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João Almeida - Bota Lume

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Brullnux

Mar 31, 2015
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James M said:
Vingegaard even did more or less his numbers from last years Tirreno at PN when Almeida dropped him again its just wasnt enough. Riders improve each year some more than others, shocker I know.
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What? How is 6.59 w/kg for 15 minutes the same as 6.7 w/kg for 26? They're not even in the same ballpark. Let's be real here.

I think Almeida's improvement is visible less in the results he gets and more in the way he does it. 2023 Almeida was pretty consistently on the back foot, and though he does still yo-yo he takes control of races much more frequently. 2023 Almeida was still a GT podium rider, but I think now he'd be genuinely fighting for the win at, say, the Giro. I don't know if he'd actually win, and I guess we're unlikely to know this year as UAE have put him on domestique duties.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

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Rechtschreibfehler said:
Taking the watts2win data, yes, and also nothing this year is really that close to his career best performances yet.
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I mean it's obviously cause it's a 55 minute stage that's a false flat drag race to a 20 minute climb where the first part of the climb, when the peloton is bigger, is also slightly less steep so drafting becomes even bigger and gets to be even more underestimated.

I'm not even arguing that was his best performance, I'm just pointing it out for the massively flawed metric that it is.

There should also not be a real logical reason Pogacar does 6.75 or whatever it is for 25 minutes on Plat d'Adet and then does higher watts for much longer on Plateau de Beille after a longer and harder stage the next day, unless a large component of it is circumstantial.
 
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Tim Cahill

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Nah it's not his best raw performance by any measure but I think he's maybe at his best moment at this particular time of year that I've seen. Some will depend on whether he can continue an upwards form curve until July but to be honest winning this race would be a prestigious victory in and of itself, especially for someone who always seems to find a way to throw it. Not everything has to be about a GT and perhaps being told he wont have leadership, for obvious reasons has given him extra incentive to perform well in the spring.

6.5 w/kg for 32 minutes I think in Suisse was his best, it was a pretty hard stage too not that walk up to the climb they did the day after.
 
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YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Peyroteo94 said:
But you can't look to a 30 km stage. This year he already beat Vingegaard twice and he is on his way to win his first important race.
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Yep, but if we look at the results from slightly different perspective, in Algarve he beat Bardet (with all due respect) by 8 seconds and Morgado by 10, and in PN Skjelmose and Lenny Martinez by 2 seconds.
It tells me rather that Vingegaard was a level below than Almeida step above.

Yesterday he performed good, but you can still put some question marks on competition. That's the first big race when he doesn't have to work for Pogacar and he doesn't fight with the top GC riders (Roglic, Vingegaard, Evenepoel) so he naturally beats everyone.

Edit: He casually destroyed everyone but his team mate in TdS last year
 
Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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YavorD said:
Yep, but if we look at the results from slightly different perspective, in Algarve he beat Bardet (with all due respect) by 8 seconds and Morgado by 10, and in PN Skjelmose and Lenny Martinez by 2 seconds.
It tells me rather that Vingegaard was a level below than Almeida step above.

Yesterday he performed good, but you can still put some question marks on competition. That's the first big race when he doesn't have to work for Pogacar and he doesn't fight with the top GC riders (Roglic, Vingegaard, Evenepoel) so he naturally beats everyone.

Edit: He casually destroyed everyone but his team mate in TdS last year
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Beating Vingegaard twice is almost impossible to do unless your name is Pogacar. I'm not saying Almeida is close to Vingegaard's level, I'm just saying he never did these top performances in previous years. For me it is a bit silly to compare with TdS 2024, he still didn't race TdS 2025 so we never know what shape he will show there.
 
Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Red Rick said:
He was so injured he got 2nd in the TT the day before and won the mountain stage after.

He completely imploded, but it literally had nothing to do with a wrist injury in Liege.
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It had everything to do with his wrist injury. His suboptimal preparation took his tool just like Vingegaard last year. People tend to forget Pogacar crashed almost 3 weeks after Vingegaard (different years), even if Vingegaard had obviously way more severe injuries.
 
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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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James M said:
I'm not surprised anymore that the same handful people get surprised each race based on their projections. Guess what, people—riders improve each year, some more than others. It’s hardly controversial or difficult to admit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910414962100498718
View: https://x.com/Na1chaca/status/1910414962100498718
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So right and obvious! We also got some info on this. Always great when you can get such insight before the season starts. Very happy for Almeida as well. It is deserved.
 
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Rechtschreibfehler

Rechtschreibfehler

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James M said:
I'm not surprised anymore that the same handful people get surprised each race based on their projections. Guess what, people—riders improve each year, some more than others. It’s hardly controversial or difficult to admit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910414962100498718
View: https://x.com/Na1chaca/status/1910414962100498718
Click to expand...

Just so far not really in comparison with his last season if you look at the data. Hardly controversial or difficult to admit.
What he does do is that he seems to ride some of the races much better than he used to. But in pure power, where is the evidence he made significant progress?
 
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