Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[SHAD0W93]

There is one thing who can change. Continue to improve and push more watts in the Tour.

He improved between Combloux and Valmenier.

He didn't raced since March. He lacked racing. There is still 1 month before the decisive stages.

Improved? Vingegaard looked like he was about to pass out at the finish giving everything he had. He never had Pogacar under control and looks worse than last year at following Pogacar considering last year he was never on Pog’s wheel and went the longways around, now he still can’t follow even though he’s on the wheel. Vingegaard has a lot of ground to make up but the positive is how much he was able to recover from last year and his TT shape this year.

 

[Bolder]

Improved? Vingegaard looked like he was about to pass out at the finish giving everything he had. He never had Pogacar under control and looks worse than last year at following Pogacar considering last year he was never on Pog’s wheel and went the longways around, now he still can’t follow even though he’s on the wheel. Vingegaard has a lot of ground to make up but the positive is how much he was able to recover from last year and his TT shape this year.

He looks about the same relative to the tour last year, and unless something changes he'll come second again by about the same margin. The climb to Combloux was a shocker, no two ways about it, especially after the tt.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I wouldn't say lack of racing hurt him much. Vingegaard had all the time in the world to simulate various situations in training, including hard miles and a bloc ascents. He had 2 months of break before Dauphine 2023 and still was flying. Nowadays cyclists don't need much racing to be in form, they can even be very strong at the very beginning of the season (after months without racing).

Despite long and high-quality training time Vingegaard simply lacks some w/kg vs Pogacar and that's his biggest problem. He needs to close the gap but Pogacar will not stand still until the Tour either. That's why Pogacar is #1 favourite.

Even his team said Vingegaard doesn't need to race a lot and how he can be really good with obly altitude training. Every indicator points to a boring Tour.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Yeah, that horrible strategy that won them the Tour twice with a rider who now can't even get close to the guy he beat...

Which is a problem, the Tour is yet to come but surely some changes has to happen if Jonas can't get it done.

they should definitely get rid of the guy who planned that. Do you want him to say in the radio: you suck Jonas, Pogi is way better than you, you might as well give up.

What I am saying is that he is misleading Jonas. A DS miscalculating like that is nicht gut.

If by getting a new coach you mean a new trainer, I think his current one (Tim Heemskerk) is probably one of the best trainers in cycling right now. He also trains Simon Yates and Matteo Jorgenson... pretty decent results out of those guys. As well as out of Vingegaard, of course.

If Heemskerk can't adapt to the current situation and Jonas loses again, what good is he for? When Tadej lost consecutive Tours he dropped his previous coach and got a new one.

 

[Netserk]

I will never understand when someone says a longer mountain stage will benefit Vingegaard instead of Pogacar. Seriously, Pogacar is the best classics rider and those races are known for being "marathons".

Evenepoel is also a better classics rider than Vingegaard, but when it comes to climbing he prefers less total elevation.

 

[Pozzovivo]

If in red and white, it should either resemble the sponsor logo more or be just like the normal helmet with a change of colours. The white cross is neither and makes him look like a fake national champion.

Harsh words . Red and white are nice colors imo and it makes him easy to identify in the bunch. The cross is kinda cool also and fits with the Danish flag. 9/10 for me, and way better than the ugly red bull helmets that some fake champions of the bunch ride.

 

[Netserk]

Harsh words . Red and white are nice colors imo and it makes him easy to identify in the bunch. The cross is kinda cool also and fits with the Danish flag. 9/10 for me, and way better than the ugly red bull helmets that some fake champions of the bunch ride.

It does indeed fit with the flag, and it shouldn't. It should fit with Bygma instead.

 

[Pozzovivo]

It does indeed fit with the flag, and it shouldn't. It should fit with Bygma instead.

Demanding logical coherence in sponsorship design of cycling apparel is a tough line to hold.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

The TT helmet is already as big as a house, so it would fit well if it were also shaped like one.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I will never understand when someone says a longer mountain stage will benefit Vingegaard instead of Pogacar. Seriously, Pogacar is the best classics rider and those races are known for being "marathons".

You are absolutely right, Pogi learned his lesson in 2023 and is strong here too, now.
But related to Jonas and as I see it, 3rd week stuff and marathon mountain stages is his only weapon, taking into account of Pogi's vivid activity all around the calendar it could be his only (small) weak spot in his shield. But with max 170k 3rd week mountain stages and last 130k Pogi could well be saved here - unless Visma manages to bury UAE with agressive tactics, using their lieutenants massively - but admit I have hard times to see that happen.

 

[theyoungest]

I think Tim Heemskerk is the coach, but Heijboer is the main coach.

Mathieu Heijboer is head of coaching, but Tim Heemskerk is Vingegaard's actual coach. Simon Yates specifically asked to be coached by him as well when he joined Visma... and the result seems to be pretty satisfactory.

You are absolutely right, Pogi learned his lesson in 2023 and is strong here too, now.
But related to Jonas and as I see it, 3rd week stuff and marathon mountain stages is his only weapon, taking into account of Pogi's vivid activity all around the calendar it could be his only (small) weak spot in his shield. But with max 170k 3rd week mountain stages and last 130k Pogi could well be saved here - unless Visma manages to bury UAE with agressive tactics, using their lieutenants massively - but admit I have hard times to see that happen.

In 2023 it didn't look like their tactic was working either, in fact for the first two weeks of the Tour people were ridiculing them for sticking to it, making every stage hard and in the end Pogi simply sprinting away from Vingegaard.... but then he collapsed completely in the final week and they were vindicated.

But Pogi's new coach knows what he's doing, he knows the endurance and the recovery was Pogi's weakness and they've trained on that. I don't think they can crack him using that tactic anymore.

Maybe a slight glimmer of hope for Vingegaard could be that he did improve throughout this Dauphiné. He already looked a lot better on Saturday than on Friday... and I don't mean that he got closer in terms of the time gap, which he did, but he just looked more like he found his rhythm, less forced, not suffering as much. But if Vingo looked more at ease, Pogi looked like he was going grocery shopping, so yeah... not sure they can take a lot of confidence from that.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I will never understand when someone says a longer mountain stage will benefit Vingegaard instead of Pogacar. Seriously, Pogacar is the best classics rider and those races are known for being "marathons".

Nah, this is not comparable, different things.

 

[theyoungest]

I will never understand when someone says a longer mountain stage will benefit Vingegaard instead of Pogacar. Seriously, Pogacar is the best classics rider and those races are known for being "marathons".

Vingegaard won two Tours based on his endurance and better recovery. That you don't understand this shows you don't understand how Visma rode for two Tours in a row trying to break Pogi and eventually succeeding. There's no comparison to a classics race, Evenepoel will beat Vingegaard in a Monument as well.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard won two Tours based on his endurance and better recovery. That you don't understand this shows you don't understand how Visma rode for two Tours in a row trying to break Pogi and eventually succeeding. There's no comparison to a classics race, Evenepoel will beat Vingegaard in a Monument as well.

No, he won the Tour 2022 because he was a tiny bit better than Pogacar in the mountains and took full advantage of his team strenght in Galibier. It was stage 11, that has nothing to do with recovery or endurance. Even in Hautacam, he gained more than a minute because he was saving energy behind Pogacar, taking advantage of drafting.

In 2023, it's obvious Pogacar underperformed due to bad preparation (just like Jonas last year) and he lost the Tour in the TT where there isn't any endurance involved (compared to road stages).

Vingegaard won the Tour because he was the best climber in 2022 and in 2023, because Pogacar wasn't at his best in a lot of stages (he lost one minute in stage 5 for example).

The problem for Vingegaard is that he is no longer the best climber or he isn't at the same level as Pogacar.

I'm pretty sure Hautacam will be the end of the Tour.

 

[Froome]

I wouldn't say lack of racing hurt him much. Vingegaard had all the time in the world to simulate various situations in training, including hard miles and a bloc ascents. He had 2 months of break before Dauphine 2023 and still was flying. Nowadays cyclists don't need much racing to be in form, they can even be very strong at the very beginning of the season (after months without racing).

Despite long and high-quality training time Vingegaard simply lacks some w/kg vs Pogacar and that's his biggest problem. He needs to close the gap but Pogacar will not stand still until the Tour either. That's why Pogacar is #1 favourite.

Like Van der poel said, you can't replicate in training what you do in intensive racing, that's why Vingegaard already improved a lot the day after combloux.

My point is, a lot of things happened to Vingegaard since April 2024 who prevented to continue his evolution. That's why i think he can still improve more than Pogacar in the next month. Pogacar will improve a bit more until the Tour, but he didn't had any trouble since last year, so he could do a evolution/ being in better shape than Vingegaard, because he didn't came from a more deep place like Vingegaard.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Like Van der poel said, you can't replicate in training what you do in intensive racing, that's why Vingegaard already improved a lot the day after combloux.

My point is, a lot of things happened to Vingegaard since April 2024 who prevented to continue his evolution. That's why i think he can still improve more than Pogacar in the next month. Pogacar will improve a bit more until the Tour, but he didn't had any trouble since last year, so he could do a evolution/ being in better shape than Vingegaard, because he didn't came from a more deep place like Vingegaard.

You can replicate a lot and that's why riders can be very strong after 2 (or more) months without racing (Vingo showed it in the past, probably MVP needs racing more than others). Vingegaard had a lot of time for high-quality training but his performances weren't consistent with what Visma said before the race.

Friday vs Saturday performances can have other explanations: the latter stage fit him better, Pogacar eased up at the end, Vingo himself had a bit worse day on Friday (for other reasons, this is stage racing, your form can fluctuate). To sum up: Vingo has a lot of work to do to pass Pogacar in w/kg (being equal may not be enough due to less explosivity) plus Pogacar will improve as well (if he doesn't then UAE probably made some mistake). I actually rated Vingo's chances higher before the Dauphine than now. Obviously I'm not saying he won't win the Tour, who knows, this is sport and he's a monster climber.

 

[YavorD]

Like Van der poel said, you can't replicate in training what you do in intensive racing, that's why Vingegaard already improved a lot the day after combloux.

To be honest the best Vingegaard looked was in stage 1 and probably the TT, so I don't really believe in your theory that he improved on stage 7 "because of more racing".

Now, Vingegaard may be further away from his peak than Pogacar and could improve more during the Tour, but Vingegaard is usually very sharp from the very first days of racing and what we saw in Dauphiné was a bit worrying.

 

[Fos]

You can replicate a lot and that's why riders can be very strong after 2 (or more) months without racing (Vingo showed it in the past, probably MVP needs racing more than others). Vingegaard had a lot of time for high-quality training but his performances weren't consistent with what Visma said before the race.

Friday vs Saturday performances can have other explanations: the latter stage fit him better, Pogacar eased up at the end, Vingo himself had a bit worse day on Friday (for other reasons, this is stage racing, your form can fluctuate). To sum up: Vingo has a lot of work to do to pass Pogacar in w/kg (being equal may not be enough due to less explosivity) plus Pogacar will improve as well (if he doesn't then UAE probably made some mistake). I actually rated Vingo's chances higher before the Dauphine than now. Obviously I'm not saying he won't win the Tour, who knows, this is sport and he's a monster climber.

And maybe racing is important towards classics while stage races are raced more like they do in training camp.

 

[Froome]

To be honest the best Vingegaard looked was in stage 1 and probably the TT, so I don't really believe in your theory that he improved on stage 7 "because of more racing".

Now, Vingegaard may be further away from his peak than Pogacar and could improve more during the Tour, but Vingegaard is usually very sharp from the very first days of racing and what we saw in Dauphiné was a bit worrying.

What happened in the ITT can be an evidence of the lack of racing.

The ITT was a short fresh effort, so the lack of racing didn't impacted that much Vingegaard on that day.

In the first mountain stage, he missed some freshness in the end, due to the lack of racing.

He looked better in the next day. I am not doing comparations with pogacar, only comparing Vingegaard from the day before to the Vingegaard of valmonier, and i think he did a better performance.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

What happened in the ITT can be an evidence of the lack of racing.

The ITT was a short fresh effort, so the lack of racing didn't impacted that much Vingegaard on that day.

In the first mountain stage, he missed some freshness in the end, due to the lack of racing.

He looked better in the next day. I am not doing comparations with pogacar, only comparing Vingegaard from the day before to the Vingegaard of valmonier, and i think he did a better performance.

I admire your optimism on his behalf, but I also fear you could be setting yourself up for a bigger disappointment than necessary.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I admire your optimism on his behalf, but I also fear you could be setting yourself up for a bigger disappointment than necessary.

Wishful thinking. We all have this. Unfortunately for him, he said he would leave the forum if Pogacar won then TdF and from what I saw in the Dauphiné, Vingegaard will have a hard time to compete with Pogacar.
However, Vingegaard is a beast too so let's see if he can find another gear.
Pogacar is the type of rider that can't be underestimated though.

 

[Froome]

Wishful tinking. We all have this. Unfortunately for him, he said he would leave the forum if Pogacar won then TdF and from what I saw in the Dauphiné, Vingegaard will have a hard time to compete with Pogacar.
However, Vingegaard is a beast too so let's see if he can find another gear.
Pogacar is the type of rider that can't be underestimated though.

Like i said before the end of the Giro, Visma will win the three Grand Tours this year, but this time the Tour will be a close call like a gap 1 min and half/ 2 min, not like in the last years.

I stand by what i said, but remember the conditions, "no bad luck or crashes".

 

[P4rthen0n]

If Heemskerk can't adapt to the current situation and Jonas loses again, what good is he for? When Tadej lost consecutive Tours he dropped his previous coach and got a new one.

Pogacar had a massive jump in performance in 2024, at 25 years of age;

Vingegaard has been improving his numbers every single year, but Vingegaard is 28 already.
If we have to assume, we can confidently assume that his gains year-on-year will become increasingly diminished. So, even if he can improve again this year as much as he improved in the last 2 years combined, that still won't be enough to match Pogacar's 2024.

So, you must account for the possibility that the 2024 version of Pogacar (likely his 2025 version as well) is just better and stronger than Vingegaard could ever be.
If that's the case, there's no amount of coach changes that is ever going to be enough.
A silver medal in the Tour might be his ceiling, no matter what his coach his.

 

[Berniece]

I stand by what i said, but remember the conditions, "no bad luck or crashes".

If a crash happens in front of him and the peloton splits and they lose a minute, that’s bad luck right?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Like i said before the end of the Giro, Visma will win the three Grand Tours this year, but this time the Tour will be a close call like a gap 1 min and half/ 2 min, not like in the last years.

I stand by what i said, but remember the conditions, "no bad luck or crashes".

Yes, you said that.