Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[kingjr]

We know Remco dreams of winning GT. So we know Remco and red Bull are doing whatever they can to reach that goal.
I'm not sure what's so controversial about it. Would you rather have Remco & Red Bull throw in the towel without trying.
The chances of Ullrich beating Armstrong were slim, but I was grateful he tried time and again. And If Ullrich was at his very best during his Bianchi days a miracle might have occured. Alas Ullrich was at his best before the 2000's and never reached his peak again.

In a Tour in the style of the Ullrich/Armstrong years with two long TTs and a Prologue, his chances wouldn't be so bad.

 

[houtdffan]

In a Tour in the style of the Ullrich/Armstrong years with two long TTs and a Prologue, his chances wouldn't be so bad.

and don't forget an epic length TTT

 

[Cycling111]

and don't forget an epic length TTT

There have also been Tours with 250 km mountain stages with 4 mountains.
But no matter how many time trials there are, you can't win the Tour if you can't beat the second rider on any mountain stage.
Without achieving that, there's no chance of dethroning the leader.

Furthermore, Pogacar and Vineggaard are attacking each other. As soon as they see Remco as a real rival, and not just a third rider who doesn't pose a threat, they'll attack him.

In any case, Pogacar performs better in the Tour's time trials because he trains for them. They wouldn't lost 5 minutes, they're not Pantani at ITT.
It's naive to think that Remo is only one long time trial away from winning the Tour. First, he has to match Vingegaard in the mountain, or beat him in some stages, not finish behind him in all of them.

To have a chance to win, it's important to be the second better. Few cyclists have won the Tour as a third favorite (without accidents or incidents).

Beating Vingegaard in Catalunya will be a first step, although we already know that Vingegaard improves his performance in the Tour

 

[houtdffan]

There have also been Tours with 250 km mountain stages with 4 mountains.
But no matter how many time trials there are, you can't win the Tour if you can't beat the second rider on any mountain stage.
Without achieving that, there's no chance of dethroning the leader.

Furthermore, Pogacar and Vineggaard are attacking each other. As soon as they see Remco as a real rival, and not just a third rider who doesn't pose a threat, they'll attack him.

In any case, Pogacar performs better in the Tour's time trials because he trains for them. They wouldn't lost 5 minutes, they're not Pantani at ITT.
It's naive to think that Remo is only one long time trial away from winning the Tour. First, he has to match Vingegaard in the mountain, or beat him in some stages, not finish behind him in all of them.

To have a chance to win, it's important to be the second better. Few cyclists have won the Tour as a third favorite (without accidents or incidents).

Beating Vingegaard in Catalunya will be a first step, although we already know that Vingegaard improves his performance in the Tour

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

 

[elguapo]

Remco is flying during spring but his inconsistencies show when all the big guns are present. Perhaps he should not race all his races, specially the classics, as his main objectives, to conserve energy and be more prepared in the Tour .

 

[Oldman]

Forget climbing times and W/kg estimates. Look at gaps to rivals instead, because that is much less fluctuating than climbing times. And comparing to Vingegaard and Pogacar, PdB was where he lost the most time that Tour, although how much he was losing on the MTF was fairly stable altogether.

True,
but the power estimates can tell the tale when some of the competitors go to the red zone and other riders modulate based on who they are racing. Remco had the overall win locked; so he was testing himself while the others were also protecting or improving final placings.

 

[Oldman]

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

The World's ITT for Pog should be viewed for what it was: an environmental stress test. He needed to see how the heat, pollution, etc. would affect his prime event. That also could explain the last 10km.
His comfort with his form was there for all to see in the RR.

 

[Low is rhe new high]

The World's ITT for Pog should be viewed for what it was: an environmental stress test. He needed to see how the heat, pollution, etc. would affect his prime event. That also could explain the last 10km.
His comfort with his form was there for all to see in the RR.

Wow lame excuses for Pog not winning I thought those were reserved for Remco

 

[Red Rick]

True,
but the power estimates can tell the tale when some of the competitors go to the red zone and other riders modulate based on who they are racing. Remco had the overall win locked; so he was testing himself while the others were also protecting or improving final placings.

I think W/kg are typically more interesting in what it says about the strategy and overall conditions, and who tends to do well in what conditions. Roglic for example is still world class when it's an easy day crawling to the base of the final climb. Pogacar has historically gotten his most dominant performances on hard days when everyone else drops off. PdB I think falls a bit inbetween, where fatigue was really affecting the guys below the top 4-5 roughly but the top 3 were still relatively fresh, plus there was a sizeable tailwind there.

Also for W/kg purposes, I think having a flat or false flat downhill section before the final climb in question is a sizeable factor that gets completely ignored.

 

[Extinction]

I tend to agree. Winning it because he has defended himself well enough after the ITT would be good but not indicative of the kind of step forward needed to get any higher up the podium in TDF than he managed in 2024.

Winning solo on the new MTF would be a big statement performance.

It depends on his weight, if he still needs to shed a few kilos then realistically we won't see him going solo on 8% grades. The uncany thing about Pogacar is that even in early season races with climbs, he always seems to be very light and fit. Remco , who is more like a pitbull, may simply not have the body type to be able to maintain near GT weight throughout the year.

 

[AmRacer]

It depends on his weight, if he still needs to shed a few kilos then realistically we won't see him going solo on 8% grades. The uncany thing about Pogacar is that even in early season races with climbs, he always seems to be very light and fit. Remco , who is more like a pitbull, may simply not have the body type to be able to maintain near GT weight throughput the year.

Weight Weight Weight Weight and Weight again.

Remco's Weight is the most discussed topic ever.

 

[Extinction]

They talk as if Pogacar wasn't a better Tour de France rider than Remco before 2024 and in his early years. They forget that Pogacar already had two Tour de France, two seconds places (Remco one third) and one-week WT races , even against Vingegaard in his prime (Tirreno and Paris-Nice).

I don't know how much Remco will improve, but he hasn't been able to beat Vingegaard in a stage race and has struggled in several Grand Tours, unlike Pogacar, who has finished on the podium in every GT since he was 20.

Some articles are insulting; they treat the readers like they have amnesia.

It's irrilevant what they respectively achieved early in their careers. Remco had a trajectory altering crash and didn't, mistakenly in my opinion, even ride the Tour until 2024. Without that crash, he likely would have ridden the Tour in 2021 and we'd have a whole different set of parameters.

On the other hand, Pogacar considerably upped his already high game in 2024. As we saw, this was not good for Remco who already showed up at the Tour way too late. However, each year is a new chapter to be written, one in which we shall already see if things have remained the same come Liege. If Pog again dominates Evenepoel there, it is unlikely the Belgian will achieve much more at the Tour. Yet I doubt Remco won't be noticeably better this year, otherwise all that money at Bora will have been for naught. Usually, though, big budgets net results and Remco is the type of rider who stands to gain much with increased financial resources. Put differently, I don't think Pog would have become the new Merckx without UAE's financial backing, especially considering his performance leap in 2024.

So the big question is really will Pog be able to maintain his level, or indeed improve upon it, of the last two years? If the latter then there is no hope for the rest. Although I don't see him getting better, as just holding that form will be a major feat.

 

[KoopaCycling]

As much as i have enjoyed seeing Remco in action, and am looking forward to next week. Reality is that the 'real' season start from Catalunya onwards. I do not want to belittle the races so far. They have been great. But the races that truly matter only start then.

Pretty sure Remco and Red Bull know this. Some ppl hype on social media is getting a bit out of hand.

Hopefully remco and red bull will not be judged by all that

 

[fenns]

just noticed this good result for Remco on Sunday - seems he had the measure of Almeida on the climbs

 

[Jan the Man]

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

I agree to a point - but in a GT recovery plays a major role. In a pancake flat TT of 50km on stage 20 I would be convinced Pog would be closer to Remco than the exact same TT on stage 5 or 6 etc,

Likewise if stage 20 of the Tour 2024 was a one day TT Remco probably wins.regardless of climbing - the reality is Pog's.recovery would mitigate the size of the gap in all probability.

In.general though I like.you would.prefer GTs to have.longer TTs.

 

[Extinction]

I agree to a point - but in a GT recovery plays a major role. In a pancake flat TT of 50km on stage 20 I would be convinced Pog would be closer to Remco than the exact same TT on stage 5 or 6 etc,

Likewise if stage 20 of the Tour 2024 was a one day TT Remco probably wins.regardless of climbing - the reality is Pog's.recovery would mitigate the size of the gap in all probability.

In.general though I like.you would.prefer GTs to have.longer TTs.

Let's say Remco is able to keep up with Pogi in the mountains, which entirely remains to be seen, mind you, a long TT of 50 km could be decisive. In any case, with this generation long ITTs should really come back, as in two 50 km ones, not the ridiculously short ones of late.

 

[Jan the Man]

Let's say Remco is able to keep up with Pogi in the mountains, which entirely remains to be seen, mind you, the a long TT of 50 km could be decisive. In any case, with this generation long ITTs should really come back, as in two 50 km ones, not the ridiculously short ones of late.

Of course if he keeps up in the mountains he wins. But that also means he is the strongest rider in the race.

I agree on TTs but I prefer a long flat TT 55km ish and a slightly shorter but punchier hillier TT of 40km ish.

Also.would like a long mountain stage- dislike the habit of these very short mountain stages

 

[houtdffan]

I agree to a point - but in a GT recovery plays a major role. In a pancake flat TT of 50km on stage 20 I would be convinced Pog would be closer to Remco than the exact same TT on stage 5 or 6 etc,

Likewise if stage 20 of the Tour 2024 was a one day TT Remco probably wins.regardless of climbing - the reality is Pog's.recovery would mitigate the size of the gap in all probability.

In.general though I like.you would.prefer GTs to have.longer TTs.

I'd like to get back to a prologue, early long TTT (~75km) and ITT (~65km), followed by the stage 19 long ITT (~60km) where recovery really comes into play

If the best climber does not win, tell that climber to ride his TT bike some more so he does not lose so much time

 

[AmRacer]

I'd like to get back to a prologue, early long TTT (~75km) and ITT (~65km), followed by the stage 19 long ITT (~60km) where recovery really comes into play

If the best climber does not win, tell that climber to ride his TT bike some more so he does not lose so much time

If we add 3 mountain stages +200km with at least 3-4 mountains per stage, and 3 MTF stages.

 

[Cycling111]

Pog has NEVER done a successful long ITT. He trained last year at the worlds and still was absolutely mauled. Gap ballooned in the final 10km.

Pog is not Pantani at the ITT. He's more akin to Contador. One of the best TTers overall but rather inconsistent

Giro d'Italia 2024 Stage 14 (ITT) results

Giro d'Italia 2024 Stage 14 (ITT) from Castiglione delle Stiviere to Desenzano del Garda was won by Filippo Ganna before Tadej PogaÄar and Thymen Arensman. Tadej PogaÄar was leading the general classification.

www.procyclingstats.com

World Championships ME - ITT 2022 Time Trial results

World Championships ME - ITT 2022 was won by Tobias Foss before Stefan Küng and Remco Evenepoel.

www.procyclingstats.com

Looking at the Giro time trial, do you think that with 20 more kilometers he would lose 5 minutes?


The reality is that Pogacar performs better in time trials during the Tour because it's the only time he puts in the effort to train beforehand.
I also remind you that in PDBF there were quite a few kilometers of flat terrain, and he finished just 1 second behind Dumoulin in the first sector. Pogcarar always performs much better in Tour time trials. He'll never lose 9 minutes. On the other hand, Remco has lost 9 minutes againts him in the mountains.

That's without considering that in 2024, Remco wasn´t Pogacar's rival. If Remco had been a threat, he surely attacked him and would have gained more time.

And since you like to emphasize facts, the reality is that the only GT Remco has finished with Pogacar, he ended at the samen distance as Daniel Felipe Martinez in the Giro.
That's what happens when you try to distort reality based on data taken out of context. Pogacar would lose 9 minutes to Remco in a long ITT in the Tour, and Remco is the same distance behind Pogacar as Daniel Felipe Martinez is. I don't know if it's worth getting into this kind of pointless debate.
If we have to look at some one-day time trials to say that, then we'll have to say that Remco is as far behind Pogacar as Daniel Felipe Martinez; the minutes in the general classification say that.
The irony is that the latter has indeed happened; what you say is based on biased facts because you are not taking into account that Pogacar has always finished closer to him in the Tour's ITT.

And you have to keep in mind that the current mountain stages are 150 kilometers long. Do you know how much Remco would lose on mountain stages like before, with 250km and 4 categorized climbs?

Don't ask for so much from the past, because perhaps it's Remco who isn't suited to those routes with that mountain.

 

[hayneplane]

I'd like to get back to a prologue, early long TTT (~75km) and ITT (~65km), followed by the stage 19 long ITT (~60km) where recovery really comes into play

If the best climber does not win, tell that climber to ride his TT bike some more so he does not lose so much time

The idea of a 75km TTT is hideous. Don’t mind the other ideas. A prologue can calm the nerves of the whole peloton and reduce the week 1 crashes by setting some small GC gaps.

I would want the last ITT to precede the final major mountain stage giving a chance for the climbers to retrieve gaps via long range multi mountain raids.

 

[houtdffan]

If we add 3 mountain stages +200km with at least 3-4 mountains per stage, and 3 MTF stages.

Absolutely. And 2 stages should be of the same difficulty of Morzine 1983 / Sestrieres 1992

 

[Oldman]

I think W/kg are typically more interesting in what it says about the strategy and overall conditions, and who tends to do well in what conditions. Roglic for example is still world class when it's an easy day crawling to the base of the final climb. Pogacar has historically gotten his most dominant performances on hard days when everyone else drops off. PdB I think falls a bit inbetween, where fatigue was really affecting the guys below the top 4-5 roughly but the top 3 were still relatively fresh, plus there was a sizeable tailwind there.

Also for W/kg purposes, I think having a flat or false flat downhill section before the final climb in question is a sizeable factor that gets completely ignored.

The last point also can represent the relative protection a well-placed rider with good leadout experiences on a climb. Pogacar generally doesn't fight for space because he recognizes when Jonas, for example; has to initiate an attack. He's good at using the aggression of other teams and rolls onto attackers easily. Makes the counterpunch more sustainable, IMO.

 

[houtdffan]

Giro d'Italia 2024 Stage 14 (ITT) results

Giro d'Italia 2024 Stage 14 (ITT) from Castiglione delle Stiviere to Desenzano del Garda was won by Filippo Ganna before Tadej PogaÄar and Thymen Arensman. Tadej PogaÄar was leading the general classification.

www.procyclingstats.com

World Championships ME - ITT 2022 Time Trial results

World Championships ME - ITT 2022 was won by Tobias Foss before Stefan Küng and Remco Evenepoel.

www.procyclingstats.com

Looking at the Giro time trial, do you think that with 20 more kilometers he would lose 5 minutes?


The reality is that Pogacar performs better in time trials during the Tour because it's the only time he puts in the effort to train beforehand.
I also remind you that in PDBF there were quite a few kilometers of flat terrain, and he finished just 1 second behind Dumoulin in the first sector. Pogcarar always performs much better in Tour time trials. He'll never lose 9 minutes. On the other hand, Remco has lost 9 minutes againts him in the mountains.

That's without considering that in 2024, Remco wasn´t Pogacar's rival. If Remco had been a threat, he surely attacked him and would have gained more time.

And since you like to emphasize facts, the reality is that the only GT Remco has finished with Pogacar, he ended at the samen distance as Daniel Felipe Martinez in the Giro.
That's what happens when you try to distort reality based on data taken out of context. Pogacar would lose 9 minutes to Remco in a long ITT in the Tour, and Remco is the same distance behind Pogacar as Daniel Felipe Martinez is. I don't know if it's worth getting into this kind of pointless debate.
If we have to look at some one-day time trials to say that, then we'll have to say that Remco is as far behind Pogacar as Daniel Felipe Martinez; the minutes in the general classification say that.
The irony is that the latter has indeed happened; what you say is based on biased facts because you are not taking into account that Pogacar has always finished closer to him in the Tour's ITT.

And you have to keep in mind that the current mountain stages are 150 kilometers long. Do you know how much Remco would lose on mountain stages like before, with 250km and 4 categorized climbs?

Don't ask for so much from the past, because perhaps it's Remco who isn't suited to those routes with that mountain.

1. Remco is a better TTer than Pog. That second ITT that Pog won was also short at 30 km

2. The gaps explode once you get past 40 km, as we've seen at the world championships, the only place where we have long ITTs any more

3. Of course mountain stages should be harder. Nobody has suggested otherwise. If Remco cannot win a GT with 2 long ITTs, he needs to practice his climbing more

 

[Oldman]

Wow lame excuses for Pog not winning I thought those were reserved for Remco

Not an excuse....pretty much telegraphed that to anyone paying attention. How much TT work do you think he put in? Remco had to win that. Pogacar knew Remco had to win it. The RR was the biggest prize all along, wouldn't you agree? Pogi made no excuses; nor do I.