To the bolded, I don't think Vingo can't be good in classics (Liege and Lombardia, but, why not, MSR too - if he attacks and descends off the Poggio the way he did in this year's Tour TT...), it's just that Jumbo-Visma knows that another route for the Tour or GTs is optimal. Apart from Liege in an odd year, by the way, when has Rog done classics? They won't waste time, because their science has it that it's a waste of time. Now is this good for the tradition of the sport? No, but that doesn't mean Vingo can't do well in classics, but only that he's never tried.
Sorry, haven't read full thread but stopped here.
Since I noticed Vingo on the scene during his first Tour de Pologne participation my impression is, that he certainly CAN win one-day races. Just not when you maybe have two handfuls of the very best one day riders.
So to me it's always been to clarify between 'minor oneday races' (he has a winning chance) and classics, up against the specialists, also having both strength, technique and stamina for one day.
But what I especially have noticed since his bummer in his first TdP is rapidly building on his stamina in stage races. Already in Vuelta '20 my impression was he was the strongest into 3rd week, but impossible to do a valid measurement as he was in pure domestic role. And then LeTour'21 proved my thesis, and since he's just added to his fierce force within this field, ofcourse backed up by calendar planning.
However, my impression is, that if the two primes within GT's, Pogi and Vingo had identical calendar, it will turn out in Vingegaard's favor every time. In addition to having worked on it, his purely physiological data also backs this up with large lung capacity, high (extreme) VO2 max data and everything in that direction, which to that extent helps deep into the 3rd week. This strength is in less favor speaking one day races..
Though it is a tad different this year.
I observe that here at the start of 2023 he has focused a lot on his explosiveness. He will never beat Pogacar in a sprint, but the strength in itself I think is not bad in a one-day race.
I could imagine he would do quite better in a Lombardia this year compared to his previous try.