La Flèche Wallonne, April 23rd, 199K

[trevim]

Can the forum help me out here with regard to Moreno. His results over the last two years look mediocre. And yet he is joint favourite to win??? Any comments will be most welcome!

He's currently the 13th best rider in the world in the CQ rankings.
Also he's the defending winner.
I'm not sure what you find mediocre there.

 

[CyclingEnthusiast]

Can the forum help me out here with regard to Moreno. His results over the last two years look mediocre. And yet he is joint favourite to win??? Any comments will be most welcome!

He won last year with an even 'quieter' build up so naturally he's a favourite as he has shown he has the ability to win it

 

[Pippo_San]

That was some freakin epic stuff.

 

[Panda Claws]

Vanendert might not ride. Appearantly his knee is causing a lot more pain/issues than was expected.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

He's currently the 13th best rider in the world in the CQ rankings.
Also he's the defending winner.
I'm not sure what you find mediocre there.

Ok thanks for the quick replies and I love the CQ rankings that were introduced to me by Netserk. Far superior to UCI rankings and more detailed. But essentially I still fail to see why Moreno is still second favourite. Surely there are many more superior riders ???? Help!

 

[Fight.The.Power]

He won last year with an even 'quieter' build up so naturally he's a favourite as he has shown he has the ability to win it

Thanks for the post. But you see many winners due to the fact that it was a suprise that they had the ability to win (kreuziger last year at AGR) . Moreno no longer has the advantage of suprise so therefore it should be much harder for him to win? I do hope you understand my crazy logic but thanks for posting!

 

[Jspear]

Ok thanks for the quick replies and I love the CQ rankings that were introduced to me by Netserk. Far superior to UCI rankings and more detailed. But essentially I still fail to see why Moreno is still second favourite. Surely there are many more superior riders ???? Help!

This course suits his abilities. Certain riders who would usually be more of a threat aren't super hot right now (this ups his advantage.) Jrod is probably still hurt from Amstel. Bentacur and Martin have different problems. Nibali's form is unknown. The poll results here are simply people's opinions....maybe he isn't the 2nd best guy to win, but he is certainly one of the favorites.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

OK well I think what you say is fair enough. I am aware of Purito and Betancyr issues. What is wrong with Dan Martin for example?

But I think I raised a good point in that this year Moreno will be marked out of it. On a straight race up the Mur, he will be happy with a top ten wont he??

 

[VeloHuman]

OK well I think what you say is fair enough. I am aware of Purito and Betancyr issues. What is wrong with Dan Martin for example?

But I think I raised a good point in that this year Moreno will be marked out of it. On a straight race up the Mur, he will be happy with a top ten wont he??

Martin complained of knee issues at Amstel, and he pulled out of that race. He, Betancur, and Rodriguez might be favored over Moreno if they were known to be healthy but nobody is sure. That leaves Moreno, Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Valverde, maybe Ulissi. Of those, Moreno is one of the most proven winners on short, steep uphill finishes. Go watch Vuelta highlights if last year's edition of this race isn't enough.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Great response with thanks. I think you raise some good points. Another guy where my knowledge is lacking is Ulissi. Cannot remember him shining? Back to the stats to research!

 

[The Hitch]

agreed

Lol.

10c

 

[willbick]

Moreno is fav coz he's one of the best riders in the world on steep finishes, won the race last year pretty comfortably and appears to be in good shape. Simples

 

[The Hitch]

Thanks for the post. But you see many winners due to the fact that it was a suprise that they had the ability to win (kreuziger last year at AGR) . Moreno no longer has the advantage of suprise so therefore it should be much harder for him to win? I do hope you understand my crazy logic but thanks for posting!

Moreno didn't win because of surprise. He didnt get a headstart in the break or anything. He won by taking everyone on mano a mano and beating them. +according to Dan Martin he may have even had a puncture a few k before the mur.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Moreno didn't win because of surprise. He didnt get a headstart in the break or anything. He won by taking everyone on mano a mano and beating them. +according to Dan Martin he may have even had a puncture a few k before the mur.

Just watched the replay. It is as you say. Looked pretty unbeatable. Strange though that he has not replicated that kind of form anywhere else ?

 

[Jspear]

Just watched the replay. It is as you say. Looked pretty unbeatable. Strange though that he has not replicated that kind of form anywhere else ?

What about 2013 Vuelta? He was pretty impressive there. Look at stages 4 and 9.
Edit: He was also 5th overall in the 2012 Vuelta.

 

[shalgo]

Strange though that he has not replicated that kind of form anywhere else ?

Two stage wins in the Vuelta last year (plus two seconds and a third), third overall in the Dauphine, sixth at Lombardia, etc.--I'd say he showed similar form many times last year.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Two stage wins in the Vuelta last year (plus two seconds and a third), third overall in the Dauphine, sixth at Lombardia, etc.--I'd say he showed similar form many times last year.

Yeh I saw that and should have qualified that in my answer to The Hitch earlier. But essentially these one-day classics are a completely different animal IMO. And Moreno has only one success in his palmares which is last years Fleche Wallone. But the way he won last year, it is at the very least surprising that he has not won other one day events.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Thanks for the post, but dont know how to put two quotes on one response !!

 

[Fight.The.Power]

What about 2013 Vuelta? He was pretty impressive there. Look at stages 4 and 9.
Edit: He was also 5th overall in the 2012 Vuelta.

Thanks for the post. Please see last response. I need to learn how to put two quotes on one message!

 

[shalgo]

Yeh I saw that and should have qualified that in my answer to The Hitch earlier. But essentially these one-day classics are a completely different animal IMO. And Moreno has only one success in his palmares which is last years Fleche Wallone. But the way he won last year, it is at the very least surprising that he has not won other one day events.

I agree with your point in general regarding Classics vs. GT stages, but the Fleche is another beast. It is much shorter than a true Classic, and virtually always involves a large group arriving at the bottom of a short, steep finishing climb. As such, it is not so different from a common type of Vuelta stage.

 

[richo36]

I would love to see one of the teams without an outright favorite to have some guts and try and tear the race apart. Love to see them not put anyone in the break. Sit back and relax for the first 80 km. Then when they hit the cote de bellaire set a a really high tempo and just keep the high tempo going for as long as possible. sacrifice 6 members of your team in the hope of splitting the race apart. Ideally if they can keep a high tempo for 40-60 km, bringing the break back to the peloton so that with 60 km to go the race is all together and it has been a high pace for the first 130-140 km. laying the platform for attacks over the next 20 km and putting pressure on bmc and katusha. Something different to just sending someone up the road for katusha and bmc to chase down with 2 km to go.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I would love to see one of the teams without an outright favorite to have some guts and try and tear the race apart. Love to see them not put anyone in the break. Sit back and relax for the first 80 km. Then when they hit the cote de bellaire set a a really high tempo and just keep the high tempo going for as long as possible. sacrifice 6 members of your team in the hope of splitting the race apart. Ideally if they can keep a high tempo for 40-60 km, bringing the break back to the peloton so that with 60 km to go the race is all together and it has been a high pace for the first 130-140 km. laying the platform for attacks over the next 20 km and putting pressure on bmc and katusha. Something different to just sending someone up the road for katusha and bmc to chase down with 2 km to go.

Yes, but it will not happen. The agreement will be a bunch sprint up Mur de Huy.

 

[CycloAndy]

Depends, if they go fast from the bottom I think Moreno will take it, if it starts off easy it is Gilbert for me. Don't think anyone dares to go early, so most likely Gilbert

Katusha have the perfect team for this. Send Rodriguez early to burn out Gilbert then let Moreno finish it off.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

@Dazed&Confused: while I share your criticism on the conservative racing that seems to be standard at this race, I believe that picture is of one of the first passages on the Mur, not of the final sprint.

 

[Butterhead]

I hope and cheers for Moreno.