Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Andy schleck]

Maybe it was a minority, but there were absolutely people who saw Vingegaard as a big threat. Especially after Pogacar only just barely beat Vingegaard on PdbF

When i saw what Vingegaard showed on plateau de solaison before the tour de france, i thought that he had a chance to beat pogacar.

 

[Andy schleck]

Mont ventoux was only briefly. There are many reasons why nobody was talking about Vingegaard as a genuine threat before Granon.

The cause of the other two were explained earlier. So you have a sample of 1?

Hautacam by when he was already beat up by Jumbo’s tactics is 17km and pretty sure Pog has done well over plenty of climbs that length. For example Luz Ardiden is 15km and Pog dropped Vingo at the finish.

I am also curious why Vingegaard didn’t respond to Pog’s attack on stage 8 in 2021 when he took over 4 minutes? Lacks courage to take responsibility?

I agree Pog is a bit suspect over 2,000 metres but not on long climbs. More evidence needed.

I didn't said that pogi is weak on long climbs. He is good. Simply, i think Vingegaard is better than him on long climbs.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

When i saw what Vingegaard showed on plateau de solaison before the tour de france, i thought that he had a chance to beat pogacar.

Yeah I remember the talk at the time was, 1) Wow, the Jumbo boys have leveled up and are ready to bang with Pogi for sure, and 2) A lot of speculation that Vingegaard had actually held back for Roglic and was the true #1.

 

[Cookster15]

Why do you feel the need to belittle everything Vingegaard has ever done to make your point about Pogacar being the greatest cyclist that ever lived? In this particular stage, Vingegaard crashed. Also, he had entered the Tour as a domestique and was suddenly the team's GC rider, that takes a different mindset.

Not belittling just trying to rationalise the facts and logic. I notice one or two others have since posted some supporting points of view. Also good that we now admit Pog is good on long climbs but maybe not quite as good as Vingegaard. I accept this.

I think it makes sense that for a few reasons Vingegaard hadn’t been able to show his true potential before that brief moment on Ventoux.

Anyhows bring on the 2023 TdF showdown to settle the argument. I just hope crashes don’t spoil the spectacle.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Not belittling just trying to rationalise the facts and logic. I notice one or two others have since posted some supporting points of view. Also good that we now admit Pog is good on long climbs but maybe not quite as good as Vingegaard. I accept this.

I think it makes sense that for a few reasons Vingegaard hadn’t been able to show his true potential before that brief moment on Ventoux.

Anyhows bring on the 2023 TdF showdown to settle the argument. I just hope crashes don’t spoil the spectacle.

Good post. However, no argument is ever truly settled on the forum

 

[theyoungest]

Not belittling just trying to rationalise the facts and logic. I notice one or two others have since posted some supporting points of view. Also good that we now admit Pog is good on long climbs but maybe not quite as good as Vingegaard. I accept this.

I think it makes sense that for a few reasons Vingegaard hadn’t been able to show his true potential before that brief moment on Ventoux.

Anyhows bring on the 2023 TdF showdown to settle the argument. I just hope crashes don’t spoil the spectacle.

The potential was always there. The main thing for Vingegaard has been his inability to deal with pressure, any kind of pressure. He lost the lead in the Tour of Poland, of all places, because he simply couldn't handle it. That's the main switch he's made, although even in last year's Tour you could see the nerves sometimes, most notably in the cobbles stage where he totally messed up. Even in this week's race in Spain you could see him looking back all the time, as if he almost can't believe he's dropping people.

But if you have the time, look up the Angliru stage in the 2020 Vuelta. He completely destroyed the peloton there, including his own team leader Roglic. There you could already see that he's made for the long climbs.

 

[Blobs]

Mont ventoux was only briefly. There are many reasons why nobody was talking about Vingegaard as a genuine threat before Granon.

Just simply not true. I remember both Emil Axelgaard and Patrick form Lanterne Rouge talking about Vingegaard as a real threat before the race, and saying he would likely drop Pogacar on the longer climbs. Also, his pre-race odds were 4 so an estimated 20% chance of winning the whole thing. That means he was more favored to win last years TdF before the race, than Bayern Munich currently are to win the Champions League, and yet no one would be shocked if that happens. Seems very likely.

The truth is it wasn't that surprising what happened. Vingegaard had dropped Pogacar before, and then he did it again. It was a "fool me once" type situation.

I am also curious why Vingegaard didn’t respond to Pog’s attack on stage 8 in 2021 when he took over 4 minutes? Lacks courage to take responsibility?

Did you see how Vingegaard looked on that stage? Completely banged up from a crash. Vingegaard only lost time to Pog on the day of his crash and the day after. Other than that he matched him completely until the sprints.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

The potential was always there. The main thing for Vingegaard has been his inability to deal with pressure, any kind of pressure. He lost the lead in the Tour of Poland, of all places, because he simply couldn't handle it. That's the main switch he's made, although even in last year's Tour you could see the nerves sometimes, most notably in the cobbles stage where he totally messed up. Even in this week's race in Spain you could see him looking back all the time, as if he almost can't believe he's dropping people.

But if you have the time, look up the Angliru stage in the 2020 Vuelta. He completely destroyed the peloton there, including his own team leader Roglic. There you could already see that he's made for the long climbs.

Vingegaard did great work that day for Roglic, but Roglic was coming off an epic battle and crushing defeat in the Tour so not at top form and he did finish over 3 minutes ahead of Vingegaard. No doubt Vingegaard wasn’t going all out, but this is somewhat misleading.

 

[Big Doopie]

Good post. However, no argument is ever truly settled on the forum

Well…unless I voice my opinion.

 

[Extinction]

Not belittling just trying to rationalise the facts and logic. I notice one or two others have since posted some supporting points of view. Also good that we now admit Pog is good on long climbs but maybe not quite as good as Vingegaard. I accept this.

I think it makes sense that for a few reasons Vingegaard hadn’t been able to show his true potential before that brief moment on Ventoux.

Anyhows bring on the 2023 TdF showdown to settle the argument. I just hope crashes don’t spoil the spectacle.

Given that both appear in fine form at the moment, Paris-Nice should give us some more to go on regarding "the argument," as you put it. The season is fresh and each has won impresively on multiple occasions. Honestly, whilst I expected Pog to come out swinging, as he always starts the first part of the campaign in great shape, I didn't imagine Vingo to be winning like this so early.

I was a bit skeptical that Jonas would mentally withstand the pressure of being Tour champ and having to lead his team over the forseeable future in July in France conceivably against Tadej. But so far, even if it's early, he appears to render unjustified any such questioning doubt.

 

[Extinction]

The potential was always there. The main thing for Vingegaard has been his inability to deal with pressure, any kind of pressure. He lost the lead in the Tour of Poland, of all places, because he simply couldn't handle it. That's the main switch he's made, although even in last year's Tour you could see the nerves sometimes, most notably in the cobbles stage where he totally messed up. Even in this week's race in Spain you could see him looking back all the time, as if he almost can't believe he's dropping people.

But if you have the time, look up the Angliru stage in the 2020 Vuelta. He completely destroyed the peloton there, including his own team leader Roglic. There you could already see that he's made for the long climbs.

To the bolded, he does seem to get stressed more than his talent and strengths should otherwise warrant. He visibly paniced, for example, in the immediate aftermath of his crash during the cobbles stage of the Tour last year. However, he has also answered with crushing performances like on Glandon, Hautacam and even the TT. This is why to me he remains an enigma, whereas with Pog you just know he (almost) always confidently keeps his cool. The perception with Jonas, by contrast, is that the team must keep assuring him that he can destroy the competition in the mountains and beat them in the TT as well. This is why I'm even more curious to see how Paris-Nice plays out.

 

[Nick2413]

Has anyone checked the odds lately? I’m trying to do the math and I just don’t see how Pogacar can win if Jonas doesn’t falter. There would have to be some Granon-esque blowups on Jonas’ part, even if Pog is at his best. He’s losing time in TTs and really only gained bonus seconds last year. Maybe if JV aren’t so dominant, but it seems luck is almost going to be necessary.

 

[Lequack]

There is no way Vinge loses any time, unless UAE actually try to implement a strategy.

 

[SafeBet]

Is he the first rider in history to win every (finished) stage of a stage race but not the point jersey?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Has anyone checked the odds lately? I’m trying to do the math and I just don’t see how Pogacar can win if Jonas doesn’t falter. There would have to be some Granon-esque blowups on Jonas’ part, even if Pog is at his best. He’s losing time in TTs and really only gained bonus seconds last year. Maybe if JV aren’t so dominant, but it seems luck is almost going to be necessary.

I understood this year's route is a lot more hilly classic inspired than last year, with less pure climber's stages. If that's true than it's hard to see Vingegaard as a bigger favourite than Pogacar.

 

[Nick2413]

I understood this year's route is a lot more hilly classic inspired than last year, with less pure climber's stages. If that's true than it's hard to see Vingegaard as a bigger favourite than Pogacar.

That will be refreshing and probably create a lot more uncertainty across the board. I dream of Itzulia 2021 Pog vs Rog type riding. Hopefully no WVA dragging Vingegaard back minutes at a time if he ever falls behind.

 

[Red Rick]

I understood this year's route is a lot more hilly classic inspired than last year, with less pure climber's stages. If that's true than it's hard to see Vingegaard as a bigger favourite than Pogacar.

Mountain stages are more meh overall, but there's not really a stage like the cobbles stage last year.

 

[Nick2413]

Mountain stages are more meh overall, but there's not really a stage like the cobbles stage last year.

Seems a bit more front loaded mountains wise, and a lot of hilly not pure flat days

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations on winning overall at O Gran Camiño.

 

[Red Rick]

Seems a bit more front loaded mountains wise, and a lot of hilly not pure flat days

Yeah if the Pyrenees aren't raced hard it'll feel very lethargic, and they come really early.

Pyrenees should decide the dynamic of the race, if Roglic was going full Tour too I would guess that's where Jumbo already starts rolling tactical games on Pogacar. Now it seems very likely neither will really attack there.

 

[YavorD]

Has anyone checked the odds lately? I’m trying to do the math and I just don’t see how Pogacar can win if Jonas doesn’t falter. There would have to be some Granon-esque blowups on Jonas’ part, even if Pog is at his best. He’s losing time in TTs and really only gained bonus seconds last year. Maybe if JV aren’t so dominant, but it seems luck is almost going to be necessary.

I'm not convinced Jonas will drop Pogacar (at least heavily) on the mountain stages next year. Maybe only on Col de la Loze.
Plus, I wouldn't put his as a clear cut favorite on the TT as well. It's just February still, but I rate their chances evenly at the moment.

If they were racing on the Giro route, I'd put Vingegaard as clear favorite, but not on TdF.

 

[RedheadDane]

I'm not convinced Jonas will drop Pogacar (at least heavily) on the mountain stages next year. Maybe only on Col de la Loze.

It is way too late in the year for you to still think 2023 is "next year".
If you're still hungover from NYE, and confused about the year... you should probably seek help.

 

[YavorD]

It is way too late in the year for you to still think 2023 is "next year".
If you're still hungover from NYE, and confused about the year... you should probably seek help.

Oh... I thought it's still November 2022. Thanks for making check the calendar, I've never been so surprised in my life.
Now I understand why there was some live cycling yesterday...

 

[RedheadDane]

Oh... I thought it's still November 2022. Thanks for making check the calendar, I've never been so surprised in my life.
Now I understand why there was some live cycling yesterday...

TBF, in November 2022, there were probably some people who would have referred to the 2022 TdF as "Last year"...

 

[Andy schleck]

I'm not convinced Jonas will drop Pogacar (at least heavily) on the mountain stages next year. Maybe only on Col de la Loze.
Plus, I wouldn't put his as a clear cut favorite on the TT as well. It's just February still, but I rate their chances evenly at the moment.

If they were racing on the Giro route, I'd put Vingegaard as clear favorite, but not on TdF.

Drop pogacar on col de la loze, could be enough to win the tour.