Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Red Rick]

If the level is similar to the Giro this year, Vingegaard could definitely win without being 100%. I was not impressed at literally any point outside of the first time trial by Evenepoel and that one very hard dig by Roglic (and Hart) at the hilly stage. Important to remember that Roglic was not at 100% either (I assume) and that Remco got COVID, maybe then it would have looked different. But in the end, that was not only a whack Giro to follow, but I also don't think the level was anything special at all (which probably also contributed to it being such a defensive slugfest).

Jumbo can look at Kuss' data. Kuss was pretty much his normal peak level at the Tour. Question is can Vingegaard hit a crazy peak in July after being at the Giro in May.

It's also not just about level, but also fatigue. I don't think the dogshit weather of this Giro would have helped very much.

 

[theyoungest]

If the level is similar to the Giro this year, Vingegaard could definitely win without being 100%. I was not impressed at literally any point outside of the first time trial by Evenepoel and that one very hard dig by Roglic (and Hart) at the hilly stage. Important to remember that Roglic was not at 100% either (I assume) and that Remco got COVID, maybe then it would have looked different. But in the end, that was not only a whack Giro to follow, but I also don't think the level was anything special at all (which probably also contributed to it being such a defensive slugfest).

A lot has been said about this Giro, how boring it was, how boring Roglic raced, how low the level must have been. But you just can't simply ignore the circumstances, which were dreadful. I actually don't know how well Vingegaard handles the cold and the rain. He's a rather skinny fellow so my guess is: not very well. Roglic had to deal with that, plus a crash which eliminated every other rider who crashed... except him.

 

[Peter von]

The level in the giro this year was weak. Pogacar or vingegaard could win the giro without being in top shape.

True. But that’s because everyone crashed and caught a cold, Covid for the unlucky ones.

 

[SHAD0W93]

A lot has been said about this Giro, how boring it was, how boring Roglic raced, how low the level must have been. But you just can't simply ignore the circumstances, which were dreadful. I actually don't know how well Vingegaard handles the cold and the rain. He's a rather skinny fellow so my guess is: not very well. Roglic had to deal with that, plus a crash which eliminated every other rider who crashed... except him.

Wasn’t Thomas in that crash too or was that a different one?

 

[Red Rick]

Wasn’t Thomas in that crash too or was that a different one?

Thomas fell on Covi, right?

The latter said he finally knew what it was like to feel the weight of the pink jersey

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't know. I believe Vingegaard can win the Giro without being at 100% (I mean honestly, considering the gap he and Pog had on everyone else in the Tour, whether he could do that isn't even a question) but history has shown time and time again that doing the Giro isn't great for your Tour preparation. People like to point to stuff like Froome doing a Tour-Vuelta double in 2017 or Dumoulins two 2nd places in 2018 but:

1. There are way more cases of unsuccessful such attempts than there are of successful ones, especially if we focus only on Giro-Tour and not Tour-Vuelta.
2. Even if those attempts are "successful" they are successful in the sense that the riders were capable of keeping a decent level over the 2nd GT. But none of those performances had any spark. Dumoulin in 2018 was just consistently riding with Thomas and narrowly won the TT. Froome won the 2017 Vuelta by covering Nibali on the mountain stages while watching him blow up on every single murito. Nothing in those races convinced me they were actually at their absolute peak.

So, yeah, of course a Giro-Vuelta double is still possible. But as long as Pogacar is around, being only slightly below Vingegaards level, all a double attempt by Vingegaard would achieve is making Pog the favorite for the Tour. Also worth mentioning that Pog and UAE would be thinking the exact same thing and would probably try to wreak havoc on every single Giro stage just to f*ck up Vingegaards preparation.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't know. I believe Vingegaard can win the Giro without being at 100% (I mean honestly, considering the gap he and Pog had on everyone else in the Tour, whether he could do that isn't even a question) but history has shown time and time again that doing the Giro isn't great for your Tour preparation. People like to point to stuff like Froome doing a Tour-Vuelta double in 2017 or Dumoulins two 2nd places in 2018 but:

1. There are way more cases of unsuccessful such attempts than there are of successful ones, especially if we focus only on Giro-Tour and not Tour-Vuelta.
2. Even if those attempts are "successful" they are successful in the sense that the riders were capable of keeping a decent level over the 2nd GT. But none of those performances had any spark. Dumoulin in 2018 was just consistently riding with Thomas and narrowly won the TT. Froome won the 2017 Vuelta by covering Nibali on the mountain stages while watching him blow up on every single murito. Nothing in those races convinced me they were actually at their absolute peak.

So, yeah, of course a Giro-Vuelta double is still possible. But as long as Pogacar is around, being only slightly below Vingegaards level, all a double attempt by Vingegaard would achieve is making Pog the favorite for the Tour. Also worth mentioning that Pog and UAE would be thinking the exact same thing and would probably try to wreak havoc on every single Giro stage just to f*ck up Vingegaards preparation.

Quintana 2016. Below peak Tour, flying at Vuelta. Valverde in 2012 and 2014 too. Menchov in 2008 was better in Tour than Giro. Wiggins and Armstrong did the Giro in 2009.

The thing with Giro/Tour is the guys who can do it don't try because of opportunity cost.

 

[Netserk]

Yep. If you are serious, then number one priority is doing the Giro in a way that allows you to hit your peak in the Tour. It's better to fail the double like Indurain in 1994 than like Contador in 2015.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Giro-Tour is way more difficult because everyone is in peak shape in the Tour. So if you have a demanding race like Giro in the legs, Tour will crack you because every stage is ridden full gas.

 

[Red Rick]

Quintana 2016. Below peak Tour, flying at Vuelta. Valverde in 2012 and 2014 too. Menchov in 2008 was better in Tour than Giro. Wiggins and Armstrong did the Giro in 2009.

The thing with Giro/Tour is the guys who can do it don't try because of opportunity cost.

How can I forget.

Pello Bilbao had like 3 weeks of rest between the Tour and Giro in 2020 and hit top level in the Giro. In 2021, he did Giro/Tour and did better in the Tour.

 

[tobydawq]

He should have done it this year, if he wanted to do it.

People who have had these fantasies of something to go for down the road often find that down the road they will not be as strong and it will not be realistic (which I don't know if it is now).

But yeah, Valverde was 3rd in Giro, 6th in Tour where he babysat for Quintana and then he was lying 3rd in the Vuelta two weeks in (where the GC was quite settled, he had a minute and a half to number 4) until he cracked badly on the Col d'Aubisque stage. Curiously, that crack stood alone and after, he was back to a good level. Not enough to recover a top 10 spot, though, sadly.

 

[Berniece]

Also Roglic needs to leave JV, because there’s no way that he’s happy with Vingegaard claiming all 3 GT’s as a leader. And to achieve this you need to be the sole leader

 

[tobydawq]

Also Roglic needs to leave JV, because there’s no way that he’s happy with Vingegaard claiming all 3 GT’s as a leader. And to achieve this you need to be the sole leader

True. He can go to Ineos and try convincing Remco to focus on classics.

 

[Ripper]

Jonas is gonna slap everyone with the wet fish next year!

 

[kn0s]

Without Pogacar I actually think he could do the triple with perfect planning. I appreciate that they give us fantastic racing. Imagine a world with only one of them, would look spectacular in the history books, but be a real snooze fest to watch.

 

[RedheadDane]

Jonas is gonna slap everyone with the wet fish next year!

And then he's gonna be suspended for assaulting people.
Probably arrested too.

 

[Ripper]

And then he's gonna be suspended for assaulting people.
Probably arrested too.

Nope. Gonna do it stealth style and so fast no one will know what hit them.

 

[RedheadDane]

Nope. Gonna do it stealth style and so fast no one will know what hit them.

BTW, love that you wrote the wet fish. Like there's some specific wet fish out there.

 

[pman]

I respect what Vingegaard has done in the Tour de France the last years and I don't want to criticize him but the talk of him being able to win the Giro at less than 100% is a little laughable considering how he races. He's a rider that peaks in June/July. He holds the peak for that period. He has not shown an ability to win major races outside of that window unless you count beating Landa by about a minute in the Basque race as a major win. In Paris-Nice, he finished third.

This is beyond that fact that part of what makes Vingegaard such a great rider in the Tour is his ability to have one strong peak in June/July whereas other top riders seem to be favoring multiple peaks throughout the year. What he does in April and May directly correspond to his marvelous peak in July. If he is riding a bike around Italy in May, he isn't doing what he needs to do to peak in July.

The only reason to think Jonas could win the double is if you think he is miles and miles better than everyone else in racing and I think the results simply don't support that. He looks unbeatable in the Tour. But the rest of the year? I just don't see that. Though I am sure the likes of Pog and Remco would love to see him try and win both in the same year.

 

[Pinot's goat]

He has not shown an ability to win major races outside of that window unless you count beating Landa by about a minute in the Basque race as a major win. In Paris-Nice, he finished third.

I don't get why this should be ignored.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

And then he's gonna be suspended for assaulting people.
Probably arrested too.

I don't think Michael Palin was arrested. Not for that at least.

 

[pman]

I don't get why this should be ignored.

Because Landa isn't his competition for a Giro. If your logic is, hey, Jonas is so strong, he can show up at 80% and beat the likes of Thomas, Roglic, Geoghegan Hart and Hindley- I just don't see that in the results.

I think the logic is based on the understandable but faulty idea that if you took Jonas from the last two Tours and took away 10-20 % of his fitness, he'd still beat everyone but Pog, therefore Jonas at 80% should win the Giro. I get the idea but it's faulty logic because it's ignoring what Jonas has to do to get to 100%. If Jonas at a simple 80% could win the Giro, he should be dominating lesser races that Pog isn't in and I just don't see that. He/ his team has clearly figured how to transform into a machine come July, part of that is going for 1 simple peak. I don't see the point in messing with that.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Because Landa isn't his competition for a Giro. If your logic is, hey, Jonas is so strong, he can show up at 80% and beat the likes of Thomas, Roglic, Geoghegan Hart and Hindley- I just don't see that in the results.

I think the logic is based on the understandable but faulty idea that if you took Jonas from the last two Tours and took away 10-20 % of his fitness, he'd still beat everyone but Pog, therefore Jonas at 80% should win the Giro. I get the idea but it's faulty logic because it's ignoring what Jonas has to do to get to 100%. If Jonas at a simple 80% could win the Giro, he should be dominating lesser races that Pog isn't in and I just don't see that. He/ his team has clearly figured how to transform into a machine come July, part of that is going for 1 simple peak. I don't see the point in messing with that.

But this year he has been dominating races that Pogačar hasn't been in. Not that I think he would be be able to win all 3 GTs in a season, but he has at least proved that he can also be very good outside of July.

 

[pman]

But this year he has been dominating races that Pogačar hasn't been in.

Yeah, I guess that's where we disagree. I don't think winning O Gran Camiño and the Tour of Basque Country by just over a minute is dominating non Pog races. Plus, even if Pog sat out Paris-Nice, Jonas would have lost that as well.

I get that he dominated the Dauphine but that was part of his early Tour form.

This is all beyond the point that for him to dominate in July as he has the last two years, he needs to be in the mountains at a training camp focused on a singular goal. Don't get me wrong, from a sporting perspective I'd love to see someone seriously go for the double but I think it's a bad idea, especially for a rider who doesn't have a major track record of multiple peaks throughout the season.

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[Samu Cuenca]

Yeah, I guess that's where we disagree. I don't think winning O Gran Camiño and the Tour of Basque Country by just over a minute is dominating non Pog races. Plus, even if Pog sat out Paris-Nice, Jonas would have lost that as well.

I get that he dominated the Dauphine but that was part of his early Tour form.

This is all beyond the point that for him to dominate in July as he has the last two years, he needs to be in the mountains at a training camp focused on a singular goal. Don't get me wrong, from a sporting perspective I'd love to see someone seriously go for the double but I think it's a bad idea, especially for a rider who doesn't have a major track record of multiple peaks throughout the season.

Having the biggest winning margin in Itzulia since 2002 doesn't count as domination?

Also I'm sure Vingegaard would have won P-N without Pogi there, because Gaudu would not have been able to crack him like Pogi did.