Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard: The Butterfly Effect

[scribers]

After all the speculation, Vingo’s abilities have been finally exposed. What he’s done is amazing and we are still in a race with promise ahead. He has not raced since the crash. Insane

 

[Cookster15]

I think he will lose 30"-60" in the ITT to Pogi. If that's all he will lose until Pla d'Adet, his winning path is straightforward. But he will need to actually get stronger than Pogi, and that's no guarantee.

The path might be straightforward but the execution isn't.

The roles seem reversed with UAE compared to 2022/2023? But its a long way to go and we still have 2 1/2 weeks and a back-ended parcours for Pog to feel the Giro in his legs and Vinge's miraculous recovery to come to the fore. Vingo has already stunned everyone with what he showed on stage 2 and today. Vingegaard's next concern must be the TT.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

Since he expected to lose 2 minutes in the first 4 stages I think he is doing well and as he said 'My time will come'

His confidence is great to behold

 

[Cookster15]

Since he expected to lose 2 minutes in the first 4 stages I think he is doing well and as he said 'My time will come'

His confidence is great to behold

Confidence or arrogance? 'My time will come' is a fair comment. But also saying you expected to lose 2 minutes is disrespectful.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

Confidence or arrogance? 'My time will come' is a fair comment. But also saying you expected to lose 2 minutes is disrespectful.

He was disrespectful ?

he and his team expected to lose more as he is not long out of the hospital ..

Jesus give the guy a break ...he was answering a question....Pog can do no wrong and yet Vinge is always wrong....rubbish

If you ask me Pog has alot of swagger about him ...

 

[Extinction]

Vingegaard now needs to crack Pogacar in the third week. Is he able that is the question, and after his crash?

 

[Salvarani]

Confidence or arrogance? 'My time will come' is a fair comment. But also saying you expected to lose 2 minutes is disrespectful.

I dont think it is disrespectful, more like regular trash talk and mind games.

It sounds better to say "I expected to lose 2 minutes", after you just lost close to 1 minute.

Sending a message with "My time will come", that he still wont be giving up anytime soon about the win.

He has some time to ride himself into form or hope his recovery kicks until week 2 and week 3. He will have to limit the damage in the first ITT, I reckon.

However, whats more worrying is that his teammates is not looking up to the task this year. Missing Van Baarle, Kruijswijk and Kuss deeply. Add Van Aert who seems to be 85% atm.

Lemmen and Kelderman looking far from convincing. Jorgenson will do his best, but this is another level above than what he is used to.

Laporte and Tratnik just okay, but nothing more.

Still, the last three days decides the Tour. Arrive as best and as close as you can for the finale. A lot can happen.

 

[Cookster15]

I dont think it is disrespectful, more like regular trash talk and mind games.

He spoke in the spare of the moment. But he could have better chosen his words. I found the comments very un-Vingo like - more what I would expect from Richard Plugge. Agree with the rest of your post.

The reversal in team strength compared to 2022 and 2023 might prove to be the difference. But we don't know if Pog might fade or if Vingo's interrupted training might reveal itself in the third week. A long way to go.

 

[Bolder]

I dont think it is disrespectful, more like regular trash talk and mind games.

It sounds better to say "I expected to lose 2 minutes", after you just lost close to 1 minute.

Sending a message with "My time will come", that he still wont be giving up anytime soon about the win.

He has some time to ride himself into form or hope his recovery kicks until week 2 and week 3. He will have to limit the damage in the first ITT, I reckon.

However, whats more worrying is that his teammates is not looking up to the task this year. Missing Van Baarle, Kruijswijk and Kuss deeply. Add Van Aert who seems to be 85% atm.

Lemmen and Kelderman looking far from convincing. Jorgenson will do his best, but this is another level above than what he is used to.

Laporte and Tratnik just okay, but nothing more.

Still, the last three days decides the Tour. Arrive as best and as close as you can for the finale. A lot can happen.

Visma is about 10% as strong as UAE in the mountains, if today's stage is any indication.

 

[slim charles]

Since he expected to lose 2 minutes in the first 4 stages I think he is doing well and as he said 'My time will come'

His confidence is great to behold

Does anyone really buy that he expected to lose 2 minutes?
I'm sure he actually is confident, but this makes it sound anything but, sounds more like he is trying to encourage himself (which is perfectly fine)

 

[Cookster15]

Interesting that Pog gapped Felix Gall today. Not sure how significant that might be?

 

[Offline]

Since he expected to lose 2 minutes in the first 4 stages I think he is doing well and as he said 'My time will come'

His confidence is great to behold

hmm

He maybe sounded confident. But didn’t look confident in the interview

 

[Froome]

Vingo lost almost nothing in the first 7-8 km of descent. He started losing more on the more powerful and shallower section.

Obviously it's not over, there are actually a few guys still in contention.

I was suspecting of headwind in the powerful and shallower section, and it looks like it was true.
On this case, it was normal Vingegaard losing more than 20 s to Pogacar there. He is just 58 kg and against the wind, it was a real problem for him due to being so light.

Looking at the circumstances and the conditions, it wasn't that bad for Vingegaard, plus him not being in top shape yet.

Emirates and Pogacar were very smart and prepared very well this stage. Just like in San luca he attacked again just in the last meters of the climb to take advantage of his explosiveness and get a small gap, then the headwind in the last section of the descent also helped on increasing the gap.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808210279445955063

View: https://x.com/teledeporte/status/1808210279445955063

 

[Lorzenz08]

There's the TT, then nothing interesting for the GC until stage 14. (baring accident or big surprise).

Will Vingo progress in the next 10 days ? Can Pogi maintain his level for the next 2.5 weeks ? These are the 2 big questions in my opinion.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

There's the TT, then nothing interesting for the GC until stage 14. (baring accident or big surprise).

Will Vingo progress in the next 10 days ? Can Pogi maintain his level for the next 2.5 weeks ? These are the 2 big questions in my opinion.

Stage 11 has 4 successive climbs at the end, the second, Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol, includes a ca. 1k 13% section at the top of the climb. That's enough for Pogacar to make a difference and never be seen again until the finish. Who's gonna stop him from doing this?

 

[scribers]

Stage 11 has 4 successive climbs at the end, the second, Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol, includes a ca. 1k 13% section at the top of the climb. That's enough for Pogacar to make a difference and never be seen again until the finish. Who's gonna stop him from doing this?

I won’t stop him

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I was suspecting of headwind in the powerful and shallower section, and it looks like it was true.
On this case, it was normal Vingegaard losing more than 20 s to Pogacar there. He is just 58 kg and against the wind, it was a real problem for him due to being so light.

Looking at the circumstances and the conditions, it wasn't that bad for Vingegaard, plus him not being in top shape yet.

Emirates and Pogacar were very smart and prepared very well this stage. Just like in San luca he attacked again just in the last meters of the climb to take advantage of his explosiveness and get a small gap, then the headwind in the last section of the descent also helped on increasing the gap.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808210279445955063

View: https://x.com/teledeporte/status/1808210279445955063

I think Vingo actually showed great level uphill so far (on Galibier his loss was similar to Puy de Dome last year, so nothing big). However, his time loss later was more telling to me: it looked like he was fading actually (it wouldn't have happened if he was in form from last years ITT or Marie Blanque stage, when he was flying on any part of it, powerful downhills included). That's why I think his first ITT this year will be substantially slower than Pogacar's (i.e. by 30-50 seconds).

Also the difference vs Puy de Dome is that last year they basically demolished everybody on that stage while this time Remco wasn't far off, he's definitely a contender as well.

 

[Peter von]

Does anyone really buy that he expected to lose 2 minutes?
I'm sure he actually is confident, but this makes it sound anything but, sounds more like he is trying to encourage himself (which is perfectly fine)

Didn’t he say up to two mins?

As in two mins would be worst case, realistic best case was probably the bonus seconds.

 

[Martinstranger]

He spoke in the spare of the moment. But he could have better chosen his words. I found the comments very un-Vingo like - more what I would expect from Richard Plugge. Agree with the rest of your post.

The reversal in team strength compared to 2022 and 2023 might prove to be the difference. But we don't know if Pog might fade or if Vingo's interrupted training might reveal itself in the third week. A long way to go.

Can't really see why this is disrespectful? It seems like a very "clean" observation just like last year - the only thing is that Visma are more open about what they expect to happen later in the race. Almost everyone thought Pogacar had it bagged last year but down the road everything played out like Visma expected.

But the reversal in team strenght is interesting and we do have a race again this year. I love it

Does anyone really buy that he expected to lose 2 minutes?
I'm sure he actually is confident, but this makes it sound anything but, sounds more like he is trying to encourage himself (which is perfectly fine)

I'm surprised that Pogacar dit not collect more bonus seconds in the first stages - but he might think he don't need them in the end. Or that his team would get tired too early.

 

[slim charles]

Didn’t he say up to two mins?

As in two mins would be worst case, realistic best case was probably the bonus seconds.

I guess that makes more sense. Either way, I doubt visma is counting on being almost a minute down - afraid of it perhaps..

It's not that important, though, what they say or think. I'm sure Vingegaard believes he can still win and will try to do it. I'm not sure it is possible but I'm happy that he is in decent (to put it mildly) form and will try things.

 

[Peter von]

I doubt visma is counting on being almost a minute down - afraid of it perhaps..

It's not that important, though, what they say or think. I'm sure Vingegaard believes he can still win and will try to do it. I'm not sure it is possible but I'm happy that he is in decent (to put it mildly) form and will try things.

indeed, I think they are just betting on his better recovery to kick in later on.

Pretty sure they were always planning on his recovery advantage will make the difference in third week.

 

[Froome]

indeed, I think they are just betting on his better recovery to kick in later on.

Pretty sure they were always planning on his recovery advantage will make the difference in third week.

It's not just his recovery. He always push more watts in the last week, at least in 2022 and 2023.

 

[Peter von]

It's not just his recovery. He always push more watts in the last week, at least in 2022 and 2023.

yes, timing of his peak then, it's always more complicated than just recovery.