He will be a rider with characteristics similar to Valverde. He will not even get close to Valverde's palmares.
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Re:
I hope he takes a (long) break after ATOC and maybe rides the Vuelta. He is holding this form since the end of March/early April. No rider can sustain his form from April through July. But on the other hand, he riders for EQS, so I wouldn't be surprised, if they send him to the Tour like they did with Kwiatkowski before.
Dazed and Confused said:
I hope he takes a (long) break after ATOC and maybe rides the Vuelta. He is holding this form since the end of March/early April. No rider can sustain his form from April through July. But on the other hand, he riders for EQS, so I wouldn't be surprised, if they send him to the Tour like they did with Kwiatkowski before.
Re:
This. It would take a lot for him to match Valverde's palmares. He is quite impressive of course.SeriousSam said:
Re: Re:
That's weird to say about such a young rider. There are probably 3 guys of about his age who will turn out to be the big guys of their generation, and it's impossible to be sure who those will be. But we cán be sure there are guys out there who will match Valverde's palmares, maybe not this generation but 5 years later, who knows... It's not that Valverde has an unbeatable palmares, it's just that we don't know yet who is good enough to beat it.
Angliru said:
That's weird to say about such a young rider. There are probably 3 guys of about his age who will turn out to be the big guys of their generation, and it's impossible to be sure who those will be. But we cán be sure there are guys out there who will match Valverde's palmares, maybe not this generation but 5 years later, who knows... It's not that Valverde has an unbeatable palmares, it's just that we don't know yet who is good enough to beat it.
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If he has the same legs as Valverde, he will have to be a *** to end up with a worse palmares.Angliru said:
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That some rider will equal Valverde is a completely different claim than that some specific rider, like Alaphilippe, will. It is the difference between saying that someone will pick the right numbers to win the lottery and that you will.
NairoQ said:
That some rider will equal Valverde is a completely different claim than that some specific rider, like Alaphilippe, will. It is the difference between saying that someone will pick the right numbers to win the lottery and that you will.
Re:
IF he has similar characteristics, what about him will make it so he doesn't "even get close" to AV's palmares?
IMO it's to early to even say he has similar characteristics to AV. We've seen that they share some; but we can't judge his climbing after one stage in a week long stage race with a weak field.
SeriousSam said:
IF he has similar characteristics, what about him will make it so he doesn't "even get close" to AV's palmares?
IMO it's to early to even say he has similar characteristics to AV. We've seen that they share some; but we can't judge his climbing after one stage in a week long stage race with a weak field.
Re: Re:
Indeed, but what was said above is: "he will NOT", and I believe there's no reason to say that, because if you say it about this guy, you have to say it about every guy. And saying it about every rider is wrong.
SeriousSam said:
Indeed, but what was said above is: "he will NOT", and I believe there's no reason to say that, because if you say it about this guy, you have to say it about every guy. And saying it about every rider is wrong.
I think a proper 'discussion thread' -title for this wonderkid has become very much appropriate by now.
Re: Re:
Suppose some rider has a chance of 5% to match Valverde. I think saying "he will not equal Valverde" is justified with such a low probability. If not, make it even smaller and nothing important changes in the following calculation (only the number of riders).
Take just 20 riders that could match Valverde, each having a 5% chance to do so. The chance at least one of them will equal Valverde is about 64%. So when talking about those 20 individually, we are justified saying they won't do it, for each of them, yet conceding that at leas tone of them will likely do it.
If "he will not" is asserting there is no chance, you're right. But I wasn't saying that.
No, it's still right, that's the point I was making. We say "he will not" when it is sufficiently unlikely that he will, as opposed to it being impossible. Nothing is impossible.NairoQ said:
Suppose some rider has a chance of 5% to match Valverde. I think saying "he will not equal Valverde" is justified with such a low probability. If not, make it even smaller and nothing important changes in the following calculation (only the number of riders).
Take just 20 riders that could match Valverde, each having a 5% chance to do so. The chance at least one of them will equal Valverde is about 64%. So when talking about those 20 individually, we are justified saying they won't do it, for each of them, yet conceding that at leas tone of them will likely do it.
If "he will not" is asserting there is no chance, you're right. But I wasn't saying that.
Re: Re:
Okay, I agree. But what I've seen from him this season, at this age, is something I haven't seen in a long time. This is why I believe he's got a lot more then 5% chance to become a real top cyclist, but we'll see.
SeriousSam said:No, it's still right, that's the point I was making. We say "he will not" when it is sufficiently unlikely that he will, as opposed to it being impossible. Nothing is impossible.
Suppose some rider has a chance of 5% to match Valverde. I think saying "he will not equal Valverde" is justified with such a low probability. If not, make it even smaller and nothing important changes in the following calculation (only the number of riders).
Take just 20 riders that could match Valverde, each having a 5% chance to do so. The chance at least one of them will equal Valverde is about 64%. So when talking about those 20 individually, we are justified saying they won't do it, for each of them, yet conceding that at leas tone of them will likely do it.
If "he will not" is asserting there is no chance, you're right. But I wasn't saying that.
Okay, I agree. But what I've seen from him this season, at this age, is something I haven't seen in a long time. This is why I believe he's got a lot more then 5% chance to become a real top cyclist, but we'll see.
Kwiatkowski v.1.1 for sure.
Also I see his brother had a decent result the other day
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tour_de_Picardie_2015_Stage_2_Fleurines
Also I see his brother had a decent result the other day
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tour_de_Picardie_2015_Stage_2_Fleurines
Re: julian alaphilippe
National Champs this year or next. And a GT start this year. Will win the Eneco Tour, before breaking away with Tim Wellens at Il Lombardia. Sadly Wellens will win.
National Champs this year or next. And a GT start this year. Will win the Eneco Tour, before breaking away with Tim Wellens at Il Lombardia. Sadly Wellens will win.
Maybe this was posted somewhere else, but he was diagnosed with mono after the Worlds. That explains his poor performances in Canada and Richmond.
Re: Re:
. I see at least 8 TdF wins on the horizon .
That's great news! His body will undergo significant changes and he'll come back stronger than everHugo Koblet said:
. I see at least 8 TdF wins on the horizon .Re: Re:
lololTonton said:That's great news! His body will undergo significant changes and he'll come back stronger than everHugo Koblet said:
Yep, It takes a while to get back from that illness. Probably won't see much of him until the second half of the season.
It depends. From my own experience individuals respond rather differently to the disease. If he already got the disease around june (thats when his performance level dropped drastically) he could be cured soon enough if he is lucky. If he is not, he could be affected for several months and then he will likely have a sub par season next year.
Hard to say.
Hard to say.
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