Re: Re:
It is a devilishly hard course --258 k with 4600-some meters of climbing. However, the climbs could suit a one-day rider like Alaphilippe because the Gnadenwald on the long lap is short and steep at 10%/3k, while the main "short lap" climb is long and relatively gentle at 5.7%/8km, and the final climb (done once if I am reading the map correctly) is short and steep at 11%/2.8 km. So I think he has a chance if he can hold his form all season long.
He won the polka dots by being aggressive, not by out dragging the pure climbers. He probably couldn't do that over a GT, but on his day, I think he can hang. I hope he does, but I'd also love to see a climber win the WC.
Koronin said:Red Rick said:I wouldn't consider Alaphilippe a favorite based on how insanely hard the course is, and not on how he has no results in one day races.
Truthfully I'm not sure Alaphilippe is a good enough climber to be in the mix, however, I'd put his chances of winning/good placing over a GT GC specialist for this race as you have to be good at one day races and understand how to race a one day race. Nibali, D Martin, and Valverde still have to be the top favorites as they are all very good one day racers (Valverde is probably a classics specialist more than he's anything else) and are all good at stage races.
It is a devilishly hard course --258 k with 4600-some meters of climbing. However, the climbs could suit a one-day rider like Alaphilippe because the Gnadenwald on the long lap is short and steep at 10%/3k, while the main "short lap" climb is long and relatively gentle at 5.7%/8km, and the final climb (done once if I am reading the map correctly) is short and steep at 11%/2.8 km. So I think he has a chance if he can hold his form all season long.
He won the polka dots by being aggressive, not by out dragging the pure climbers. He probably couldn't do that over a GT, but on his day, I think he can hang. I hope he does, but I'd also love to see a climber win the WC.