People are forgetting that Giro-Tour is a very hard task. No way, Roglic will fight for the win on both races.
I don't think anyone is forgetting that. But Rog has already shown he can maintain a high level for two GT's in succession. This would be a whole new level requirement of course but even from a neutral point of view he would be easy 3rd favorite & a sure bet for the podium.
Who would beat him? Gaudu?
Team has said that Roglic "normally does not ride the Tour". To me that means if he's healthy and in shape going into the Giro, doesn't crash and finishes properly, no matter the result, he doesn't race the Tour.
I don't really see why Roglic would even want to.
You're probably right but the team said he wouldn't ride Tirreno either. I mean who knows (it's just speculation anyway) but maybe roll the dice one last time & see what the Gods of cycling have in store for him in July? Technically speaking he probably shouldn't have won the Vuelta 2020 either, i.e. one of Rog's great strengths is that he knows how to maximize his potential & sometimes get results which normally would be out of reach.
I mean meh, I'm just daydreaming here but I can totally picture a scenario where Roglič at the beshest of Jumbo's tacticians launches a long ranger again in a mountain stage, yet this time Pog watches him go & says "nah, I think not". So he just sits there. Vingegaard watches in horror as Rog catches up with Mark Padun up the road who pulls like a super tractor & Rog finishes with 3 minutes gained. Pogacar's only reaction is "sh*t".