Journal of Sports Sciences Article: " unique progression of road cycling speed"

[rata de sentina]

I would like to draw your attention to the following recently published scientific article which may D) be relevant to the Clinic. I have posted the abstract below and here is a link to pubmed if you have full text access to the journal.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20473822
I'm just reading it myself and will probably comment a bit further once I finish.

Tour de France, Giro, Vuelta, and classic European races show a unique progression of road cycling speed in the last 20 years. El Helou N, Berthelot G, Thibault V, Tafflet M, Nassif H, Campion F, Hermine O, Toussaint JF.
J Sports Sci. 2010 May;28(7):789-96.

Abstract

Road cycling ranks among the most intense endurance exercises. Previous studies and mathematical models describing road cycling have not analysed performances per se. We describe the evolution of road cycling performance over the past 116 years. We studied the top ten cyclists' mean speeds in eight famous classic races and three European Grand Tours, using a previously published multi-exponential model that highlights the different progression periods of an event during the century. In addition, we measured an indicator of difficulty for the Tour de France by calculating the climbing index (i.e. the total altitude climbed over total distance). The eleven races' mean speed increased progressively from 23.13 km . h(-1) in 1892 to 41.19 +/- 2.03 km . h(-1) in 2008. Road cycling development, like other quantifiable disciplines, fits a piecewise progression pattern that follows three periods: before, between, and after the two World Wars. However, a fourth period begins after 1993, providing a speed progression of 6.38% from the third one. The Tour de France's climbing index also provided insight into a recent paradoxical relationship with speeds: when the climbing index increased, the winner's speed also increased. Our results show a major improvement (6.38%) in road cycling performance in the last 20 years and question the role of extra-physiological parameters in this recent progression.

 

[JPM London]

... Our results show a major improvement (6.38%) in road cycling performance in the last 20 years and question the role of extra-physiological parameters in this recent progression.

Hmmm... Wonder what they mean by that expression...

 

[trompe le monde]

Thanks for this. I downloaded the pdf.

The conclusion isn't very long, but I'll quote most of it:

"…However, after 30 years of stagnation, a blunt progression phase was observed after 1993, with a 6.38% increase in mean cycling performance. Although further research is required to validate the direct causes and consequences of our findings, performance modelling has important implications for the role of extra-physiological parameters." p. 795.

Also, the article discusses just before the conclusion the following paradox - that between 1960 and 1989 the relationship between distance and height climbed in the Tour de France showed a coherent relationship, in that the longer the distance and the more metres cyclists were forced to climb the slower the average speed of the Tour de France was. However, post 1989 a paradox resulted, and I will quote:

"During period 4, total distance (D) in the Tour de France increased from 3285 km to 3944 km (1989–1997) and total altitude climbed (A) increased from 24,308 m to 41,057m. In theory, both of these changes should make the race more difficult. The expected result would have been a decrease in mean speed [11.3% speed reduction due to the increased race distance (Figure 5D), and 6.5% speed reduction due to the increase in A (Figure 5A)]. In fact the change observed was a 4.5% improvement (from 37.48 km.h* in 1989 to 39.24 km.h in 1997), contributing to the 6.38% improvement of global road cycling progression in period 4 (Figure 1)."

In lay persons terms, as the Tour de France essentially became harder, both longer and more mountainous metres climbed, paradoxically it also resulted in average speeds that are higher. This effect became visible in their defined period 4, which is 1993 to 2008.


*'km.h' citation slightly modified to fit within the parameters of this forum's posting restrictions. Without modification some arcane symbols would show up. Figures remain unchanged.


rata de sentina, hope you don't mind that I went ahead and posted a few quotes from the article.

 

[trompe le monde]

Hmmm... Wonder what they mean by that expression...

Surely the answer must be cadence, right?

 

[Jonathan]

Surely the answer must be cadence, right?

That's impossible, because everyone was inefficiently pushing huge gears at a low cadence before 1999.

EPO explains the increase in the years 1993-1998. After that, the increase can be explained by high cadence and scouting mountain stages during christmas.

 

[ruamruam]

That's impossible, because everyone was inefficiently pushing huge gears at a low cadence before 1999.

EPO explains the increase in the years 1993-1998. After that, the increase can be explained by high cadence and scouting mountain stages during christmas.

and hating cancer

 

[Fester]

Does it account for the exponential increase in air resistance in relation to increases in speed?

 

[Ferminal]

Surely the answer must be cadence, right?

ha, the article managed to get more of the myth in than that.

"Other factors are improvements in training techniques and facilities, strategies and tactics"

 

[Ferminal]

"Four periods are observed; the first three included the two World Wars (from P1 to P3). A fourth period (P4) appears after 1993."

"Mean standard deviation of the top ten riders' performances for each race decreased from 0.60 ± 0.74 km · h-1 in 1909 to 0.11 ± 0.05 km · h-1 in 1945 and 0.049 ± 0.075 km · h-1 in 2008." (Can be explained by non-doping factors).

There's a graph showing a big spike in TdF speed records around 2000...

Also states that up until 1990, speeds in the TdF decrease as the altitude climbed increase, but post-1990 the trend has been the opposite, where more climbing = faster speeds.

 

[la.margna]

as i can't stand the cancer of cycling and his lies, i like this forum!

yes, it's all about high cadence and scouting mountain stages during christmas!

 

[Hawkwood]

Interesting article, particularly this bit:

`In 30 years, from 1960 to 1989, mean cycling speed was relatively constant at about 37.77 ± 0.44 km ·'

Yes this period saw better roads, lighter/better bikes, lycra (try cycling up a mountain in sweat soaked wool shorts!), more gears (8 to 14 I'd guess), better diet, more understanding of fluid replacement, more aerodynamic bikes/riders, better training, clipless pedals, indexed gearing... This suggests that there wasn't much (any?) development in the drugs that were in use over the 30-year period.

 

[flyor64]

Interesting article, particularly this bit:

`In 30 years, from 1960 to 1989, mean cycling speed was relatively constant at about 37.77 ± 0.44 km ·'

Yes this period saw better roads, lighter/better bikes, lycra (try cycling up a mountain in sweat soaked wool shorts!), more gears (8 to 14 I'd guess), better diet, more understanding of fluid replacement, more aerodynamic bikes/riders, better training, clipless pedals, indexed gearing... This suggests that there wasn't much (any?) development in the drugs that were in use over the 30-year period.

Didn't they quit smoking while riding around this time as well?

 

[blackcat]

did you reference Vaughters, cos that is blatant plagiarism uthawize

 

[rgmerk]

Hmmm.

It's an interesting analysis, though I'm not convinced by all of their methodological choices.

That said, the really interesting question isn't whether there was an abnormal bump in performance starting in the early 1990s. There undoubtedly was, and we have ample documented evidence as to why. The question is whether performances tail off a bit with the introduction of the biological passport, but there's not enough data to judge that yet.

 

[Hawkwood]

Didn't they quit smoking while riding around this time as well?

Most did, but a mate of mine claims he saw Kelly riding a time-trial while smoking in the 1980s, this was before he got serious about things!

When did they stop reading newspapers for the first hour or so of stages?

 

[drfunk000]

Another interesting article:

Int J Sports Med. 2010 Apr;31(4):261-4. Epub 2010 Feb 10.

Speed trends of major cycling races: does slower mean cleaner?
Perneger TV.

University Hospitals of Geneva, Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Geneva, Switzerland. thomas.perneger@hcuge.ch

Abstract
Since doping improves athletic performance, anti-doping policies should have the opposite effect. This analysis examined whether changes in the speed of major cycling races reflect recent anti-doping efforts. Average speeds of 5 (th) place finishers of the Tour de France, Giro d'Italia, and Vuelta a España cycling races were obtained for the period 1990-2009. Between 1990 and 2004, the average speed had been increasing by 0.16 km/h per year (p<0.001). In a downturn, since 2004, the average speed has decreased by 0.22 km/h per year (p=0.031). The slowing down of professional cycling races is compatible with the hypothesis that recent anti-doping efforts in professional cycling have curbed the use of performance-enhancing substances. Copyright Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart . New York.

 

[Vegan Dave]

ha, the article managed to get more of the myth in than that.

"Other factors are improvements in training techniques and facilities, strategies and tactics"

That's a relief..

I wonder how ITT times would compare as well. Considering the rigs and positions of riders now, compared to 30yrs ago....that would also increase the overall time of a Tour.

As for climbing, it does seem that there have been a lot of advancements. From lighter bikes to better training techniques and specificity. Were they training and racing back then like they are now? Certainly the 'turn the biggest gear you can' mentality resulted in slower climbs... (heh...yeah, cadence!)

Certainly doping has been a factor, but it would also push the clean riders to train harder, smarter, etc..

 

[Hawkwood]

As for climbing, it does seem that there have been a lot of advancements. From lighter bikes to better training techniques and specificity. Were they training and racing back then like they are now? Certainly the 'turn the biggest gear you can' mentality resulted in slower climbs... (heh...yeah, cadence!)

I seem to remember reading about a mountain stage where Merckx was on 44x23. I've also got a book featuring the bikes of various Tour winners and one of his weighed 24 lbs.

 

[MTBrider]

Another thing to consider is there was rather significant changes in technology around that time.

The early 90s was a time when bikes evolved rapidly; STI, Alunimum frames, disk wheels, time trial bikes, ect..

Also it was about that time that the introduction of race radios changed the tactical nature of racing dramatically.

I am not saying that something else wasn't going on too but the speed increase was due to drugs alone.

 

[Digger]

Another thing to consider is there was rather significant changes in technology around that time.

The early 90s was a time when bikes evolved rapidly; STI, Alunimum frames, disk wheels, time trial bikes, ect..

Also it was about that time that the introduction of race radios changed the tactical nature of racing dramatically.

I am not saying that something else wasn't going on too but the speed increase was due to drugs alone.

..........

 

[rgmerk]

Another interesting article:

Int J Sports Med. 2010 Apr;31(4):261-4. Epub 2010 Feb 10.

Speed trends of major cycling races: does slower mean cleaner?
Perneger TV.

I got a copy of this one too. One interesting point - the speeds at the Tour and Vuelta have gone down, but not the Giro...

The next step in this kind of analysis is to look at the general speed of the peloton vs. the GC contenders. It's possible that the slowdown is the result of the peloton in general; the GC riders may be doing TTs and mountaintop finishes as fast as in previous years.