Teams & Riders Julian Alaphilippe Discussion Thread

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Can't choose between Alaphilippe and Valverde

Unpopular opinion but I think neither will even come close to gold

I don't think so either. Alaphilippe flatters to deceive causr barely any one day races punish his lack of world class climbing, but I think tomorrow is so hard it will punish both Valverde and Alaphilippe

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Can't choose between Alaphilippe and Valverde

Unpopular opinion but I think neither will even come close to gold

I don't think so either. Alaphilippe flatters to deceive causr barely any one day races punish his lack of world class climbing, but I think tomorrow is so hard it will punish both Valverde and Alaphilippe

Somebody has to be willing to go out there and punish them, though. Be that Colombia, or the Dutch, or... well I can’t think of anyone else with as strong a climbing squad as France. The Brits maybe, if they had Froome and G along. Slovenia at a push.

Alaphilippe is definitely one of the 2 or 3 in best form right now, and Valverde is in good form and “can never be written off,” but on such a hard to control course I can see it being one of those days where it doesn’t work out for the favourites.

It’s been said before, but it’s very rare for the clear favorite to go out and win a one-day bike race. There are too many variables. But the sensible bet right now is one or other of JA and AV.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Can't choose between Alaphilippe and Valverde

Unpopular opinion but I think neither will even come close to gold

Alaphilippe will have to be in the form of his life to stand a chance. The parcours is too difficult.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Can't choose between Alaphilippe and Valverde

Unpopular opinion but I think neither will even come close to gold

Alaphilippe will have to be in the form of his life to stand a chance. The parcours is too difficult.

Yes it's hardly Fleche Wallone. I think Bardet has as much chance.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Can't choose between Alaphilippe and Valverde

Unpopular opinion but I think neither will even come close to gold

I don't think so either. Alaphilippe flatters to deceive causr barely any one day races punish his lack of world class climbing, but I think tomorrow is so hard it will punish both Valverde and Alaphilippe

Somebody has to be willing to go out there and punish them, though. Be that Colombia, or the Dutch, or... well I can’t think of anyone else with as strong a climbing squad as France. The Brits maybe, if they had Froome and G along. Slovenia at a push.

Alaphilippe is definitely one of the 2 or 3 in best form right now, and Valverde is in good form and “can never be written off,” but on such a hard to control course I can see it being one of those days where it doesn’t work out for the favourites.

It’s been said before, but it’s very rare for the clear favorite to go out and win a one-day bike race. There are too many variables. But the sensible bet right now is one or other of JA and AV.

That's what you say, we'll see tomorrow who is right

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

[

It’s been said before, but it’s very rare for the clear favorite to go out and win a one-day bike race. There are too many variables. But the sensible bet right now is one or other of JA and AV.

That's what you say, we'll see tomorrow who is right

Well that’s hardly fair. You haven’t said who will win, only 2 riders who won’t. And I haven’t said either of them will win, just that they’re 2 of the better choices for a bet at this stage.

Now, if you’re willing to throw a name or two out there of possible winners, then we can “see tomorrow who is right,” but so far you haven’t given many ways that you can be wrong.

I think it’s very unlikely that neither Alaf nor Bala will finish top 10. If I had to pick a podium, one or both of them would be on it. What’s your prediction?

 

[Midnightfright]

I agree it is going to be a super hard race to control. Could absolutely see it playing it to the hands for the stronger nations secondary leaders

 

[Leinster]

Re:

I agree it is going to be a super hard race to control. Could absolutely see it playing it to the hands for the stronger nations secondary leaders

Moscon, Bardet, Kelderman podium?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

[

It’s been said before, but it’s very rare for the clear favorite to go out and win a one-day bike race. There are too many variables. But the sensible bet right now is one or other of JA and AV.

That's what you say, we'll see tomorrow who is right

Well that’s hardly fair. You haven’t said who will win, only 2 riders who won’t. And I haven’t said either of them will win, just that they’re 2 of the better choices for a bet at this stage.

Now, if you’re willing to throw a name or two out there of possible winners, then we can “see tomorrow who is right,” but so far you haven’t given many ways that you can be wrong.

I think it’s very unlikely that neither Alaf nor Bala will finish top 10. If I had to pick a podium, one or both of them would be on it. What’s your prediction?

Well, the discussion wasn't really about who we think are the favorites but only about whether we think alaphilippe and bala are the favorites. To clarify my statement, if neither of them win but they both are among the strongest riders I admit you were right as in that case they would have been the best bets. What I think however is that guys like moscon, Pinot, poels, or others who compared to your favorites have been flying under the radar will climb clearly better

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Can't choose between Alaphilippe and Valverde

Unpopular opinion but I think neither will even come close to gold

I don't think so either. Alaphilippe flatters to deceive causr barely any one day races punish his lack of world class climbing, but I think tomorrow is so hard it will punish both Valverde and Alaphilippe

Somebody has to be willing to go out there and punish them, though. Be that Colombia, or the Dutch, or... well I can’t think of anyone else with as strong a climbing squad as France. The Brits maybe, if they had Froome and G along. Slovenia at a push.

Alaphilippe is definitely one of the 2 or 3 in best form right now, and Valverde is in good form and “can never be written off,” but on such a hard to control course I can see it being one of those days where it doesn’t work out for the favourites.

It’s been said before, but it’s very rare for the clear favorite to go out and win a one-day bike race. There are too many variables. But the sensible bet right now is one or other of JA and AV.

Except for the fact that Valverde is used to being the clear favorite in many races he enters and still finding ways to win them. He's won 4 Fleche Wallones and 3 LBL's as the clear favorite along with several stages races (mostly in Spain) as the clear favorite.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

I was obviously wrong about Valverde but Alaphilippe's performance was just like I feared it would be. The racing today actually even really suited him as it was pretty easy but at the end of the day he just isn't as good of a climber as the guys on the podium.

 

[Velolover2]

Ala's limit is 2 km walls.

A 3 km murito is too much for him. I've always seen him as neo-Rebellin rather than Valverde.

 

[Red Rick]

Gap of 43 seconds at the finish. It should have been super obvious this one was way too long for him.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

Ala's limit is 2 km walls.

A 3 km murito is too much for him. I've always seen him as neo-Rebellin rather than Valverde.

He's much faster than Rebellin in a flat sprint, though. Thus he's likely to have many more wins.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Ala's limit is 2 km walls.

A 3 km murito is too much for him. I've always seen him as neo-Rebellin rather than Valverde.

He's much faster than Rebellin in a flat sprint, though. Thus he's likely to have many more wins.

>90's< Rebellin wasn't a slowpoke in a reduced sprint.

I'd consider him faster than Ala back then.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Ala's limit is 2 km walls.

A 3 km murito is too much for him. I've always seen him as neo-Rebellin rather than Valverde.

He's much faster than Rebellin in a flat sprint, though. Thus he's likely to have many more wins.

>90's< Rebellin wasn't a slowpoke in a reduced sprint.

I'd consider him faster than Ala back then.

I have to disagree. Losing to Jalabert or Bartoli is one thing, but the guy kept losing to really slow guys like Heras, Tafi, Furlan, Casagrande....there's a reason he had so few wins in the 90s.

For one week in 97 he took 2 big wins in reduced sprints (his biggest wins until 2004) using the same trick of going for a ludicrously long sprint in a strong tailwind, but after that everyone else was wise to it and it never worked again.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Gap of 43 seconds at the finish. It should have been super obvious this one was way too long for him.

He should have tell his teammates.

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

Ala's limit is 2 km walls.

A 3 km murito is too much for him. I've always seen him as neo-Rebellin rather than Valverde.

Rebellin was a way better climber, at his age he was able to finish in the top ten in GTs.
Anyway I'm still confident he can improve, we have a lot of case of puncheur that improved a lot in climbing in the second part of the career.

 

[yaco]

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

Gap of 43 seconds at the finish. It should have been super obvious this one was way too long for him.

He should have tell his teammates.

I doubt he knew before he blew up...

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Gap of 43 seconds at the finish. It should have been super obvious this one was way too long for him.

He should have tell his teammates.

I doubt he knew before he blew up...

Bardet certainly didn't.

 

[can3478]

Before

Training - https://twitter.com/stade2/status/1046119852115730433

After

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Julian Alaphilippe

I love how Pinot is awkwardly standing behind them. That's so relatable

 

[Valv.Piti]

I really got a lot of respect for the way PInot rode. I dont think he would have made the split, but he would have been kinda close and he would definititely have had a better opportunity than Bardet of beating Alejandro.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Alaphalippe has made a considerable improvement in his climbing in 2018 - I always suspected this course would be too hard for him but if he continues his rate of development in climbing than he has a real chance at the 2020 Olympics.

I doubt it.

The Tokyo Olympics last main climb is like 6km at 11% average topping out at 30km from the finish. The groups will be ripped to shreds.