Jonathan Tiernan-Locke written to by UCI, asked to explain blood values

[thehog]

Why is everyone that disagrees with you a (sky)bot? Picking some choice comments from other posters


I don't consider any of these posters to be of a pro-Sky agenda?

Not at all. I have the upmost respect for Netserk's posts. But printing one graph without any commentary is not really entering a discussion. I've not heard from him since.

Jimmy was the same. He believed it was the silver bullet to the JTL doped alone and stopped at Sky theory.

So I printed 3 other graphs which look exactly the same if not worse than JTLs. All straight line up. One could spend all day on CQRankings finding graphs similar. Froome is crazy looking graph considering he was already at PT level and when you look at his early season 2011 compared to the Vuelta. I can 't find words to begin to explain that.

I think JTLs graph is not surprising for CQ ranking considering he was stepping up from 2.2 races to 2.1. Along with the ToB in 2011 having two stages cancelled; Meaning zero points accumulation in a 2.1 race for Rapha-Conador riders who predominantly race 2.2 and lower.

The other part was joining Endura and having access to races in Europe. Racing the Tour of Med with sub zero temperatures and shortened final stage on Mont Faron to 77km meant he could collect points for a crit distance!

Again JTL rode well in 2012. But he rode smart. All his points basically come Jan-early March and ToB.

Then there's the WC. And that's where the doping infraction comes from. JTL had stated well before the passport case he was training with Kerrison prep & training with Sky since April of that year.

If I'm to believe the theories here; I'm told to believe he was clean as a junior with excellent results, clean in 2011 with good results and started doping in 2012 in January and for the WCs. He then stopped in 2013 when joining Sky.

Scary

 

[simo1733]

Yes that Quintana. Below is Quintana's results from 2011.

JTL's jump was nothing like him. But sounds like both were progressing. Quintana much much faster, yes?

So JTL is doping here but not Quintana? Or both just having a breakout point in their career?

Go back to 2010 and include him winning the Tour de l'avinir. I seem to remember that was a pretty strong field.Talansky,kelderman,kwiatkovsky,Phinney,Pantano,landa.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Not at all. I have the upmost respect for Netserk's posts. But printing one graph without any commentary is not really entering a discussion. I've not heard from him since.

Jimmy was the same. He believed it was the silver bullet to the JTL doped alone and stopped at Sky theory.

So I printed 3 other graphs which look exactly the same if not worse than JTLs. All straight line up. One could spend all day on CQRankings finding graphs similar. Froome is crazy looking graph considering he was already at PT level and when you look at his early season 2011 compared to the Vuelta. I can 't find words to begin to explain that.

I think JTLs graph is not surprising for CQ ranking considering he was stepping up from 2.2 races to 2.1. Along with the ToB in 2011 having two stages cancelled; Meaning zero points accumulation in a 2.1 race for Rapha-Conador riders who predominantly race 2.2 and lower.

The other part was joining Endura and having access to races in Europe. Racing the Tour of Med with sub zero temperatures and shortened final stage on Mont Faron to 77km meant he could collect points for a crit distance!

Again JTL rode well in 2012. But he rode smart. All his points basically come Jan-early March and ToB.

Then there's the WC. And that's where the doping infraction comes from. JTL had stated well before the passport case he was training with Kerrison prep & training with Sky since April of that year.

If I'm to believe the theories here; I'm told to believe he was clean as a junior with excellent results, clean in 2011 with good results and started doping in 2012 in January and for the WCs. He then stopped in 2013 when joining Sky.

Scary

But you argue his early 2012 (Up until April) was just a natural progression?

 

[thehog]

Go back to 2010 and include him winning the Tour de l'avinir. I seem to remember that was a pretty strong field.Talansky,kelderman,kwiatkovsky,Phinney,Pantano,landa.

Sure. I don't doubt it.

As I keep saying most cyclists have a backstory of results which provide an indication to future success.

JTL as well as many others has this same backstory.

There are anomalies like Froome but in all cases providing data alone doesn't tell the story.

Additionally CqRankings don't include non-UCI races. So if your looking at junior riders or those who rode amateur races in France etc. it doesn't get flagged in the dataset. That's problematic dependent on where the rider comes from.

JTL may well have doped in 2012. My initial position was that he did. But once I looked a little deeper I discovered a guy who appeared very talented as junior. He got sick and completed his degree and made a slow churn back to former glories.

He's does have a design degree after all. There's better ways to earn money than getting paid 40k by Endura to race in January!

I suspect we'll have verdict around September maybe later if the hearing goes ahead in July.

Perhaps the interest will not be in the verdict but in the summary.

 

[thehog]

But you argue his early 2012 (Up until April) was just a natural progression?

Pedro. A good thread to start would be: "What is natural progression & what does it look like".

The responses and discussion would be interesting.

 

[blackcat]

results also are the product of opportunity withing your own squad, not just the race list, if you go to a deeper team, you will need to work for someone else.

 

[thehog]

results also are the product of opportunity withing your own squad, not just the race list, if you go to a deeper team, you will need to work for someone else.

Correct. Riding Tour of Med or Haut Var with a free reign is very different than being a lackey at Paris-Nice and sitting on the front from kilometer zero.

Not great for confidence either. Should have gone to Garmin.

 

[SundayRider]

Pedro. A good thread to start would be: "What is natural progression & what does it look like".

The responses and discussion would be interesting.

I don't think such a thread would be a good idea - been covered to death in many other threads. It's impossible to tell. Even in other sports like football for example some players who are great at national under 21 level never make the grade and drop down the leagues, some players never even play at under 21 level and slowly work their way up the leagues.

I can think of very few examples of when athletes have made a perfectly aligned progression.

 

[thehog]

I don't think such a thread would be a good idea - been covered to death in many other threads. It's impossible to tell. Even in other sports like football for example some players who are great at national under 21 level never make the grade and drop down the leagues, some players never even play at under 21 level and slowly work their way up the leagues.

I can think of very few examples of when athletes have made a perfectly aligned progression.

I agree with you.

The point I was raising is "natural progression" does not equal x in each and every single situation.

There certainly are instances of blatant and obvious non-natural progression like Froome and they get called out.

But yes natural progression comes in many forms and circumstances.

 

[JimmyFingers]

So he's clean then?

 

[Mellow Velo]

You mean that's supports your theroy. Or Bot theory.

Profile "plateu" - think I've heard of it all now.

That's not how the passport works. It's not a system to exonerate Brailsford

Clearly not well enough: It's plateau.

Well, your theory seems to apparently begin and end at the World champs.
1) Not doping early season 2012 at Endura when winning 2.1 races.
2) Doping later in 2012, while with BC/Sky when winning 2.1 races.
(i.e. doped to the gills by BC/Sky)
3) 2013: Doped to the gills while at Sky when finishing in the bus, if finishing at all. So, avoid and ignore at all costs.

I think in the spirit of fairness to all, we'll have to name this theory, too.
Wart logic is catchy, so anyone who adheres to it gets a nice little group name, too: Hogwarts.

 

[thehog]

Clearly not well enough: It's plateau.

Well, your theory seems to apparently begin and end at the World champs.
1) Not doping early season 2012 at Endura when winning 2.1 races.
2) Doping later in 2012, while with BC/Sky when winning 2.1 races.
(i.e. doped to the gills by BC/Sky)
3) 2013: Doped to the gills while at Sky when finishing in the bus, if finishing at all. So, avoid and ignore at all costs.

I think in the spirit of fairness to all, we'll have to name this theory, too.
Wart logic is catchy, so anyone who adheres to it gets a nice little group name, too: Hogwarts.

Not my theory just the facts.

Not sure where I used the phrase "doped to gills"? Or are you using that term for effect?

I can tell you is JTL has a doping infraction from the Worlds. That's what the passport panel will review.

Not Bot-theory based on trying to make Sky and used car salesman Brailsford look clean.

 

[JimmyFingers]

Not my theory just the facts.

Not sure where I used the phrase "doped to gills"? Or are you that term for effect?

I can tell you is JTL has a doping infraction from the Worlds. That's what the passport panel will review.

Not Bot-theory based on trying to make Sky and used salesman Brailsford look clean.

No, instead its the opposite, a massively over-complicated attempt to provide a very convoluted theory based on very sketchy facts, to desperately implicate Sky.

You are as usual conjuring stuff from the ether. Carry on, you are giving everyone a good laugh at least.

 

[pmcg76]

You're not the brightest spark are you?

In 2012 he changed to Endura to ride more European races hence the results are different from the previous year which were mainly UK based.

But you know don't let facts get in the way of your theory.



And the blood testing is his fault because? I guess Froome & Quintana better watch out with their progression and blood testing

Good video here of JTL at 2011 ToB, worth watching, it's very well shot. Good crowds. This is before he started doping..

http://vimeo.com/30077114

If I am not the brighest then you are the idiot of all idiots. All you are doing is going back to the thread that was around when he had his amazing jump in performance and then regurgitating the exact same arguments put forward by his defenders then. It's like reading that thread word for word. Hardly genius like. Good to know you can copy and paste though.

The arguments didn't make any sense back then and they make even less sense since he was busted.

Trying to claim that its logical to not perform at a low level, then move up a level and perform much better is idiocy of the highest level. I guess competing in Korea, South Africa, Ireland, Spain, France is not competing internationally either.

Just more nonsense like your claim that JTL was appointed leader for the Britsh Worlds team in April 2012. RR asked you how many times to back your claim just like I have asked how many times for you to provide another example of riders who have done the same as JTL but just like before, you continoulsy deflect the question cos you ain't got any answer.

 

[thehog]

If I am not the brighest then you are the idiot of all idiots. All you are doing is going back to the thread that was around when he had his amazing jump in performance and then regurgitating the exact same arguments put forward by his defenders then. It's like reading that thread word for word. Hardly genius like. Good to know you can copy and paste though.

The arguments didn't make any sense back then and they make even less sense since he was busted.

Trying to claim that its logical to not perform at a low level, then move up a level and perform much better is idiocy of the highest level. I guess competing in Korea, South Africa, Ireland, Spain, France is not competing internationally either.

Just more nonsense like your claim that JTL was appointed leader for the Britsh Worlds team in April 2012. RR asked you how many times to back your claim just like I have asked how many times for you to provide another example of riders who have done the same as JTL but just like before, you continoulsy deflect the question cos you ain't got any answer.

Again you keep setting out binary challenges which mean very little in the context of JTL with his sickness etc.

I could throw out Degenkolb as an example to satisfy your absurd criteria, yes? But what does it mean? 700 points in the ProTour coming from Contential at 100 points and 60 the year before. He had excellent result in much bigger races than JTL. There are several Columbian riders busting out of lower ranks with good results like JTL.

But what's the point? You need context.

As for leadership of the Worlds. The point remains; Brailsford had earmarked him for the team way back in April of that year. Smith repeated it several times.

It's fairly clear what Brailford was planning knowing the schedule of Wiggo/Froome.

You can dress up your arguments all you like but you can't make JTL and possible doping an Endura problem. It's got Brailsfords fingerprints all over it.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Not my theory just the facts.

But they are not facts. You have no idea if he was doping early 2012. You yourself said you thought he was and now think (very conveniently) he was clean after all.

I personally have no idea since I don't know what his base line talent was. There was a great post by LS sometime ago that went along the lines of he had some potential but no one expected him to do that well in all those races.

What you say is possible but I, like many others, think your agenda is more to suit a certain narrative then to genuinely believe what you are saying.

 

[mroli74]

This has gone on so long that by the time a decision is finally given, the public will all be saying Jonathan Who? Who did he ride for? Did he ever win anything? And that may be what all the stakeholders and interested parties want.

Not ALL the stakeholders/interested parties. I'm pretty sure JTL would want this cleared up one way or another?

 

[thehog]

But they are not facts. You have no idea if he was doping early 2012. You yourself said you thought he was and now think (very conveniently) he was clean after all.

I personally have no idea since I don't know what his base line talent was. There was a great post by LS sometime ago that went along the lines of he had some potential but no one expected him to do that well in all those races.

What you say is possible but I, like many others, think your agenda is more to suit a certain narrative then to genuinely believe what you are saying.

Agreed.

The assertion that JTLs results "leveled off" at Sky from the previous year is correct. That they did.

Why did they?

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to go & look up the races he rode in 2013 compared to 2012. All PT races with the exception of Algarve. I mean look at what he rode in 2012.

At Endura he had a free reign as leader and they targeted the early season 2.1 races, in some cases even scouting the finishing climb! And that's in January!

So to come up with a theory that he stopped doping at Sky when JTL role had changed significantly from the previous year, with longer, harder races with much better in-season competition, then of course the "dip" in results makes sense.

But to suggest that he turned off the doping because of Sky is utterly absurd.

 

[pmcg76]

Again you keep setting out binary challenges which mean very little in the context of JTL with his sickness etc.

I could throw out Degenkolb as an example to satisfy your absurd criteria, yes? But what does it mean? 700 points in the ProTour coming from Contential at 100 points and 60 the year before. He had excellent result in much bigger races than JTL. There are several Columbian riders busting out of lower ranks with good results like JTL.

But what's the point? You need context.

As for leadership of the Worlds. The point remains; Brailsford had earmarked him for the team way back in April of that year. Smith repeated it several times.

It's fairly clear what Brailford was planning knowing the schedule of Wiggo/Froome.

You can dress up your arguments all you like but you can't make JTL and possible doping an Endura problem. It's got Brailsfords fingerprints all over it.

Except John Degenkolb is a perfect example of natural progression as in 2010 he took ten wins as well as second at the World Championships Espoirs. Read that again, 2nd at the Worlds Championships 21 years of age. Big, big talent Then when he moved to WT level, his wins dropped to six but he scored more points as they were bigger races. Natural progression Hog.

JTL is the opposite, won one race in 2011 at continental and then wins 8-9 at a higher level. Doh.

Amazing how you put forward a guy who completely destroys your own narrative.

 

[thehog]

Except John Degenkolb is a perfect example of natural progression as in 2010 he took ten wins as well as second at the World Championships Espoirs. Read that again, 2nd at the Worlds Championships 21 years of age. Big, big talent Then when he moved to WT level, his wins dropped to six but he scored more points as they were bigger races. Natural progression Hog.

JTL is the opposite, won one race in 2011 at continental and then wins 8-9 at a higher level. Doh.

Amazing how you put forward a guy who completely destroys your own narrative.

You see how absurd your criteria is? Just as I explained it needs context.

Perhaps rather than fight me, spend the time look at the data.

You ask for me to name one person. And of course it's wrong. A guy jumps from Cont level to ProTour and amasses 700 points. Way more than JTL.

But that's not allowed under your rules.

You're really not helping yourself here.

 

[thehog]

Agreed.

The assertion that JTLs results "leveled off" at Sky from the previous year is correct. That they did.

Why did they?

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to go & look up the races he rode in 2013 compared to 2012. All PT races with the exception of Algarve. I mean look at what he rode in 2012.

At Endura he had a free reign as leader and they targeted the early season 2.1 races, in some cases even scouting the finishing climb! And that's in January!

So to come up with a theory that he stopped doping at Sky when JTL role had changed significantly from the previous year, with longer, harder races with much better in-season competition, then of course the "dip" in results makes sense.

But to suggest that he turned off the doping because of Sky is utterly absurd.

Bumping this as it's a very good response.

 

[pmcg76]

You see how absurd your criteria is? Just as I explained it needs context.

Perhaps rather than fight me, spend the time look at the data.

You ask for me to name one person. And of course it's wrong. A guy jumps from Cont level to ProTour and amasses 700 points. Way more than JTL.

But that's not allowed under your rules.

You're really not helping yourself here.

Because the rider demonstrated the talent to do so, forget CQ points and look at 2nd in the Worlds, 2 stages at the Tour de L'Avenir and winner of the Thuringe Rundfahrt, one of the biggest U-23 races on the international calendar. U-23 races don't really garner you CQ points so of course an U-23 rider wont have big CQ scores.

So big talent moves to WL level, wins less but gains way more points as CQ is weighted that way. It's not really that hard.

 

[gooner]

His golden result is the Worlds. Trading blows with Contador. Incidentally or coincidently that's the race whereby he has a doping infraction to answer.

If you're saying this was all done in Sky's knowledge, why wasn't he nailing it in Pais Vasco, LBL and Canada after they gave him big fat contract?

 

[thehog]

Because the rider demonstrated the talent to do so, forget CQ points and look at 2nd in the Worlds, 2 stages at the Tour de L'Avenir and winner of the Thuringe Rundfahrt, one of the biggest U-23 races on the international calendar. U-23 races don't really garner you CQ points so of course an U-23 rider wont have big CQ scores.

So big talent moves to WL level, wins less but gains way more points as CQ is weighted that way. It's not really that hard.

Again as I stated up front. There will be context and why I thought the criteria was absurd.

Mind you, this is your game and you're making the rules up.

So knock yourself out. You'll be the smartest guy in the room when you're the only one playing

 

[thehog]

If you're saying this was all done in Sky's knowledge, why wasn't he nailing it in Pais Vasco, LBL and Canada after they gave him big fat contract?

What am I saying?

I'm saying that he has a passport infraction from the worlds where he performed very well and was the nominated leader.

Facts. Don't you hate them?!