Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard: The Wizard of Visma

[Red Rick]

If we look the spring of last year, the TdF of last year, and the spring of this year, I'm really not sure how it looks any better for Pogacar in any way when looking at the Tour de France head to head. Pogacar went from dominating the spring to ... dominating the spring? While Vingegaard went from being toothless and winning one 1.1 race before the Dauphine to destryoing Itzulia with 3 stage wins.

Between them, Vingegaards advantage is much more significant than Pogacars. Being the better pure climber is the #1 metric in the Tour, and he also beat Pog with ease in the final ITT in both 2022 and 2021.

Pogacar meanwhile is gonna take where? Bonus seconds? That's not gonna make up for getting dropped on the big climbs.

Unless ofcourse you believe Pogacar is equally good on the long climbs or will destroy Vingegaard on the shorter ones. Which you can ofcourse base on Pogacar beating Van der Poel in De Ronde van Vlaanderen, as we all know beating a classics rider in a classic is a much better predictor for the Tour de France GC than the actual Tour de France of the previous year.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't believe all that much changed from last year. Except for Jonas being a leader in more stage races.

In my opinion Pogi likely still has an edge in ITT, MTF sprint, general sprint and doing more damage when attacking. Jonas on the other hand likely still can't get dropped by Pogi.

The main question hence is can Jonas drop Pogi, climbing, to win the Tour. Some will say yes he can. He did it at Tour 2022. But people saying that tend not to put much significance to stage 11. Don't see it as the Tour win defining moment.

Hence i guess best to wait and see. As Pogi vs Jonas is something we will get to see often in the future and the road will tell.

 

[Andy schleck]

Love to see people underestimating Pogi just because Vingegaard made some monster efforts against weak competition. Pogacar as underdog, will probably be a threat even bigger than he is.

Nobody is underestimating pogacar. I even think the performances of pogacar on the third week of last year's tour are underrated! They were really good.

 

[Red Rick]

Nobody is underestimating pogacar. I even think the performances of pogacar on the third week of last year's tour are underrated! They were really good.

Tactical underestimation to keep the unbeatable myth alive.

 

[YavorD]

If we look the spring of last year, the TdF of last year, and the spring of this year, I'm really not sure how it looks any better for Pogacar in any way when looking at the Tour de France head to head. Pogacar went from dominating the spring to ... dominating the spring? While Vingegaard went from being toothless and winning one 1.1 race before the Dauphine to destryoing Itzulia with 3 stage wins.

Between them, Vingegaards advantage is much more significant than Pogacars. Being the better pure climber is the #1 metric in the Tour, and he also beat Pog with ease in the final ITT in both 2022 and 2021.

Thing is, Pogacar really didn't have room to improve in this spring, besides one can argue his Flanders this year was better than last year's.
At the same time Vingegaard, obviously, had room to progress, so he just did. Call it natural if you like.
In the Tour, however, Pog can be better/wiser than last year, plus he is the one that needs to follow (which may be advantage). As for Vingo IIRC his performance was described as one of the best in the last 20 years, so the question is, can he really improve on that? I'd still rate him as a slight favorite, but I don't think the difference between them is 3-4 minutes.

 

[Peyroteo94]

If we look the spring of last year, the TdF of last year, and the spring of this year, I'm really not sure how it looks any better for Pogacar in any way when looking at the Tour de France head to head. Pogacar went from dominating the spring to ... dominating the spring? While Vingegaard went from being toothless and winning one 1.1 race before the Dauphine to destryoing Itzulia with 3 stage wins.

Between them, Vingegaards advantage is much more significant than Pogacars. Being the better pure climber is the #1 metric in the Tour, and he also beat Pog with ease in the final ITT in both 2022 and 2021.

Pogacar meanwhile is gonna take where? Bonus seconds? That's not gonna make up for getting dropped on the big climbs.

Unless ofcourse you believe Pogacar is equally good on the long climbs or will destroy Vingegaard on the shorter ones. Which you can ofcourse base on Pogacar beating Van der Poel in De Ronde van Vlaanderen, as we all know beating a classics rider in a classic is a much better predictor for the Tour de France GC than the actual Tour de France of the previous year.

What can Pogacar do better than dominating in March and April? Last year, he crushed TA. What could he possibly do more than crush Vingegaard at PN? Winning PN with a 5 minutes gap?

 

[Peyroteo94]

And If Pogacar was in pais vasco instead of Vingegaard? I'm pretty sure Pogacar would do the same or even better. Or am I wrong?

 

[Extinction]

And If Pogacar was in pais vasco instead of Vingegaard? I'm pretty sure Pogacar would do the same or even better. Or am I wrong?

Hoestly, especially after Flanders, I think you are wrong. That's not underestimating Pogacar, but realism. Besides Vingeggard isn't exactly chopper liver.

PS. I'm considering both at PV, although I realize you didn't say that.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Hoestly, especially after Flanders, I think you are wrong. That's not underestimating Pogacar, but realism. Besides Vingeggard isn't exactly chopper liver.

PS. I'm considering both at PV, although I realize you didn't say that.

If Pogacar was in the same situation as Vingegaard. Without doing Ronde, just focusing on winning PV. You don't believe the outcome would be the same? Pogacar would win this stage race by a large margin too in my humble opinion of course.

 

[Rackham]

The Col de la Loze in the Courchevel stage is going to be Vingegaard's target in the TdF, for sure. It's where Rog (mini) dropped Pogacar 3 years ago.

I still think the power dynamic between Vingegaard & Pogacar will be heavily determined by which rider needs to be more aggressive & hunt for seconds. The one who gets to be more defensive is going to have an advantage.

I mean if Jumbo tactically catch Pogacar again (they've done it twice now in 3 years, i.e. with the echelon stage in 2020 & the Granon stage in 2022) & put him behind in GC, then yeah Vingegaard is going to win. But if Pogacar out punches Vingegaard in the first week & then sucks his wheel like a #wheelsucking God, then Pog is going to win the TdF because I just don't think he'll get dropped.

I just think he'll cope better with an offensive Vingegaard rather than a defensive Vingegaard.

 

[Extinction]

If Pogacar was in the same situation as Vingegaard. Without doing Ronde, just focusing on winning PV. You don't believe the outcome would be the same? Pogacar would win this stage race by a large margin too in my humble opinion of course.

Right, in theory, likely, but he didn't do this program and the point is how this places them in the greater economy of the Tour build-up. They are on different trajectories, however, I think Vingeggard is now better poised.

 

[Red Rick]

The Col de la Loze in the Courchevel stage is going to be Vingegaard's target in the TdF, for sure. It's where Rog (mini) dropped Pogacar 3 years ago.

I still think the power dynamic between Vingegaard & Pogacar will be heavily determined by which rider needs to be more aggressive & hunt for seconds. The one who gets to be more defensive is going to have an advantage.

I mean if Jumbo tactically catch Pogacar again (they've done it twice now in 3 years, i.e. with the echelon stage in 2020 & the Granon stage in 2022) & put him behind in GC, then yeah Vingegaard is going to win. But if Pogacar out punches Vingegaard in the first week & then sucks his wheel like a #wheelsucking God, then Pog is going to win the TdF because I just don't think he'll get dropped.

I just think he'll cope better with an offensive Vingegaard rather than a defensive Vingegaard.

If I was confident Vingegaard had the goods I would never wait until the penultimate mountain stage.

If anything if I was confident I would already go for it as early as the Tourmalet. Especially if I can get riders in the break that day

 

[Peyroteo94]

If I was confident Vingegaard had the goods I would never wait until the penultimate mountain stage.

If anything if I was confident I would already go for it as early as the Tourmalet. Especially if I can get riders in the break that day

I have the same opinion but Tourmalet is too early in the race so I don't think Vingegaard can drop Pogi there.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't feel that Pogi will wait. For JV to apply their tactics. Racing should be similar to PN.

Some tactical hesitance from Pogi side might happen if Rogla and Jonas will both participate. And on top of that to apply pressure on Pogi early. That is for the pressure to be of such magnitude that it can make a difference.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Doubt it. Professional cyclists are typically (on average) more introverted, less social, and often bigger weirdo's than say footballers.

There's a reason why many of them embraced this activity - long hours of lonely suffering - in the first place. And it wasn't they're social butterflies.

Well, this can be a compound effect. I mean skinny male climbers tend to not be as popular with the ladies as more muscular sportsman (like Sam Welshman), and this likely adds to a desire to lead a more introverted lifestyle (or at least less temptation to lead a more extroverted and social one).

 

[gregrowlerson]

Lol, Pogacar is underestimated... if anything it's Vingegaard who's underestimated, people expecting things to go back to 'normal' this year, i.e. a Pogi win. That could very well be, but the Vingegaard we saw in Paris-Nice clearly isn't the one we're going to see in the Tour.

I agree.

Some Roglic fans are so fanatical that they feel the need to talk down Vingegaard (like how in basketball goat wars LeBron fans will talk up Pippen to downplay Jordan). If Jonas can arrive in July with at least the same form as last year then he will be a scary proposition for Pogacar.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Terrible weather, so I back Pogacar on that one.

Having said that, I only notice now that Theuns literally climbed Colombiere faster than the GC guys, so they must have snorted some great vintage G2 dynamics that day.

G2's a hell of a drug.

 

[Rackham]

I don't feel that Pogi will wait. For JV to apply their tactics. Racing should be similar to PN.

Some tactical hesitance from Pogi side might happen if Rogla and Jonas will both participate. And on top of that to apply pressure on Pogi early. That is for the pressure to be of such magnitude that it can make a difference.

If Rogla participates in the TdF it changes everything - even with a Giro in his legs (insofar as he's not injured or anything either).

He might not be able to hit those insane 2042 VAM 7,46 w/kg numbers but his mere presence in the group would mean Pogacar would be once again tactically screwed for large parts of the race because even as a third strongest man, Roglič would still be close enough to be considered dangerous.

So Vingegaard would de-facto be favorite again for the TdF. But I don't believe Rog actually will go & he's attempting a Giro-Vuelta double instead (because Jumbo want a clean sweep of GT's this year, i.e. Giro-Tour-Vuelta, with two different riders). I think Jumbo believe Vingegaard is strong enough to beat Pogacar alone this time.

I agree.

Some Roglic fans are so fanatical that they feel the need to talk down Vingegaard (like how in basketball goat wars LeBron fans will talk up Pippen to downplay Jordan). If Jonas can arrive in July with at least the same form as last year then he will be a scary proposition for Pogacar.

Yes, let the persecution of Jonas Vingegaard by Rog fans flow through this thread.

Good.

Still, Jonas was a most excellent bottle carrier for Rog. He seems to have improved a bit since those days (just a little), but he shouldn't forget his roots.

Fisherman > bidon carrier > whatever he is now.

 

[Gigs_98]

What can Pogacar do better than dominating in March and April? Last year, he crushed TA. What could he possibly do more than crush Vingegaard at PN? Winning PN with a 5 minutes gap?

Nothing really. But that's the thing, Pogacar is the one who was beaten in last years Tour, so he is the one who must improve. Yet for this spring Vingegaard is the one who did.

To be fair I don't think this means Vingegaard will be even better. But I do think it's likely Vingegaard will at least reach last years level again meaning Pogacar would have to improve. And that's why I think Vingegaard is again the favorite for the tour.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Nothing really. But that's the thing, Pogacar is the one who was beaten in last years Tour, so he is the one who must improve. Yet for this spring Vingegaard is the one who did.

To be fair I don't think this means Vingegaard will be even better. But I do think it's likely Vingegaard will at least reach last years level again meaning Pogacar would have to improve. And that's why I think Vingegaard is again the favorite for the tour.

I agree with you but I will just put here one question to make people think. Are you sure Pogacar isn't better than last year? Last year, he didn't beat a sup optimal MVP in Flanders,in fact, he couldn't drop him. This year, he crushed the best MVP we ever seen in Flanders. Can you really say Pogacar didn't improve?

 

[Red Rick]

I agree.

Some Roglic fans are so fanatical that they feel the need to talk down Vingegaard (like how in basketball goat wars LeBron fans will talk up Pippen to downplay Jordan). If Jonas can arrive in July with at least the same form as last year then he will be a scary proposition for Pogacar.

Is it?

I rate Vingegaard higher than Roglic I just want Roglic to get 3 week Gran Casino win and his annual Iberian farming holiday which was canceled last year

 

[gregrowlerson]

Is it?

I rate Vingegaard higher than Roglic I just want Roglic to get 3 week Gran Casino win and his annual Iberian farming holiday which was canceled last year

I said some Roglic fans.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If we look the spring of last year, the TdF of last year, and the spring of this year, I'm really not sure how it looks any better for Pogacar in any way when looking at the Tour de France head to head. Pogacar went from dominating the spring to ... dominating the spring? While Vingegaard went from being toothless and winning one 1.1 race before the Dauphine to destryoing Itzulia with 3 stage wins.

Between them, Vingegaards advantage is much more significant than Pogacars. Being the better pure climber is the #1 metric in the Tour, and he also beat Pog with ease in the final ITT in both 2022 and 2021.

Pogacar meanwhile is gonna take where? Bonus seconds? That's not gonna make up for getting dropped on the big climbs.

Unless ofcourse you believe Pogacar is equally good on the long climbs or will destroy Vingegaard on the shorter ones. Which you can ofcourse base on Pogacar beating Van der Poel in De Ronde van Vlaanderen, as we all know beating a classics rider in a classic is a much better predictor for the Tour de France GC than the actual Tour de France of the previous year.

Pretty much this. Last year Vingegaard was mostly an NPC outside july. Even losing to the 'weak opposition' as apparently Mas and Landa are called these days.
Now he was actually good in every race he did. Sure he got countered by Pogi in Paris Nice and he blew himself up there, but that was just trial and error ahead of the Tour.

Pogacar is just the same as last year, that he was stronger in RVV than last year says nothing about his ability on very long climbs.

 

[Andy schleck]

I agree with you but I will just put here one question to make people think. Are you sure Pogacar isn't better than last year? Last year, he didn't beat a sup optimal MVP in Flanders,in fact, he couldn't drop him. This year, he crushed the best MVP we ever seen in Flanders. Can you really say Pogacar didn't improve?

Pogacar may have improved in tour flandres. It's different of " improve"to the tour france.
If you look at his performances on february and PN, they are the same level of 2022.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar may have improved in tour flandres. It's different of " improve"to the tour france.
If you look at his performances on february and PN, they are the same level of 2022.

In fact, I think we don't know. If Vingegaard is better this year, what Pogi did in PN was better than Pogi in TA last year because he beat a better Vingegaard. We are just assuming when we will only have clear answers in the Tour. I think they are equal favourites.