Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[YavorD]

I am not worried. Vingegaard will win the Tour, 100% sure, but with a less gap than 2023, because pogacar will not fade in any stage.

PDB 2024 is the biggest reason who will explain why Vingegaard will win this year, plus the perfomance 2025 in ITTs.

You were 100% sure that Vingegaard will destroy Pogacar in week 3 if he's within 2 minutes before the mountains as well, no?

 

[Berniece]

It will happen this Tour, Pogacar will put 40-60" on Jonas and Remco/Roglic will be 2'30" behind.

When? I mean on which stage(s)?

 

[Peyroteo94]

When? I mean on which stage(s)?

Stages 16 and 18

 

[Berniece]

Stages 16 and 18

I can only see it happening on stage 18 if they drop him before Col de la Loze, and I don't see it happening on stage 16. In case of 16 there are no mountains before AND a rest day the day before. I could be wrong of course, but I doubt there will be a stage where Evenepoel loses 2m30s to Pogacar.

 

[fenns]

You are taking conclusions from dauphiné.

What happens in the Dauphine don't translate to the Tour, especially in this case due to circumstances who happened in the last months.

A rider who wins the Dauphine by a minute or more nearly always wins the Tour. Some exceptions Wiggins 2011 (crash), Greg Lemond (main rivals weren't in the Dauphine)

But of course Pogi only win by 59 secs

 

[hayneplane]

Contador didn't have as strong rival as Vingegaard has though. BTW Vingegaard would win the Tour in his Dauphine shape actually...if not for Pogacar. I don't doubt he'll improve noticeably until the Tour but the big question is if it will be enough to leapfrog Pogacar. Visma's biggest hope should be that Pogacar peaked too early and won't improve anymore. Otherwise it will be hard for them to win.

They can hope for that but if they believe that then they need to fire the entire team management because it was blatantly clear that Pogacar won the Dauphine without ever needing to show his full mid June form.

He could lose the race but I reckon there is less than one percent chance that he peaked too early.

 

[hayneplane]

I can only see it happening on stage 18 if they drop him before Col de la Loze, and I don't see it happening on stage 16. In case of 16 there are no mountains before AND a rest day the day before. I could be wrong of course, but I doubt there will be a stage where Evenepoel loses 2m30s to Pogacar.

I would not put money on it but if he was to have a jour sans on Stage 18 he could even be dropped from the Maillot Jaune group on the penultimate climb and drop 5+ minutes given how little mountain support he has from his team.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Even Jonas knows he or Pogacar would win every mountain stage with a 2 minutes gap without the other.

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If Pogi is feeling a bit cocky lately, Jonas is out right smug, Tour will humble them.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I can only see it happening on stage 18 if they drop him before Col de la Loze, and I don't see it happening on stage 16. In case of 16 there are no mountains before AND a rest day the day before. I could be wrong of course, but I doubt there will be a stage where Evenepoel loses 2m30s to Pogacar.

A rest day is very tough for riders. So Mont Ventoux will be a total carnage. Almost a Pierre Saint Martin type of stage.

 

[Froome]

I know you are 100%. I'm just trying to change your opinion before it's too late (your place in this forum is on the line).
What do you mean by PdB being the biggest reason?

I am going to repeat again.

Visma will win the three GTs this year.

Vingegaard will win the Tour and the Vuelta, and i can also say that i leave this forum if Vingegaard doesn't win the Vuelta, not just the Tour, if there's no crashes.

PDB is the biggest reason because his best perfomance, was just 10 watts slower than Pogacar in a 40 min effort, after pneumotorax, collapsed lung, multiple broken vertebras, broken collarbone and way way less muscle mass. Do you saw how deformed his legs were last year? He didn't had a lot of muscle mass in the legs and he still did those perfomance. It is absolutely impossible to be the best ever you could be with the body in those conditions. That's why i am super confident in what he will do, plus the fact the final climbs will be all above 40 min.

He is also much better in ITTs this year.

The Dauphiné doesn't translate necessarily to the Tour, and the improvements between the dauphine and the Tour, depends a lot of where you came from, compared to the last months (concussion), who prevented him from racing.

The lack of race in the legs makes difference (not a problem for the Tour). You can see he was the guy who improved most between Combloux and Valmorel and the gap was already reduced( even if the gap wasn't going to he 15, but something like 35 s), when Valmorel was two times long than Combloux. That's just a small detail.

 

[Gratemans]

I am going to repeat again.

Visma will win the three GTs this year.

Vingegaard will win the Tour and the Vuelta, and i can also say that i leave this forum if Vingegaard doesn't win the Vuelta, not just the Tour, if there's no crashes.

PDB is the biggest reason because his best perfomance, was just 10 watts slower than Pogacar in a 40 min effort, after pneumotorax, collapsed lung, multiple broken vertebras, broken collarbone and way way less muscle mass. Do you saw how deformed his legs were last year? He didn't had a lot of muscle mass in the legs and he still did those perfomance. It is absolutely impossible to be the best ever you could be with the body in those conditions. That's why i am super confident in what he will do, plus the fact the final climbs will be all above 40 min.

He is also much better in ITTs this year.

The Dauphiné doesn't translate necessarily to the Tour, and the improvements between the dauphine and the Tour, depends a lot of where you came from, compared to the last months (concussion), who prevented him from racing.

The lack of race in the legs makes difference (not a problem for the Tour). You can see he was the guy who improved most between Combloux and Valmorel and the gap was already reduced( even if the gap wasn't going to he 15, but something like 35 s), when Valmorel was two times long than Combloux. That's just a small detail.

I mean, although you express yourself in a much more civil and intelligable manner, you do realise you're actually kinda beginning to sound like Mou, right? I feel like both of you are painting this idealastic picture in your minds of what you want to happen, and then trying to convince the rest of the world that that's exactly what's going to happen.

 

[Fos]

I am going to repeat again.

Visma will win the three GTs this year.

Vingegaard will win the Tour and the Vuelta, and i can also say that i leave this forum if Vingegaard doesn't win the Vuelta, not just the Tour, if there's no crashes.

PDB is the biggest reason because his best perfomance, was just 10 watts slower than Pogacar in a 40 min effort, after pneumotorax, collapsed lung, multiple broken vertebras, broken collarbone and way way less muscle mass. Do you saw how deformed his legs were last year? He didn't had a lot of muscle mass in the legs and he still did those perfomance. It is absolutely impossible to be the best ever you could be with the body in those conditions. That's why i am super confident in what he will do, plus the fact the final climbs will be all above 40 min.

He is also much better in ITTs this year.

The Dauphiné doesn't translate necessarily to the Tour, and the improvements between the dauphine and the Tour, depends a lot of where you came from, compared to the last months (concussion), who prevented him from racing.

The lack of race in the legs makes difference (not a problem for the Tour). You can see he was the guy who improved most between Combloux and Valmorel and the gap was already reduced( even if the gap wasn't going to he 15, but something like 35 s), when Valmorel was two times long than Combloux. That's just a small detail.

If Stephen Cras arrived in June 2024 practically at his level, after being the worst off in the fall in Itzulia... it seems to me that the only thing Jonas lacked was time to gain more resistance for 21 days, but not peak form.

And his main rival does not have de Giro in his legs now (good Tour preparation but far from ideal).

 

[Froome]

I mean, although you express yourself in a much more civil and intelligable manner, you do realise you're actually kinda beginning to sound like Mou, right? I feel like both of you are painting this idealastic picture in your minds of what you want to happen, and then trying to convince the rest of the world that that's exactly what's going to happen.

It will be the last time i will talk about this, since it starts to get annoying for everybody saying always the same thing.

I don't want to convince anyone, i really don't care, just my point of view.

 

[James M]

If Stephen Cras arrived in June 2024 practically at his level, after being the worst off in the fall in Itzulia... it seems to me that the only thing Jonas lacked was time to gain more resistance for 21 days, but not peak form.

And his main rival does not have de Giro in his legs now (good Tour preparation but far from ideal).

Exactly this, its a glass half full viewpoint pushed by 1-3 ppl wanting something to be true oppose to it being the reality. Smart man I wonder who have said this for a year. A few people here are just constantly assuming stuff based on what they want and let the emotions get the better of em oppose to a more realistic and more objective approach based on either number and not glass half empty scenarios.

Theres also several other biological reasons which suggest he struggle to push as much relative to others which have been highlighted and should come to no surprise to anyone at this point. The numbers never lie.

 

[James M]

If this were 2022, it make for a compelling debate grounded in realistic scenarios, and I would’ve been intrigued. But it’s not. At this point, it’s impossible to have a meaningful discussion about this without ignoring all the factual stuff and instead relying solely on wishful thinking and hope which, frankly, I don’t find interesting cause its not realistic.

This is by no means disrespectful to Vingegaard, who is by far the second-best GT rider in the world, in fact, at an incredibly high level. But that alone doesn’t mean he’s on Pogis level or even close, because he simply isn’t at all. Jonas is in a league of his own ahead of everyone else besides Pogacar in terms of GT so, even though Pog evolved to another galaxy. Cycling and GT alot can happen so he def got all to play for.

 

[Maxss]

I am going to repeat again.

Visma will win the three GTs this year.

Vingegaard will win the Tour and the Vuelta, and i can also say that i leave this forum if Vingegaard doesn't win the Vuelta, not just the Tour, if there's no crashes.

PDB is the biggest reason because his best perfomance, was just 10 watts slower than Pogacar in a 40 min effort, after pneumotorax, collapsed lung, multiple broken vertebras, broken collarbone and way way less muscle mass. Do you saw how deformed his legs were last year? He didn't had a lot of muscle mass in the legs and he still did those perfomance. It is absolutely impossible to be the best ever you could be with the body in those conditions. That's why i am super confident in what he will do, plus the fact the final climbs will be all above 40 min.

He is also much better in ITTs this year.

The Dauphiné doesn't translate necessarily to the Tour, and the improvements between the dauphine and the Tour, depends a lot of where you came from, compared to the last months (concussion), who prevented him from racing.

The lack of race in the legs makes difference (not a problem for the Tour). You can see he was the guy who improved most between Combloux and Valmorel and the gap was already reduced( even if the gap wasn't going to he 15, but something like 35 s), when Valmorel was two times long than Combloux. That's just a small detail.

Realistically, hom much time do you see Jonas losing before stage 18 (I think we can all agree that this combination of stages 18&19 is where the biggest differences could be made)? In my book, is should be around 1:30-2:00, but it depends on many variables so very difficult to predict.

 

[YavorD]

Realistically, hom much time do you see Jonas losing before stage 18 (I think we can all agree that this combination of stages 18&19 is where the biggest differences could be made)? In my book, is should be around 1:30-2:00, but it depends on many variables so very difficult to predict.

If Vingegaard cedes 1-1.30 minutes in the Pyrenees (assuming he is within 30 seconds after stage 11), it would clearly indicate to me he is weaker and I think it would be very hard for him to beat Pogacar.

Now if he loses most of this time in week one (because of various reasons) but doesn't drop any time in the Pyrenees, I wouldn't exclude the possibility of him winning the Tour.


In a nutshell, whoever is stronger in the Pyrenees (assuming he drops the other), will win the Tour IMO. I think Loze is kinda overrated as a potential for big gaps.

 

[Froome]

Realistically, hom much time do you see Jonas losing before stage 18 (I think we can all agree that this combination of stages 18&19 is where the biggest differences could be made)? In my book, is should be around 1:30-2:00, but it depends on many variables so very difficult to predict.

On that case, he already lost the Tour, because he is not climbing better than pogacar.

 

[Red Rick]

There's literally a gold standard test in the MTT

 

[Maxss]

On that case, he already lost the Tour, because he is not climbing better than pogacar.

So what's the scenario for a Jonas win in your opinion?

 

[theyoungest]

If this were 2022, it make for a compelling debate grounded in realistic scenarios, and I would’ve been intrigued. But it’s not. At this point, it’s impossible to have a meaningful discussion about this without ignoring all the factual stuff and instead relying solely on wishful thinking and hope which, frankly, I don’t find interesting cause its not realistic.

This is by no means disrespectful to Vingegaard, who is by far the second-best GT rider in the world, in fact, at an incredibly high level. But that alone doesn’t mean he’s on Pogis level or even close, because he simply isn’t at all. Jonas is in a league of his own ahead of everyone else besides Pogacar in terms of GT so, even though Pog evolved to another galaxy. Cycling and GT alot can happen so he def got all to play for.

Yeah, well, all of this was also being said back in 2022... it just goes to show, you never know. I personally don't believe Vingegaard can win the Tour this year, but not really because Pogacar is amazing (although he is). It's just that Vingegaard still doesn't look that amazing on the climbs.

The only possible hope we can have of having a somewhat competitive Tour is the fact that Vingo can improve a lot in a short time, he's done it before. He was very, very average in the Dauphiné 2021 (coming back from injury) and then finished runner up in the Tour. I just don't see it happening. The momentum doesn't seem to be on his side.

 

[Rob5091]

The only way Vingegaard wins the Tour is if Pogacar has another bad TT and blows himself up trying to win.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

There is a joint statement from both moderators in the moderation thread. This is one of a number of threads in which it might be worth drawing people's attention to it.

 

[Froome]

So what's the scenario for a Jonas win in your opinion?

Visma going hard in all of the mountain stages.
Vingegaard pushing more watts than last year.

ITT
Ventoux and La loze, i think will be where he will make the difference in the mountains.