Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[James M]

Forget climbing times and W/kg estimates. Look at gaps to rivals instead, because that is much less fluctuating than climbing times. And comparing to Vingegaard and Pogacar, PdB was where he lost the most time that Tour, although how much he was losing on the MTF was fairly stable altogether.

It fluctuates due to weather conditions and how demanding the stages are as a whole for sure ofc.

But W/kg can be very indicative, but the best approach imo is to combine it with the time gaps to rivals(and the quality of those riders, because riders also develop differently and thats not a black and white measurement) which then time gaps is best used to more gauge and give a picture how demanding the stage and conditions are as a whole. I think the two go hand in hand in general view.

 

[hayneplane]

Rather than just winning the UAE Tour, I think he also needs to not get beaten up on the climb like in 2023 to represent progression.

Not sure about Del Toro as it will be steep, maybe suiting Yates more. Almeida just a glorified Derek Gee I think, not much to worry about.

I tend to agree. Winning it because he has defended himself well enough after the ITT would be good but not indicative of the kind of step forward needed to get any higher up the podium in TDF than he managed in 2024.

Winning solo on the new MTF would be a big statement performance.

 

[kingjr]

We know Remco dreams of winning GT. So we know Remco and red Bull are doing whatever they can to reach that goal.
I'm not sure what's so controversial about it. Would you rather have Remco & Red Bull throw in the towel without trying.
The chances of Ullrich beating Armstrong were slim, but I was grateful he tried time and again. And If Ullrich was at his very best during his Bianchi days a miracle might have occured. Alas Ullrich was at his best before the 2000's and never reached his peak again.

In a Tour in the style of the Ullrich/Armstrong years with two long TTs and a Prologue, his chances wouldn't be so bad.

 

[houtdffan]

In a Tour in the style of the Ullrich/Armstrong years with two long TTs and a Prologue, his chances wouldn't be so bad.

and don't forget an epic length TTT

 

[Cycling111]

and don't forget an epic length TTT

There have also been Tours with 250 km mountain stages with 4 mountains.
But no matter how many time trials there are, you can't win the Tour if you can't beat the second rider on any mountain stage.
Without achieving that, there's no chance of dethroning the leader.

Furthermore, Pogacar and Vineggaard are attacking each other. As soon as they see Remco as a real rival, and not just a third rider who doesn't pose a threat, they'll attack him.

In any case, Pogacar performs better in the Tour's time trials because he trains for them. They wouldn't lost 5 minutes, they're not Pantani at ITT.
It's naive to think that Remo is only one long time trial away from winning the Tour. First, he has to match Vingegaard in the mountain, or beat him in some stages, not finish behind him in all of them.

To have a chance to win, it's important to be the second better. Few cyclists have won the Tour as a third favorite (without accidents or incidents).

Beating Vingegaard in Catalunya will be a first step, although we already know that Vingegaard improves his performance in the Tour

 

[houtdffan]

There have also been Tours with 250 km mountain stages with 4 mountains.
But no matter how many time trials there are, you can't win the Tour if you can't beat the second rider on any mountain stage.
Without achieving that, there's no chance of dethroning the leader.

Furthermore, Pogacar and Vineggaard are attacking each other. As soon as they see Remco as a real rival, and not just a third rider who doesn't pose a threat, they'll attack him.

In any case, Pogacar performs better in the Tour's time trials because he trains for them. They wouldn't lost 5 minutes, they're not Pantani at ITT.
It's naive to think that Remo is only one long time trial away from winning the Tour. First, he has to match Vingegaard in the mountain, or beat him in some stages, not finish behind him in all of them.

To have a chance to win, it's important to be the second better. Few cyclists have won the Tour as a third favorite (without accidents or incidents).

Beating Vingegaard in Catalunya will be a first step, although we already know that Vingegaard improves his performance in the Tour

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

 

[elguapo]

Remco is flying during spring but his inconsistencies show when all the big guns are present. Perhaps he should not race all his races, specially the classics, as his main objectives, to conserve energy and be more prepared in the Tour .

 

[Oldman]

Forget climbing times and W/kg estimates. Look at gaps to rivals instead, because that is much less fluctuating than climbing times. And comparing to Vingegaard and Pogacar, PdB was where he lost the most time that Tour, although how much he was losing on the MTF was fairly stable altogether.

True,
but the power estimates can tell the tale when some of the competitors go to the red zone and other riders modulate based on who they are racing. Remco had the overall win locked; so he was testing himself while the others were also protecting or improving final placings.

 

[Oldman]

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

The World's ITT for Pog should be viewed for what it was: an environmental stress test. He needed to see how the heat, pollution, etc. would affect his prime event. That also could explain the last 10km.
His comfort with his form was there for all to see in the RR.