Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Rou]

I didn't agree it was a WTF performance at all. It was very strong, but not insane.

The problem with the index is it tries to generalize all sorts of things that are basically impossible to generalize and as a result it itself skews results very heavily.

If you look at Finestre and the performance index it gets, the 9 fastest riders ALL did their personal bests and #10 Bardet did his seasonal best 2 weeks from retirement, which is gigantic red flag that the +5 correction it gets is just wrong.

It's literally a model that says it doesn't account for wind, drafting, etc, so the adjustment is entirely based on altitude, prior fatigue, and the presence of gravel.

Of course it's not ideal. But no model can be ideal. The Lanterne Rouge guys for example in the past have lied and invented ''headwind'' for certain climbs to increase the values of performances.

 

[Red Rick]

Of course it's not ideal. But no model can be ideal. The Lanterne Rouge guys for example in the past have lied and invented ''headwind'' for certain climbs to increase the values of performances.

LR are just influencers ragebaiting. WattsToWin are unbiased, but they just oversimplify a model mainly I think because they want to automate as much as possible cause try to get about every race in it, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're just datascraping.

And even if the model is as fair as possible, you get all these race specific elements like especially the pacing of a climb which is hugely important, and I'm more positive than ever that the fastest way to do a climb is to just blast off from the bottom like Yates did (not like Carapaz/Del Toro did tbf), and when you start comparing to other climbs that were raced negatively where attacks happen with 3km to go on a 15km climb it's never gonna compare.

I think it's probably still more useful to look at timegaps to other riders in the same stage, and compared that to stages with similar climbs and similar tactics. And if you want to use Watts2Win index, I would much rather look at the difference to other riders rather than the absolute value.

Yesterday would be fairly comparable to climbs like Moncalvillo 2024, Ancares 2024, Verbier 2009, Ax3 Domaines 2013 for example. Ofcourse gaps are bigger, becaues Pogacar is better and more dominant, but those are all 20 minute climbs where they blasted the base and where gaps got very big relative to the stage difficulty as a result.

Pogacar did +12 on Vingegaard (+16 on Lipowitz as the fastest mortal)
Roglic did +8 on Gaudu on Moncalvillo
Roglic did +5 on Landa on Ancares
Froome did +8 to Richie Porte and (+11 to Valverde, the first non domestique)
Contador's Verbier climb doens't have any index for other riders, but presumably it would be veyr similar to Froome's.

 

[Rackham]

I mean for all intents and purposes Vingegaard looked stronger relative to Pog back in the first two weeks of the Tour last year (definitely on a medium mountain stage like stage 11) than he did yesterday. That's after a rushed prep last year whilst he had a technically speaking a 'perfect' prep for the Dauphiné this year.

I don't like it when people throw numbers in everyone's face and use that a reason to spin a particular narrative. The truth of the matter is Vinge really only put 20 seconds or so into Lipowitz yesterday. Now unless Lipowitz has suddenly made huge steps forward since Itzulia, it's just not a great performance from Vinge and yes, he should be doing better right now.

 

[Froome]

I love how people suddenly care about Watts2Win index when it suddenly suits the narrative when it's about the biggest trustmebro stats out there.

They can't even calculate properly the VAM.

They don’t have any credibility.

Chronoswatts.com are calculations from Engineer Frederic Portoleau.

Vingegaard was yesterday in the shape of Dauphiné 2023. Obviously these narrative of trying to look like he was the best ever yesterday is false.

Don’t worry about that, pogacar did a great performance anyways.

 

[fenns]

I mean for all intents and purposes Vingegaard looked stronger relative to Pog back in the first two weeks of the Tour last year (definitely on a medium mountain stage like stage 11) than he did yesterday. That's after a rushed prep last year whilst he had a technically speaking a 'perfect' prep for the Dauphiné this year.

I don't like it when people throw numbers in everyone's face and use that a reason to spin a particular narrative. The truth of the matter is Vinge really only put 20 seconds or so into Lipowitz yesterday. Now unless Lipowitz has suddenly made huge steps forward since Itzulia, it's just not a great performance from Vinge and yes, he should be doing better right now.

Lipowitz put in a great ride - he's a bit of an unknown and IMO a possible for the podium in Paris (if he rides). But relative to Matteo and Remco I thought Jonas put in a very good performance - comparable to his 2023 Dauphine rides.

 

[Red Rick]

They can't even calculate properly the VAM.

They don’t have any credibility.

Chronoswatts.com are calculations from Engineer Frederic Portoleau.

Vingegaard was yesterday in the shape of Dauphiné 2023. Obviously these narrative of trying to look like he was the best ever yesterday is false.

Don’t worry about that, pogacar did a great performance anyways.

I'm pretty convinced watts2win is mostly just data scraping and chugging into an algorithm and that's about it.

They even have the 2 splits from yesterday climb both giving much higher W/kg than the total of the climb.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I'm pretty convinced watts2win is mostly just data scraping and chugging into an algorithm and that's about it.

They even have the 2 splits from yesterday climb both giving much higher W/kg than the total of the climb.

But a part of the last climb wasn't part of either of the KOMs I think. The shallower part. Would make sense then I guess.

 

[Red Rick]

But a part of the last climb wasn't part of either of the KOMs I think. The shallower part. Would make sense then I guess.

Watts2Win had the 2.5k Domancy and then another 5.9k segment after, so it wasn't only the Cat 2 from the Dauphine. In fact, less than 1km was missing, and the climb does not have a descending section in it.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Watts2Win had the 2.5k Domancy and then another 5.9k segment after, so it wasn't only the Cat 2 from the Dauphine. In fact, less than 1km was missing, and the climb does not have a descending section in it.

Yes, checked it out myself again and was just about to edit my post.

 

[Rackham]

Lipowitz put in a great ride - he's a bit of an unknown and IMO a possible for the podium in Paris (if he rides). But relative to Matteo and Remco I thought Jonas put in a very good performance - comparable to his 2023 Dauphine rides.

Everyone is going faster now though. I'm pretty sure using 2023 as a standard, a lot of riders are beating their numbers from back then quite comfortably. The top riders go faster year after year, basically.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Everyone is going faster now though. I'm pretty sure using 2023 as a standard, a lot of riders are beating their numbers from back then quite comfortably. The top riders go faster year after year, basically.

With 2023 level one is not competing for the Tour victory. Last year we've seen some insane numbers and it doesn't look like they are slower this year.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Could it be age related issues? It pops up frequently.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Could it be age related issues? It pops up frequently.

Age related in the sense he's reached his full potential, either in absolute terms or just compared to the competition, it's certainly possible.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Age related in the sense he's reached his full potential, either in absolute terms or just compared to the competition, it's certainly possible.

Happens to the best. Remco too?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Happens to the best. Remco too?

I don't know. Maybe he can still improve, but he may have to move to a different team to max out.

 

[HappyCycling]

One month exactly until the high mountains. He needs to find another gear or he's cooked. Team or no team.

 

[Filippo_3467]

I think looking on how Pogi road that climb it's obvoius that he could have put another minute or more into Jonas if he would have tried hard.

I think if they look at it honestly Jonas shouldn't follow in the Tour when Pogi attacks in the high mountains. Sit behind his strong team so that they can secure the 2nd place. There's just no reason for trying and risk cracking. The Tour will be a re-run of the Giro 24 without a crash.

 

[fenns]

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

 

[Muren]

Pogi still way ahead. But clearly better from Vinge today.

Step in the right direction, but you feel he has to improve way more to be able to challenge Pog in the tour.

 

[Rackham]

I think the gap versus Pog is exactly the same as it was last summer.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I think looking on how Pogi road that climb it's obvoius that he could have put another minute or more into Jonas if he would have tried hard.

I think if they look at it honestly Jonas shouldn't follow in the Tour when Pogi attacks in the high mountains. Sit behind his strong team so that they can secure the 2nd place. There's just no reason for trying and risk cracking. The Tour will be a re-run of the Giro 24 without a crash.

He could also go stage hunting instead like Remco in the 2023 Vuelta. He gains nothing from finishing second again.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogi still way ahead. But clearly better from Vinge today.

Step in the right direction, but you feel he has to improve way more to be able to challenge Pog in the tour.

Hautacam is like 4 weeks away

 

[Krzysztof_O]

After yesterday I kinda expected he would be better today and it happened. The gaps to humans behind him were quite big and the gap ahead much smaller. Pogacar was better but still a very impressive performance by Vingo.

 

[Rou]

Anyone here still suggesting that Jonas is on his 2023 Dauphine level? He demolished the field (bar the Slovenian) on a not so steep climb. He is much stronger than 2023.

 

[Red Rick]

Anyone here still suggesting that Jonas is on his 2023 Dauphine level? He demolished the field (bar the Slovenian) on a not so steep climb. He is much stronger than 2023.

More like yesterday was a bad performance to the form he's actually in, and today was a good one.