, however, puts another feather in his cap of abilities. If he's not relegated to too much worker duties, he should be one of the most interesting riders to watch develop over the next years.
 
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That's pretty impressive. I'm on the hype train. If he has a really good year, co-leader at Vuelta, at least? Please?

Australia has produced a lot of really good GC riders, all things considered. There's nothing really to suggest that Vine couldn't be a weeklong or even GT contender; at UAE he should have access to better material and training methods, too.
 
Hasn't vine said before how he struggles with/dislikes fighting for position in the peloton? Also has had quite a few crashes. I wonder if he'll end up deciding that going for GC in GT's is too stressful and go the de gendt route instead. (Albeit less of a reouleur and more of a climbing stage hunter).
 
Doing some leisurely comparing to see how this might impact any internal hierarchy at UAE. Vine was only 4 seconds slower than Durbridge in the Vuelta TT which was also over 30km. O'Brien was 30s slower than Vine there as well. So very comparable results, which might indicate they were in fact going all out at the Vuelta TT as well. Yet all of them were in fact still slower than both Ayuso, who was sick and Almeida, who took a wrong turn at the finish, so that should put things into perspective. All of them finishing over 2 minutes down in the TT. Others finishing ahead of Vine and Durbridge include Mas, Hart, O'Connor, Rodriguez, MAL, Yates...

At the Dauphiné though, Durbridge came in 6th in less than a minute from Ganna and a nearly identical distance as the Vuelta TT. Durbridge in fact did beat Ayuso there by 41s. Also beating Vingegaard, Mas, O'Connor, Hart...

At Paris Nice, Durbridge also beat Almeida by 5s, but that was only a 13.4k TT. In previous NC TT's , Durbridge lost to Dennis and Plapp over similar distances by 43s and 1m13s

More interestingly, the Australian NC TT has been held over the exact same distance (hence i suspect on the exact same course) the past 4 editions. Vine's winning time of 46m38s is 1m04s slower than Dennis' time last year. It is also 38s slower than Plapp in 2021 and 20s slower than Durbridge in 2020. Obviously i have no idea about the weather conditions.
 
More interestingly, the Australian NC TT has been held over the exact same distance (hence i suspect on the exact same course) the past 4 editions. Vine's winning time of 46m38s is 1m04s slower than Dennis' time last year. It is also 38s slower than Plapp in 2021 and 20s slower than Durbridge in 2020. Obviously i have no idea about the weather conditions.
It's pretty well known that they always ride on the same course, the road nationals are always the same as well. That's why you can indeed sort of compare the riders with themselves and with others in previous years. You can't compare Jay Vine with himself because he never rode it. But Durbridge rode pretty much the same time this year as last year. Only Rohan Dennis was more than a minute ahead of him last year, now Jay Vine won by just a few seconds.

I would argue that while of course he won, and so it's always good, it wasn't exactly a high level field and the result doesn't tell us much. The only semi-world class time trialist at the start was Plapp, and he had a mechanical.
 
Doing some leisurely comparing to see how this might impact any internal hierarchy at UAE. Vine was only 4 seconds slower than Durbridge in the Vuelta TT which was also over 30km. O'Brien was 30s slower than Vine there as well. So very comparable results, which might indicate they were in fact going all out at the Vuelta TT as well. Yet all of them were in fact still slower than both Ayuso, who was sick and Almeida, who took a wrong turn at the finish, so that should put things into perspective. All of them finishing over 2 minutes down in the TT. Others finishing ahead of Vine and Durbridge include Mas, Hart, O'Connor, Rodriguez, MAL, Yates...

At the Dauphiné though, Durbridge came in 6th in less than a minute from Ganna and a nearly identical distance as the Vuelta TT. Durbridge in fact did beat Ayuso there by 41s. Also beating Vingegaard, Mas, O'Connor, Hart...

At Paris Nice, Durbridge also beat Almeida by 5s, but that was only a 13.4k TT. In previous NC TT's , Durbridge lost to Dennis and Plapp over similar distances by 43s and 1m13s

More interestingly, the Australian NC TT has been held over the exact same distance (hence i suspect on the exact same course) the past 4 editions. Vine's winning time of 46m38s is 1m04s slower than Dennis' time last year. It is also 38s slower than Plapp in 2021 and 20s slower than Durbridge in 2020. Obviously i have no idea about the weather conditions.
You forgot about the most important point - This year the ITT was held two days after the RR while traditionally the ITT is held three days before the RR - This alone would account for 30 or 40 seconds difference - I'll also add that Durbridge only performs in ITT's in Australia in January - I still want to see Plapp perform in European ITT's - Vine has never gone 100% in his european time trials, while O'Brien pulled out with fatigue two or three days after his Vuelta ITT - O'Brien was the street corner tip to do well in the ITT which I could not see but obviously he's decent at the discipline.

What do we take out of the ITT.

  • Durbridge will continue to struggle in European ITT's.
  • Plapp can TT but needs to prove it in Europe.
  • Vine can TT well enough to be a GC contender if he follows that route.
  • O'Brien as a second year pro should improve at the Classics.
 
You forgot about the most important point - This year the ITT was held two days after the RR while traditionally the ITT is held three days before the RR - This alone would account for 30 or 40 seconds difference - I'll also add that Durbridge only performs in ITT's in Australia in January - I still want to see Plapp perform in European ITT's - Vine has never gone 100% in his european time trials, while O'Brien pulled out with fatigue two or three days after his Vuelta ITT - O'Brien was the street corner tip to do well in the ITT which I could not see but obviously he's decent at the discipline.

What do we take out of the ITT.

  • Durbridge will continue to struggle in European ITT's.
  • Plapp can TT but needs to prove it in Europe.
  • Vine can TT well enough to be a GC contender if he follows that route.
  • O'Brien as a second year pro should improve at the Classics.
Vine pulled out of the RR premeditated i heard, so the RR coming earlier should have barely had an impact. Maybe it made more of an impact for the others.
 
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This is impressive progress for a rider who came to attention in the 2020 Zwift academy. He can sustain watts per kilo. In the Vuelta he showed real climbing ability in winning two mountain stages including ahead of GC contenders, now he shows potential in TT. Beating Durbridge in a TT in January suggests it was a noteworthy marker.

So people will naturally start to wonder what Vine's stage racing potential is. Other than delivering in a European TT, will be interesting to see what his recovery is. If not grand tours, then certainly week long races like PN, T/A, Dauphine or Romandie.

Jay Vine: From The Home Trainer & Zwift To Two Stage Wins At La Vuelta - Bicycling Australia
 
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