La Flèche Wallonne: April 24th, 2019

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Adam Yates who is in really great shape will win IF he goes around the 400 meter mark. Purito style.

If he waits for 150-200 m, he will definitely lose.

Honestly this is quite fascinating cause it goes against the idea that you have the same energy expenditure over an x period of time no matter how you distribute it.

I see it more as a psychological phenomenon than a physical one. Some people always have room for a dessert no matter how much they have eaten beforehand.

Mur is also a somewhat of a staring contest.

 

[Oude Geuze]

Re: Re:

Adam Yates who is in really great shape will win IF he goes around the 400 meter mark. Purito style.

If he waits for 150-200 m, he will definitely lose.

Honestly this is quite fascinating cause it goes against the idea that you have the same energy expenditure over an x period of time no matter how you distribute it.

I see it more as a psychological phenomenon than a physical one. Some people always have room for a dessert no matter how much they have eaten beforehand.

Mur is also a somewhat of a staring contest.

It’s all about the distribution of your metabolic energy systems. Some people are vo2 monsters, and can go incredibly hard for 5 minutes with a highly developed anaerobic system and a mix of fast and slow twitch fibers. Others have more of a sprint, creatine kinase heavy and can go for 10-15 seconds, and different mixes in between. Depending on where you are at that scale determines when to go. In cycling however, due to drafting, its almost always better to hold off and wait. An ITT up the same hill could see very different winners, tactics play a huge part. Also, they’ve ridden 200k in hilly terrain before the selection which excludes a lot of athlete builds

Sorry for stating the obvious for a lot of people.

I root for Valverde, always cool to see the stripes on top

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

Adam Yates who is in really great shape will win IF he goes around the 400 meter mark. Purito style.

If he waits for 150-200 m, he will definitely lose.

Honestly this is quite fascinating cause it goes against the idea that you have the same energy expenditure over an x period of time no matter how you distribute it.

I see it more as a psychological phenomenon than a physical one. Some people always have room for a dessert no matter how much they have eaten beforehand.

Mur is also a somewhat of a staring contest.

It’s all about the distribution of your metabolic energy systems. Some people are vo2 monsters, and can go incredibly hard for 5 minutes with a highly developed anaerobic system and a mix of fast and slow twitch fibers. Others have more of a sprint, creatine kinase heavy and can go for 10-15 seconds, and different mixes in between. Depending on where you are at that scale determines when to go. In cycling however, due to drafting, its almost always better to hold off and wait. An ITT up the same hill could see very different winners, tactics play a huge part. Also, they’ve ridden 200k in hilly terrain before the selection which excludes a lot of athlete builds

Sorry for stating the obvious for a lot of people.

I root for Valverde, always cool to see the stripes on top

It's not merely about drafting or VO2max and other physical traits though, but also alot about moral and psychology, as Velolover already stated. If you go early, even if you can create a gap and take "drafting" completely out of the equation, there is still a big difference in the way both riders (the one jumping early and the one waiting) experience their jump. The rider going later, will be at peak output, at the moment that the rider in front is slowing down.

Let's say both riders are equally strong, with the same physical traits, have the same amount of energy to delve into. You could conclude that they would both end up at the same point, regardless of how they time their jump. With that difference that the rider jumping later, has the psychologic advantage as he is closing in on his adversary. The exact oposite is true for the other rider. Unless the first rider has timed his jump perfectly, so he can cross the finishline before losing too much pace, i think it is always more interesting to wait longer and come from behind. Regardless of drafting.

 

[Koronin]

I went with Adam Yates. Alaphilippe is past his peak. He was peaking for MSR. Valverde is in horrible form. With that said I think it's more than possible for a break to take it this year. With the form Valverde doesn't have Movistar won't do any work and will leave it up to other teams and I can't see any team wanting to pull for Quickstep forcing them to do the work. UAE doesn't have the strength and who knows what kind of form D Martin has. This finish is not good for Fuglsang. Not sure if M-S is will to take the chance of pulling.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

UAE doesn't have the strength

Why do you think so?
COSTA Rui
HENAO Sergio
MARTIN Dan
MORI Manuele
POGAČAR Tadej
SUTHERLAND Rory
ULISSI Diego
Pretty good team I would say. Maybe even more than just "pretty". There are actually 5 riders who could finish in top10 on a good day and it wouldn't be a big surprise.

 

[Alexandre B.]

I think this is the year when the winner will come from a small select group of favorites at the foot of Mur de Huy.

 

[Sestriere]

This Alaphilippe guy has to be pretty good if he can make the race on Sunday (not riding to his strengths) and be one of the two best riders on the hills while I'm being told left, right and center that he is past his peak..

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

UAE doesn't have the strength

Why do you think so?
COSTA Rui
HENAO Sergio
MARTIN Dan
MORI Manuele
POGAČAR Tadej
SUTHERLAND Rory
ULISSI Diego
Pretty good team I would say. Maybe even more than just "pretty". There are actually 5 riders who could finish in top10 on a good day and it wouldn't be a big surprise.

Based on the non results the team typically gets.

 

[hammerthaim]

Betancur will win this bike race.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Re: Re:

UAE doesn't have the strength

Why do you think so?
COSTA Rui
HENAO Sergio
MARTIN Dan
MORI Manuele
POGAČAR Tadej
SUTHERLAND Rory
ULISSI Diego
Pretty good team I would say. Maybe even more than just "pretty". There are actually 5 riders who could finish in top10 on a good day and it wouldn't be a big surprise.

Strong team indeed, but with their abundance of leaders, breaking the race up and getting into right moves would imo be a better strategy than helping hold the race together and going up against Alaphilippe on the Mur.

Having said that, the last scenario would be a very viable plan B, given the characteristics of some of their leaders (D.Martin, Henao). Using that as a plan A though, would be a waste of their resources.

 

[fauniera]

Still, only switching on for the final 30 kilometers seems to have been enough last Sunday.

On another note, I always wonder how confused new members of the forum are when they read posts like this. Incredible that this whole meme already started over 3 years ago.

Seems like you lost your touch, as these 30 km weren't too shabby. :Question:

 

[Blanco]

I think after many, many years that we will see winning move before the last Mur.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Won't be an uphill sprint this year I feel

I hope the Nibali-Schachmann break last year, that almost succeeded, motivates some riders to go long again. I really wish to witness an edition of this race that doesn't end in an uphill sprint once in my life.

I think this is the year when the winner will come from a small select group of favorites at the foot of Mur de Huy.

I think after many, many years that we will see winning move before the last Mur.

You guys should put some money down!

 

[Faserr]

We should all believe in miracles.

 

[topcat]

Sprint finish. Bala to boss it.

 

[Laplaz]

Sagan will start.

 

[HelloDolly]

Everyone again will wait for the bottom of the final ascent of the Muir (no Nibali this year)
Wellens will attack and run out of steam half way up
Betancur will take off like a rocket only to come to a stand still on last corner and be passed by D Martin accelerating
Then Bala will throw away his zimmer frame and pass Martin at the 100 m
But Alaphilippe will surge forward and pass all in the last 30m and WIN!!!

Tuens, Schachmann, Henao, Kreuziger and Matthews will make up the top 10

 

[grizzlee]

Very strange poll, no Dan Martin???????

 

[Angliru]

Re:

This Alaphilippe guy has to be pretty good if he can make the race on Sunday (not riding to his strengths) and be one of the two best riders on the hills while I'm being told left, right and center that he is past his peak..

I believe many are basing this on his statement to the media that he's not in the same form at this time this year that he was in last year.

 

[Laplaz]

Strong winds coming from south are predicted for tomorrow. On Mur de Huy it is mainly head/crosswind. On Ereffe to Cherave a strong tailwind.

 

[shalgo]

Re:

Very strange poll, no Dan Martin???????

This poll is about who will win, not who will start the Mur in terrible position and then close fast for a position on the podium.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

I think after many, many years that we will see winning move before the last Mur.

The winning move in the women's race has been almost invariably before the Mur in recent years.

 

[Salvarani]

Why are there so many smartasses on this forum?

 

[Sciatic]

Why are there so many smartasses on this forum?

Tradition. After all it's Classics season . . .

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

Very strange poll, no Dan Martin???????

Sorry, I overlooked him. That means he's probably going to win.