Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Mayomaniac]

It was a bad beating. He should have been 20" faster, even with too fast a start to the climb. Let's see what tomorrow brings, there's nothing to lose.

That said, the Dauphine isn't the Tour and it's still his first race back after the crash related hiatus.

 

[Red Rick]

That said, the Dauphine isn't the Tour and it's still his first race back after the crash related hiatus.

2014 Nibali equivalent really.

 

[Cookster15]

The thing about Vingegaard that's pretty jarring right now is Visma & Plugge hyped him up

Not the first time Visma & Plugge hyped him up. Listen to them on the race radio on stage 15 of the 2024 Tour before PdB. They were so sure if Vingegaard rode to his FTP that Pogacar couldn't hold his wheel.

I actually like Vingegaard. Its the team that grates and its not just Plugge although he is the most annoying. I wonder if sometimes Jonas privately thinks they would just shut up.

 

[Red Rick]

Not the first time Visma & Plugge hyped him up. Listen to them on the race radio on stage 15 of the 2024 Tour before PdB. They were so sure if Vingegaard rode to his FTP that Pogacar couldn't hold his wheel.

I actually like Vingegaard. Its the team that grates and its not just Plugge although he is the most annoying. I wonder if sometimes Jonas privately thinks they would just shut up.

Basically all teams do thi where they say something like "better than ever" forgetting everyone is doing more every year.

 

[Netserk]

Not the first time Visma & Plugge hyped him up. Listen to them on the race radio on stage 15 of the 2024 Tour before PdB. They were so sure if Vingegaard rode to his FTP that Pogacar couldn't hold his wheel.

This is only in your head.

It's even worse than suggesting a pancake enjoyer must hate waffles.

 

[Cookster15]

Basically all teams do thi where they say something like "better than ever" forgetting everyone is doing more every year.

I am referring to what Visma were saying over the race radio. Something like: Matteo set a hard tempo, then Jonas attacks and Pogacar we know won't be able to follow. It was perceived as arrogance and that is why some fans don't like them.

This is only in your head.

No, its clearly recorded on the race highlights and it was discussed here when it happened.

 

[Netserk]

I am referring to what Visma were saying over the race radio. Something like: Matteo set a hard tempo, then Jonas attacks and Pogacar we know won't be able to follow. It was perceived as arrogance and that is why some fans don't like them.

No, its clearly recorded on the race highlights and it was discussed here when it happened.

An encouragement is what you hope for. It's not the objective belief that they "were so sure of".

Grischa: "But of course still a hard fight to drop Pogačar, eh. We need a big pull of Matteo for the first 20 minutes, and then Jonas you just have to do your TT after that, and we believe he will get in problems, eh."

Cookster: Visma team car said to Vinge on the radio that Pogacar couldn't match the watts in the heat Vingegaard was doing on PdB.

I don't think you summed up the radio message very well. I also fail to see what the alternative should have been to such an encouragement before their attack on the climb.

You distort what was said back then every single time you bring it up.

 

[Cookster15]

An encouragement is what you hope for. It's not the objective belief that they "were so sure of".

You distort what was said back then every single time you bring it up.

Perception not intent. You might not see it but many saw their comments as arrogance. And they were saying similar since the 2022 Tour - something along the lines of , if Jonas rides like this Pogacar can't hold you.

To me its a similar attitude we endured from Brailsford and Sky during notably the 2012 Tour. Back then Sky also talked about setting certain watt tempos. It worked. But no team can be that certain.

 

[Froome]

Just saw ammattipyoraily calculations and did some comparations to his shape in the last dauphines.

He is basically climbing like in the Dauphiné 2023 oroa bit worse. Similar performance to Croix Fer in the Dauphine 2023.

6.7 w/kg, but croix fer had more altitude.

 

[Froome]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667575389365977088

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1667575389365977088?t=KFnFxLIGwXShv3FONa9jDA&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933546955893830073

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1933546955893830073?t=r8UdVfJmPY1gM2ziAlP3CQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933284120085606508

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1933284120085606508?t=KdVac5nTPfUVtI3Q9AiPDQ&s=19

 

[Red Rick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667575389365977088

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1667575389365977088?t=KFnFxLIGwXShv3FONa9jDA&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933546955893830073

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1933546955893830073?t=r8UdVfJmPY1gM2ziAlP3CQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933284120085606508

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1933284120085606508?t=KdVac5nTPfUVtI3Q9AiPDQ&s=19

Model says 6.7 is 20m40s with 100% drafting.

These models are so wack they *** out these insanely high values at high velocities.

Lanterne Rouge meanwhle cheekily normalizing to 60kg while every normal person uses 65 kg.

 

[Froome]

Model says 6.7 is 20m40s with 100% drafting.

These models are so wack they *** out these insanely high values at high velocities.

Lanterne Rouge meanwhle cheekily normalizing to 60kg while every normal person uses 65 kg.

By doing 60 kg, they went in the sensationalism camp, increasing the w/kg.

 

[Breh]

26kph

That's my afterwork ride average

 

[Lorzenz08]

Tomorrow is a big day. If Pogi attacks, even if Vinge loses but stay within 30 secs I think there will still be hope he rides into form by the TdF.
However if he loses by more than 30 secs again I think there will be serious doubts.

 

[Rou]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667575389365977088

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1667575389365977088?t=KFnFxLIGwXShv3FONa9jDA&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933546955893830073

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1933546955893830073?t=r8UdVfJmPY1gM2ziAlP3CQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933284120085606508

View: https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1933284120085606508?t=KdVac5nTPfUVtI3Q9AiPDQ&s=19

Everytime you post incorrect stuff I will be here to fact check you, my friend.
This is the link for the Dauphine stage in 2023: https://watts2win.eu/segment/421
You can check the gaps to the rest but the easiest way to see the difference is the performance index. It was 81 for Vingegaard on that day.
Yesterday Vingegaard's performance index was 90 which is the same level or slightly better than Marie Blanque (his best performance in 2023).
I am sure that Vingegaard will be even stronger in the Tour but claiming that he was weak or average yesterday is just coping.
Vingegaard now is in optimal shape for June.

 

[Berniece]

Everytime you post incorrect stuff I will be here to fact check you, my friend.
This is the link for the Dauphine stage in 2023: https://watts2win.eu/segment/421
You can check the gaps to the rest but the easiest way to see the difference is the performance index. It was 81 for Vingegaard on that day.
Yesterday Vingegaard's performance index was 90 which is the same level or slightly better than Marie Blanque (his best performance in 2023).
I am sure that Vingegaard will be even stronger in the Tour but claiming that he was weak or average yesterday is just coping.
Vingegaard now is in optimal shape for June.

That’s why he barely put time in the others

 

[Red Rick]

I love how people suddenly care about Watts2Win index when it suddenly suits the narrative when it's about the biggest trustmebro stats out there.

 

[Rou]

That’s why he barely put time in the others

What time do you want him to put in the others? It's a 20 min climb with a shallow section in the middle. He still put 30 secs into Matteo and 50 secs into Remco. I said it before so let me repeat:
If Pogacar was not in the race and Jonas doesn't explode following him he easily puts +30 secs in Lipowitz and +60 secs in Remco and we would be calling him the Destroyer.

 

[meat puppet]

What time do you want him to put in the others? It's a 20 min climb with a shallow section in the middle. He still put 30 secs into Matteo and 50 secs into Remco. I said it before so let me repeat:
If Pogacar was not in the race and Jonas doesn't explode following him he easily puts +30 secs in Lipowitz and +60 secs in Remco and we would be calling him the Destroyer.

Yea. And what would the time gaps have been in the sky era in this sort of a climb? A wee bit less me remembers.

 

[Rou]

I love how people suddenly care about Watts2Win index when it suddenly suits the narrative when it's about the biggest trustmebro stats out there.

At least it's consistent and doesn't favor one rider against another. Yates' index on the Finestre was 95 and we all agreed that it's a WTF performance.

 

[TrekCyclist]

I dont think Vingegaard will do something very different until TdF - no matter if he wins today, loses 30s or loses 90s. He will probably prepare as planned, and then see how far it brings him. (unless Visma finds how to close the gap on UAE, related to the other part of the forum).

If Pogacar is like yesterday during the complete 3 weeks - there is not much to do I guess. But Pogacar has had his off days during every TdF so far - somtimes more severe sometimes less.

 

[Red Rick]

At least it's consistent and doesn't favor one rider against another. Yates' index on the Finestre was 95 and we all agreed that it's a WTF performance.

I didn't agree it was a WTF performance at all. It was very strong, but not insane.

The problem with the index is it tries to generalize all sorts of things that are basically impossible to generalize and as a result it itself skews results very heavily.

If you look at Finestre and the performance index it gets, the 9 fastest riders ALL did their personal bests and #10 Bardet did his seasonal best 2 weeks from retirement, which is gigantic red flag that the +5 correction it gets is just wrong.

It's literally a model that says it doesn't account for wind, drafting, etc, so the adjustment is entirely based on altitude, prior fatigue, and the presence of gravel.

 

[Rou]

I didn't agree it was a WTF performance at all. It was very strong, but not insane.

The problem with the index is it tries to generalize all sorts of things that are basically impossible to generalize and as a result it itself skews results very heavily.

If you look at Finestre and the performance index it gets, the 9 fastest riders ALL did their personal bests and #10 Bardet did his seasonal best 2 weeks from retirement, which is gigantic red flag that the +5 correction it gets is just wrong.

It's literally a model that says it doesn't account for wind, drafting, etc, so the adjustment is entirely based on altitude, prior fatigue, and the presence of gravel.

Of course it's not ideal. But no model can be ideal. The Lanterne Rouge guys for example in the past have lied and invented ''headwind'' for certain climbs to increase the values of performances.

 

[Red Rick]

Of course it's not ideal. But no model can be ideal. The Lanterne Rouge guys for example in the past have lied and invented ''headwind'' for certain climbs to increase the values of performances.

LR are just influencers ragebaiting. WattsToWin are unbiased, but they just oversimplify a model mainly I think because they want to automate as much as possible cause try to get about every race in it, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're just datascraping.

And even if the model is as fair as possible, you get all these race specific elements like especially the pacing of a climb which is hugely important, and I'm more positive than ever that the fastest way to do a climb is to just blast off from the bottom like Yates did (not like Carapaz/Del Toro did tbf), and when you start comparing to other climbs that were raced negatively where attacks happen with 3km to go on a 15km climb it's never gonna compare.

I think it's probably still more useful to look at timegaps to other riders in the same stage, and compared that to stages with similar climbs and similar tactics. And if you want to use Watts2Win index, I would much rather look at the difference to other riders rather than the absolute value.

Yesterday would be fairly comparable to climbs like Moncalvillo 2024, Ancares 2024, Verbier 2009, Ax3 Domaines 2013 for example. Ofcourse gaps are bigger, becaues Pogacar is better and more dominant, but those are all 20 minute climbs where they blasted the base and where gaps got very big relative to the stage difficulty as a result.

Pogacar did +12 on Vingegaard (+16 on Lipowitz as the fastest mortal)
Roglic did +8 on Gaudu on Moncalvillo
Roglic did +5 on Landa on Ancares
Froome did +8 to Richie Porte and (+11 to Valverde, the first non domestique)
Contador's Verbier climb doens't have any index for other riders, but presumably it would be veyr similar to Froome's.

 

[Rackham]

I mean for all intents and purposes Vingegaard looked stronger relative to Pog back in the first two weeks of the Tour last year (definitely on a medium mountain stage like stage 11) than he did yesterday. That's after a rushed prep last year whilst he had a technically speaking a 'perfect' prep for the Dauphiné this year.

I don't like it when people throw numbers in everyone's face and use that a reason to spin a particular narrative. The truth of the matter is Vinge really only put 20 seconds or so into Lipowitz yesterday. Now unless Lipowitz has suddenly made huge steps forward since Itzulia, it's just not a great performance from Vinge and yes, he should be doing better right now.