Teams & Riders Jonas Vingegaard thread: Love in Iberia

[Kedjan]

If Vingo really felt that well and didn't attack it means that he lacked confidence to test Pogacar. He was afraid of a counterattack. Obviously he'll have to attack at some point anyway, the GC situation is forcing him to. Good for Visma there are plenty of opportunities left (5 HC MTFs is an anomaly).

Almost feels like he is trying to build confidence step by step. "Now I have followed two attacks by Pog! Wow, shape must really be quite good. Maybe I even can try attacking soon?". I sort of proves he might not have been that confident going in to the tour. Dauphine probably shook him a bit.

 

[Berniece]

Even if Vingegaard is feeling fantastic, why would you attack and play your cards at that moment? To gain what, 10s? Do it on a longer climb, so that the mental impact is bigger too, so Pogacar might lose more time.

 

[Kedjan]

So what do we think of Vinge ahead of the Pyrenees? Can he challenge Pog in the high mountains? He was clearly a level below Pog in the mountains in Dauphine even if he improved a bit after the first mountain stage.

I think it's fair to say his shape has improved to the tour. But who knows, maybe Pog's shape has also improved?

That he has been able to follow two really hard attacks by Pog is a good sign. It's even more than I expected given that Pog's attacks have been absolutely brutal last couple of years. For a 59kg Vinge to follow them is really impressive I think. But if it translates into riding as well as Pog on the longer climbs is not certain, even if it indicates he will be stronger on the longer climbs than in Dauphine.

That he is more explosive than ever is crucial because it makes it more possible to follow Pog's initial burst when he attacks in the mountains and that will be important. If Pog is away it will be hard to catch him. If he can follow Pog, Pog might get frustrated and overextend. In Dauphine Pog had a strong leadout before he attacked and then Vinge could follow. Pog's two attacks in the tour so far hasn't being set up like in Dauphine. Visma will be worried about a strong leadout for Pog in the coming mountain stages. Question is they can prevent it from happening.

But it's not enough to just be able to follow Pog, he must somewhere even drop him. Question is if he has the ability to do that? Pog doesn't seem to have any weaknesses anymore. Earlier we thought that a hard tour would benefit Vinge over Pog, but now that seems questionable. Visma however seem to believe it's true, and they wouldn't believe it without some reasons would they? Do they know something we don't? Do they think a hard spring campaign for Pog can have an affect the last week? And can a weaker team in the high mountains increase the risk that Pog gets isolated and more exposed if somethings happens, a flat, etc.

I think Vinge is closer to Pog than he was in Dauphine, but I'm not sure he will be as strong as Pog in the mountains. And if he is, I still wonder how Vinge will actually drop Pog. To me it can only happen if Pog gets a dip and I guess that is was Visma is hoping for, the fatigue thesis. I find impossible for Vinge to ride away from Pog at Pog's current level.

So what do you all think? Is Vinge doomed or does he stand a realistic chance of beating Pog?

 

[Unchained]

He definitely has a chance!!!

 

[dr.eve]

So what do we think of Vinge ahead of the Pyrenees? Can he challenge Pog in the high mountains? He was clearly a level below Pog in the mountains in Dauphine even if he improved a bit after the first mountain stage.

I think it's fair to say his shape has improved to the tour. But who knows, maybe Pog's shape has also improved?

That he has been able to follow two really hard attacks by Pog is a good sign. It's even more than I expected given that Pog's attacks have been absolutely brutal last couple of years. For a 59kg Vinge to follow them is really impressive I think. But if it translates into riding as well as Pog on the longer climbs is not certain, even if it indicates he will be stronger on the longer climbs than in Dauphine.

That he is more explosive than ever is crucial because it makes it more possible to follow Pog's initial burst when he attacks in the mountains and that will be important. If Pog is away it will be hard to catch him. If he can follow Pog, Pog might get frustrated and overextend. In Dauphine Pog had a strong leadout before he attacked and then Vinge could follow. Pog's two attacks in the tour so far hasn't being set up like in Dauphine. Visma will be worried about a strong leadout for Pog in the coming mountain stages. Question is they can prevent it from happening.

But it's not enough to just be able to follow Pog, he must somewhere even drop him. Question is if he has the ability to do that? Pog doesn't seem to have any weaknesses anymore. Earlier we thought that a hard tour would benefit Vinge over Pog, but now that seems questionable. Visma however seem to believe it's true, and they wouldn't believe it without some reasons would they? Do they know something we don't? Do they think a hard spring campaign for Pog can have an affect the last week? And can a weaker team in the high mountains increase the risk that Pog gets isolated and more exposed if somethings happens, a flat, etc.

I think Vinge is closer to Pog than he was in Dauphine, but I'm not sure he will be as strong as Pog in the mountains. And if he is, I still wonder how Vinge will actually drop Pog. To me it can only happen if Pog gets a dip and I guess that is was Visma is hoping for, the fatigue thesis. I find impossible for Vinge to ride away from Pog at Pog's current level.

So what do you all think? Is Vinge doomed or does he stand a realistic chance of beating Pog?

I think a fit Pogacar will crack Vingegaard. Yes Vingegaard followed his attacks thus far, but we haven't seen these attacks after attack after attack moves. Normally when Pogacar does that, the first one or two times Vingegaard follows, then next he no longer can and does a steady pace up.

I do however think Pogacar can be beaten if he simply has less recovery in the 3rd week, already in 2nd week is possible but highly unlikely. So I think Vingegaard en Visma need to make each stage as hard as they can without destroying themselves obviously. Of course people will say but Vingegaard also gets fatigued... Yes thats true, but I hope Vingegaard recovers better from day to day, he has shown he can. This may be an old tactic which they already attempted succesfully and unsuccesfully before, but I do think it is the only feasible one. Last year it makes sense that Vingegaard was lacking a huge part of his recovery seeing he was bedridden for a while after his crash in the spring.

This year I think he has had more or less optimal prep, albeit less match fitness perhaps. But then again Pogacar is also as fit as he possibly can. Though I think his team is worse and UAE is not known for their brilliance.... They often make odd mistakes, see last Giro again.

Still Pogacar clear favourite because of his insane all year round ability to dominate anything anyone anywhere.

But yes I think so far its going better than expected apart from the TT. I do expect much better on the climbing TT, my hopes are that Vingegaard puts time into Pogacar there, I think he has to to stand a chance. For me makes no sense if he looses big time in the mountain TT and expects to stand a chance on the mountain top finish stages.

Edit: I just find it so difficult to read Pogacar. Sometimes I think he looks less strong, something looks out of the ordinary, next moment I think he is actually holding back, being less aggressive et cetera. Hard to say. What I do notice is that Vingegaard really does look stronger than I am used from Vingegaard.

 

[YavorD]

Even if Vingegaard is feeling fantastic, why would you attack and play your cards at that moment? To gain what, 10s? Do it on a longer climb, so that the mental impact is bigger too, so Pogacar might lose more time.

Because Vingegaard may not feel as strong in the coming stages.
And if he was able to drop Pogacar, you could only imagine the psychological (and even helped by media questions ) blow it would have over Pogacar.
Imagine the reactions "Vingegaard was able to drop Pogacar on a very short climb and his team is very weak. What will happen when the big mountains come?". It woud add an immense pressure, which is valuable imo.

And then even if he is dropped, you can see his cards and adjust your strategy accordingly without losing much.

Really, attack would be a low risk-high reward option imo. Of course if he was feeling great.
I'm inclined to believe he wasn't and he is just bluffing.

 

[Kedjan]

He definitely has a chance!!!

Let us hope so! I really don't want the tour to be over after stage 13.

I think a fit Pogacar will crack Vingegaard. Yes Vingegaard followed his attacks thus far, but we haven't seen these attacks after attack after attack moves. Normally when Pogacar does that, the first one or two times Vingegaard follows, then next he no longer can and does a steady pace up.

I do however think Pogacar can be beaten if he simply has less recovery in the 3rd week, already in 2nd week is possible but highly unlikely. So I think Vingegaard en Visma need to make each stage as hard as they can without destroying themselves obviously. Of course people will say but Vingegaard also gets fatigued... Yes thats true, but I hope Vingegaard recovers better from day to day, he has shown he can. This may be an old tactic which they already attempted succesfully and unsuccesfully before, but I do think it is the only feasible one. Last year it makes sense that Vingegaard was lacking a huge part of his recovery seeing he was bedridden for a while after his crash in the spring.

This year I think he has had more or less optimal prep, albeit less match fitness perhaps. But then again Pogacar is also as fit as he possibly can. Though I think his team is worse and UAE is not known for their brilliance.... They often make odd mistakes, see last Giro again.

Still Pogacar clear favourite because of his insane all year round ability to dominate anything anyone anywhere.

But yes I think so far its going better than expected apart from the TT. I do expect much better on the climbing TT, my hopes are that Vingegaard puts time into Pogacar there, I think he has to to stand a chance. For me makes no sense if he looses big time in the mountain TT and expects to stand a chance on the mountain top finish stages.

Edit: I just find it so difficult to read Pogacar. Sometimes I think he looks less strong, something looks out of the ordinary, next moment I think he is actually holding back, being less aggressive et cetera. Hard to say. What I do notice is that Vingegaard really does look stronger than I am used from Vingegaard.

Totally agree with this. If he beats Pog or is close (less then 10s behind) then we know he is around Pog's level and if Pog dips a bit in the 3rd week Vinge might have a chance. But the mtt should favour Pog a bit, he is usually exceptionally good on 20 minutes climbing efforts.

To your last point: difficulty in reading Pog's level. This is why I don't exclude pure dominance by Pog, winning Hautacam with 1 minute. I have had small doubts before and he has almost everytime proved me wrong.

 

[Unchained]

Let us hope so! I really don't want the tour to be over after stage 13.

Totally agree with this. If he beats Pog or is close (less then 10s behind) then we know he is around Pog's level and if Pog dips a bit in the 3rd week Vinge might have a chance. But the mtt should favour Pog a bit, he is usually exceptionally good on 20 minutes climbing efforts.

To your last point: difficulty in reading Pog's level. This is why I don't exclude pure dominance by Pog, winning Hautacam with 1 minute. I have had small doubts before and he has almost everytime proved me wrong.

Relative racing is one thing, but if Pogacar puts minutes into people in the time trial will be difficult to overcome.. Top @8 riders, Pogacar included need the best TT of their career..

 

[TrekCyclist]

short steep climbs is more about anaerobic engine {of course aerobic base also is neccessary). Long climbs is aerobic / threshold engine.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

short steep climbs is more about anaerobic engine {of course aerobic base also is neccessary). Long climbs is aerobic / threshold engine.

In case of Vingo his aerobic engine is so superior that he can distance non-mutants even on 1 km steep climbs. Obviously his anaerobic capabilities (above average for a guy of his physique) help as well.

 

[dr.eve]

Relative racing is one thing, but if Pogacar puts minutes into people in the time trial will be difficult to overcome.. Top @8 riders, Pogacar included need the best TT of their career..

Yep this TT will be crucial, it wont lie it will show your climbing legs.

Of course there's an endurance difference vs longer mountain stages but still it will be telling.

 

[Red Rick]

short steep climbs is more about anaerobic engine {of course aerobic base also is neccessary). Long climbs is aerobic / threshold engine.

2 minutes is gonna be more aerobic than it is anaerobic. 3 minutes is close to VO2 max duration, even if there's a significant anaerobic component still.

The duration where it's mostly anaerobic is quite easy to remember as 400m track athletes have 0 shot against 800m athletes at a 600m. Anaerobic majority is gonna be very short, especially for endurance athletes, who aren't very specialized to anaerobic efforts to begin with.

For example, the W/kg that got people raving where Vingegaard supposedly did 10.8W/kg for 55 seconds is roundabout Jeffrey *** Hoogland's hour record W/kg.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

2 minutes is gonna be more aerobic than it is anaerobic. 3 minutes is close to VO2 max duration, even if there's a significant anaerobic component still.

The duration where it's mostly anaerobic is quite easy to remember as 400m track athletes have 0 shot against 800m athletes at a 600m. Anaerobic majority is gonna be very short, especially for endurance athletes, who aren't very specialized to anaerobic efforts to begin with.

For example, the W/kg that got people raving where Vingegaard supposedly did 10.8W/kg for 55 seconds is roundabout Jeffrey *** Hoogland's hour record W/kg.

yeah, 2 minutes max effort is probably like 70% aerobic. I think performances around 10-15 minutes long are most correlated with one's vo2max (due to much less anaerobic component than 3-5 minutes efforts)

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

For example, the W/kg that got people raving where Vingegaard supposedly did 10.8W/kg for 55 seconds is roundabout Jeffrey *** Hoogland's hour record W/kg.

Very impressive! Why doesn’t Hoogland race (and win) the Tour???

 

[Peyroteo94]

yeah, 2 minutes max effort is probably like 70% aerobic. I think performances around 10-15 minutes long are most correlated with one's vo2max (due to much less anaerobic component than 3-5 minutes efforts)

Yup, they will have a true Vo2 max test in the MTT.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Can that be categorized as vo2 max? I always figured that was in the 5-10 min range. I'd think a 25 min ITT effort is more of a slightly above threshold stuff.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Can that be categorized as vo2 max? I always figured that was in the 5-10 min range. I'd think a 25 min ITT effort is more of a slightly above threshold stuff.

It can be up to 20 minutes

 

[Kedjan]

In 2023 Vinge did some strong 10-20 minutes efforts. On Cote de Domancy to Combloux he put out huge watts/kg (around 7,4, if I remember correct) over 13-14 minutes (6,05k at 6,84 %) . He will probably need to be even better than this to threaten Pog in the MTT, but I'm confident Vinge will do well.

 

[Red Rick]

yeah, 2 minutes max effort is probably like 70% aerobic. I think performances around 10-15 minutes long are most correlated with one's vo2max (due to much less anaerobic component than 3-5 minutes efforts)

5 minutes+ the anaerobic system is really not that important anymore, but the confusion you get is becaus cyclists, due to drafting will basically never do a flat out 5 minute climb from the bottom.

 

[Red Rick]

In 2023 Vinge did some strong 10-20 minutes efforts. On Cote de Domancy to Combloux he put out huge watts/kg (around 7,4, if I remember correct) over 13-14 minutes (6,05k at 6,84 %) . He will probably need to be even better than this to threaten Pog in the MTT, but I'm confident Vinge will do well.

Every time I read the 7.4 number I feel that urge to jump off a cliff because it's the dumbest thing out there. It's pure clickbait and they deliberately ignored the TT bike and give him the CdA of an zeppelin to get to that number only to later track all the way back and say it was much lower.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Can that be categorized as vo2 max? I always figured that was in the 5-10 min range. I'd think a 25 min ITT effort is more of a slightly above threshold stuff.

i ve read about 3-8 minutes duration depending on individual. But keep in mind that aerobic response is not instant. Highly trained individuals (and not only them methinks) perform majority of 10-15 minutes max efforts at/near vo2max (ie last 7 minutes of 10 minute effort). Cooper test (12 minutes) is very hard cause you operate at/near vo2max (and at high lactate level) for considerable time

 

[Kedjan]

Every time I read the 7.4 number I feel that urge to jump off a cliff because it's the dumbest thing out there. It's pure clickbait and they deliberately ignored the TT bike and give him the CdA of an zeppelin to get to that number only to later track all the way back and say it was much lower.

Ok, so what was the more proper estimate? It still must have been really high because the competition were not even close.

 

[Red Rick]

Ok, so what was the more proper estimate? It still must have been really high because the competition were not even close.

I forgot what it was but IIRC it was like 6.8-7.0.

The most obvious red flag that it wasn't that insane was that Vingegaard didn't take the KoM on Combloux and that Ciccone was faster than him on the steepest 7 minutes of the climb.

In reality, Vingegaard did a really good 13 minute climb, but the rest and especially Pogacar did a terrible performance all things considering.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Of course Vingegaard never did 7.4 W/Kg. Just compare his climb with Pogacar 4 weeks ago.

 

[Kedjan]

I forgot what it was but IIRC it was like 6.8-7.0.

The most obvious red flag that it wasn't that insane was that Vingegaard didn't take the KoM on Combloux and that Ciccone was faster than him on the steepest 7 minutes of the climb.

In reality, Vingegaard did a really good 13 minute climb, but the rest and especially Pogacar did a terrible performance all things considering.

If I remember correct Ciccone took it quite easy and just went all in on that short steep climb to get KOM points, getting ahead of Powless in the competition. After all he was 6 minutes behind Vinge on the stage. So not an entirely fair comparison I think.

Think you downplay Vinge's performance somewhat. Rest was just terriable?