João Almeida - Bota Lume

[Berniece]

It's funny you say this because you always mention 2024 Tour de France when you say Remco can win it. Almeida was in the top 5 in that Tour 🤔

The most ironic thing is that Almeida finished almost the same distance from Remco as Remco did from Pogacar

I never said Remco could win the TDF because of his performance in 2024…

Top 5 GT riders
Roglic
Pogacar
Vingegaard
Lipowitz
Evenepoel

 

[Cycling111]

I've always said I don't see Almeida winning a GT, but I think he's one of the top 5 riders y stage races.
Isn't Almeida more a top 5 rider than Remco a top1 for a Tour? And interestingly, there is more consensus on this probability.

He's not a GT winner, but he's very consistent in GC. He almost always finishes in the top 5.
He's more consistent than TAO, Hindley or Hesjedal.

Is someone who doesn't win a GT but someone taut is regularly in the top 5 against de best riders (no in a Giro or Vuelta against random rivals) isn't one of the top 5?

 

[James M]

In LRCP giro preview Broe did call Almeida clearly the third best GC rider and called him "underrated".

Just a tidbit off season chatter.

Almeida dropped Vingegaard 2–3 times last year. He had a good Vuelta, relatively speaking, despite awful preparation and getting sick during the Vuelta.

And if that isn’t enough, the sheer numbers showned the rise in his wattage throughout the year, for those able to read em that is. Almeida is easily the third-best GC rider going into this season. Imagine if anyone struggling with that.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I never said Remco could win the TDF because of his performance in 2024…

Top 5 GT riders
Roglic
Pogacar
Vingegaard
Lipowitz
Evenepoel

Lipo above Almeida is wild.

 

[Potomac]

How does Aleida rank in the list of active riders with the most GT top-5 finishes?

Straight copy and paste from PCS.
I'm not sure I agree with their definition of active.

per PCS

#	Rider	Total	Giro	Tour	Vuelta
1	FROOME Chris	12	1	6	5
2	ROGLIČ Primož	9	2	2	5
3	QUINTANA Nairo	8	2	3	3
4	POGAČAR Tadej	8	1	6	1
5	LANDA Mikel	7	3	3	1
6	VINGEGAARD Jonas	7	-	5	2
7	CARAPAZ Richard	7	4	1	2
8	MAS Enric	6	-	1	5
9	THOMAS Geraint	5	2	3	-
10	ALMEIDA João	5	2	1	2
11	MANCEBO Francisco	4	-	1	3
12	KRUIJSWIJK Steven	4	1	2	1
13	YATES Simon	4	2	1	1
14	YATES Adam	3	-	2	1
15	HINDLEY Jai	3	2	-	1
16	KELDERMAN Wilco	3	1	1	1
17	CARUSO Damiano	3	3	-	-
18	O'CONNOR Ben	3	1	1	1
19	CHAVES Esteban	3	1	-	2
20	AYUSO Juan	2	-	-	2
21	SEVILLA Óscar	2	-	-	2
22	BILBAO Pello	2	2	-	-
23	MARTÍNEZ Daniel Felipe	2	2	-	-
24	VLASOV Aleksandr	2	1	1	-
25	BERNAL Egan	2	1	1	-
26	EVENEPOEL Remco	2	-	1	1
27	MOLLEMA Bauke	2	1	-	1
28	MAJKA Rafał	2	1	-	1
29	CARTHY Hugh	1	-	-	1

 

[aphronesis]

So 4-6 then ahead of this year?

 

[Potomac]

So 4-6 then ahead of this year?

Dropping Froome and Thomas off the list pulls him up to 8th on the above.

 

[aphronesis]

Nairo? And the speculation/hypothesis is looking forward. Or, present potential.

 

[Berniece]

Lipo above Almeida is wild.

My mistake was that I read GT, but they meant GC, so also in 1-week racing. I agree Almeida is better than Lipowitz in the average GC because most are only 1 week long

 

[YavorD]

My mistake was that I read GT, but they meant GC, so also in 1-week racing. I agree Almeida is better than Lipowitz in the average GC because most are only 1 week long

But why should Lipo be clearly better GT rider than Almeida as well?
And if we lean so much on 2025, to put Lipo above Almeida, we should do it for Roglic and Evenepoel as well. And then Almeida is 4th at the worse.

 

[YavorD]

@Berniece Besides, the balance between Evenepoel and Almeida (and Lipowitz for that matter) is pretty funny. Evenepoel will likely win more GT's, but both will probably accumulate more high GT placings.
So what's better? Consistency or high ceilings?

 

[vappaxbipmv]

@Berniece Besides, the balance between Evenepoel and Almeida (and Lipowitz for that matter) is pretty funny. Evenepoel will likely win more GT's, but both will probably accumulate more high GT placings.
So what's better? Consistency or high ceilings?

High ceiling, no doubt about it. But it's entirely realistic that Almeida wins the Vuelta next year and Remco doesn't win the Tour in which case they'd be neck and neck in GT results and Almeida has much better 1 week stage race results

 

[Cookster15]

So what's better? Consistency or high ceilings?

Wins (high ceilings) of course.

I think the view on Lipo would be based upon his 2025 TdF level although it remains to be seen if he is better than Almeida who I think is underestimated. Not sure he can rival Remco though.

 

[YavorD]

Wins (high ceilings) of course.

I think the view on Lipo would be based upon his 2025 TdF level although it remains to be seen if he is better than Almeida who I think is underestimated. Not sure he can rival Remco though.

I personally don't find Tour 2025 pretty convincing. The whole field after Lipo was rather tame IMO.
Of course, people like Onley, THJ, Vauquelin, even Gall and Healy can back it up with more GT GC results in future, but prior to the Tour they had ONE GT top 10 between themselves

 

[aphronesis]

I personally don't find Tour 2025 pretty convincing. The whole field after Lipo was rather tame IMO.
Of course, people like Onley, THJ, Vauquelin, even Gall and Healy can back it up with more GT GC results in future, but prior to the Tour they had ONE GT top 10 between themselves

Who in the remaining field was seriously riding for GC and not just doing the work at the Tour?

 

[YavorD]

Who in the remaining field was seriously riding for GC and not just doing the work at the Tour?

Well nobody, but that's the point.
All Lipowitz had to do was beat a bunch of nobodies (with all the respect) in terms of GT results at the time.
And not even GT results to be honest. Riders that actively rode for GC besides Lipo(Roglic wasn't) had how much? 2 gc podiums even in 1 week races (between each other)?

Now I may be proven wrong in future, but besides Pog, Vingegaard and Roglic (who wasn't really riding for GC IMO) this may be the weakest top 10 in terms of GC results at the time.

 

[aphronesis]

My point also.

I believe Roglic when he said he just wanted to finish (at a level.)

 

[Sciatic]

Meh, Pogacar has been sandbagging--still hasn't passed Nairo for total podiums

 

[Potomac]

Meh, Pogacar has been sandbagging--still has passed Nairo for total podiums

Nairo has been sandbagging, letting Pog get close before he slams the the door on him.

 

[Berniece]

@Berniece Besides, the balance between Evenepoel and Almeida (and Lipowitz for that matter) is pretty funny. Evenepoel will likely win more GT's, but both will probably accumulate more high GT placings.
So what's better? Consistency or high ceilings?

In case of Evenepoel I expect him to ride better 1-week race results too. If he can become consistent he should get better results than Almeida

 

[YavorD]

In case of Evenepoel I expect him to ride better 1-week race results too. If he can become consistent he should get better results than Almeida

Agreed. Evenepoel should definitely win a few 1 weekers.
Providing he doesn't go full classics, of course.

 

[Potomac]

Well if GT wins are going to be the measure then clearly Kuss is ahead of Almeida and Lipo.

 

[Cycling111]

Well if GT wins are going to be the measure then clearly Kuss is ahead of Almeida and Lipo.

That would be like equating him to Remco because they've both won a Vuelta.

 

[Potomac]

That would be like equating him to Remco because they've both won a Vuelta.

That would be like equating him to Remco because they've both won a Vuelta.

Good point! I think Remco might edge him out with success in some lesser stage races though.

 

[Squire]

All Lipowitz had to do was beat a bunch of nobodies (with all the respect) in terms of GT results at the time.

This is such a strange and nonsensical perspective to take in the '3rd best GT rider' discussion. I don't think anybody who is arguing Lipowitz' case puts any emphasis on who he beat. That is quite irrelevant. The thing worth looking at is how relatively close he was to the aliens in terms of climbing. There's clearly a case to be made for having him in this discussion. There is of course the sample size issue, but if we had more data points, this wouldn't be such a discussion in the first place.

Personally I'm not sure who will turn out to be the strongest between Lipo, Almeida and Evenepoel (and I think Ayuso could still potentially throw his name into the hat), but I think all three of them definitely are in the discussion. Based on the Vuelta and his general level across the past couple of seasons though, I believe the Red Bull guys would really have their hands full with an Almeida that's firing on all cylinders. So my gut feeling tells me he might just come out on top.