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Lance Armstrong to Race Hawaii Ironman 2011

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On Yer Bike said:
What a surprise, Thoughtforfood hates Tri as well as LA..."Curmudgeon" springs to mind.

I guess the only thing you like is writing on forums judging by the number of your posts being splattered all over every thread (...the ones relating to LA, at least...)?

No, I am quite keen on your mom too.
 
Jul 19, 2009
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Rupert said:
Nailed that one. Although it took 3 comments to get there. But, as with Tour of the Gila and the Leadville 100, I will be surprised if any of the complaints come from the event sponsors or the serious competitors. As usual, there will be a lot of noise from the peanut gallery (reporters, pack fill, and "non-fanboy" bloggers) but the competitors will be thrilled to have a chance to beat him and the sponsors will love the extra attention he brings to their event (not that Ironman really needs it). Lots of discussion on this previously on another thread, but outside the (uninformed) mainstream press I doubt anyone reallys sees Armstrong as a potential winner.

Pretty sure you're mistaken. The spots aren't at the expense of people who have to qualify.

Do you think the guys who are paid to pace the leaders in the marathons and then drop out at miles 15 and 22 are taking spots from qualifiers? Do you really think people were thrown out of Leadville when a couple guys were enlisted by the Armstrong camp to race?

Dave Scott came in 2nd at age 40.
 
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??

dienekes88 said:
Pretty sure you're mistaken. The spots aren't at the expense of people who have to qualify.

Do you think the guys who are paid to pace the leaders in the marathons and then drop out at miles 15 and 22 are taking spots from qualifiers? Do you really think people were thrown out of Leadville when a couple guys were enlisted by the Armstrong camp to race?

Dave Scott came in 2nd at age 40.

Not sure what you mean. I wasn't trying to say his spot would be at the expense of others, or that people were thrown out of Leadville. Just that there would be some griping, but not from the competitors. There wasn't any complaining form the Pros at the Gila or the contenders at Leadville.

Not that Lance won't be competitive, but I would be very surprised if he won. Just because he hasn't been training hard for triathlon since he was a teenager, as the pros have.

Either I wrote a very unclear post and/or you read something into it that wasn't intended...
 
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Nick777 said:
Actually, you raise a good point. Udo Bolts did the same thing a few years ago, and didn't have to qualify. I'd hate to be the one to miss out because of it.

Rupert said:
Not sure what you mean. I wasn't trying to say his spot would be at the expense of others, or that people were thrown out of Leadville. Just that there would be some griping, but not from the competitors. There wasn't any complaining form the Pros at the Gila or the contenders at Leadville.

Not that Lance won't be competitive, but I would be very surprised if he won. Just because he hasn't been training hard for triathlon since he was a teenager, as the pros have.

Either I wrote a very unclear post and/or you read something into it that wasn't intended...

Skimmed the thread and assumed you were in the same camp as the above quote.

I think he'll be very competitive if he's serious: maybe around 10th (8:35-8:40)? The limiting factors will be losing too much time in the swim and not having the running miles in his legs to throw down the really magical runs that are often required to win Hawaii. Normann Stadler showed (in '04 and '06) that the race could be won on the bike, though...
 
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Ferminal said:
I don't think cyclists get tortured the same as Triathletes or marathon runners. ... What's the science behind it, is the muscle use from Swimming/Running a lot more taxing than Cycling?

I think the key "taxing" part is the run, since out of the three, it's the only full weight bearing activity.

The commentators of triathlon always note that the run is the hardest part, not becoz it's last, but becoz it's the one discipline where you are not aided by anything.

Swimming, you are aided by water, you weigh about 10% of your body weight - so it's not weight bearing

Cycling, you are aided by sitting down, and momentum, not sure about the %, but obviously, sitting on a sit, with momentum of 40km/h, in terms of how "taxing" it is on your body, its definately less than running (and more than swim). However, the bike takes 4-5 hours, and the run 3ish, so it's hard to compare the overall effect.

I know most forum posters hate LA, but I wish him good luck at Kona. I think if he can pull of the swim ten minutes down on the top guys, catch up on the bike, and as he has said "be fresher" for the run, he could well pull of a top 10 result. Given how large the time diff is between 1 and 10, i think he can do this.

Given he has run 3 sub 2:50 marathons, i'd say he could run a 3hr 42k at Kona, especially after being so well trained for the bike. The swim is the key unkown part for him. I guess 2010 is his last TDF, so he'll have 15 months to train for KONA, and i'm pretty sure he can qualify with that amount of time, so it wont be a free entry as many suggest
 
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Beat me to it with the point about Dave Scott 2nd at 40. Age not the barrier here, and don't think the run is either given past performance. Not a lance fan, and I don't think he could win it (hope he doesn't!), but then I wouldn't discount him just because of those factors. JaJa showed a hell of lot of time can be made up on the bike, he really smashed 'em. The swim would be the limiter for me, plus his run would really depend on how much time he devotes to it. Curious - what bike time would he theoretically be capable of? Stadler averaged just over 42km/hr to set the best ever bike split, that's pretty damn solid to me. Would la be able to do that, or better? Presumably, but by how much?
 
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On Yer Bike said:
I know, I've seen your posts on her forum too! When do you find time to live? Probably dont even own a bike...certainly never get out and ride it if you do.

No, but I own lots of motor oil, unprocessed wool, and leather straps. That mom of yours is WILD!
 
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Thoughtforfood said:
No, but I own lots of motor oil, unprocessed wool, and leather straps. That mom of yours is WILD!

HAHAHAHA - TFF, nice burn!!

oh, and one other thing for the topic.. Chris Carmichael also coaches craig alexander, the hawaii ironman defending champ (and i think he is 37 this year and is absolutely dominating the top spots in ironman comps the last couple of years).. The jist, don't ride off lance for a top ten yet!!
 
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forty four said:
a pro cyclists workload far exceeds that of a triathlete in amount of high intensity racing. most tour level cyclists after retirement have done very well in ironman and thats past there prime anyway. besides la use to be a triathlete anyways like in the tour he may not win but he wont do poorly either.

Is your name synonymous with your IQ? Ironman triathletes, the serious ones, do the equivalent training load of a pro cyclist in terms of mileage and then add to that the training load of an olympic swimmer and a marathon runner. They may not race every month, but their 'workload' is greater than a pro cyclist, as they train nearly every day in 3 disciplines. There is a big difference between the short distance stuff LA grew up on and an Ironman event. Distance, heard of that? Ask Lance what is the hardest thing physically he's endured as a sportsman? He said it was his first marathon. Now run one after swimming 3.8km and riding 180km and then come back to reality and acknowledge that cyclists are not the be all and end all of endurance athletes. Or perhaps go and do some basic research about triathlon.

krebs303 said:
Laurent Jalabert, January 2007, he competed at Ironman Switzerland and finished with 9 hours 12 minutes...After Switzerland he qualified for the Ironman World championship in Kona, Hawaii, finishing in 9:19 and 76th overall.[3] In June, 2008, he finished 12th overall at Ironman France in Nice, improving his swim time to 1:06 and having the second fastest bike split.

So the fastest women were in front of him. I hope he wasn't trying to be competitive. Not that being competitive is the reason for turning up. Some people like the personal challenge, training and then racing to reach a desired goal.

Mountain Goat said:
I know most forum posters hate LA, but I wish him good luck at Kona. I think if he can pull of the swim ten minutes down on the top guys, catch up on the bike, and as he has said "be fresher" for the run, he could well pull of a top 10 result. Given how large the time diff is between 1 and 10, i think he can do this.

Given he has run 3 sub 2:50 marathons, i'd say he could run a 3hr 42k at Kona, especially after being so well trained for the bike. The swim is the key unkown part for him. I guess 2010 is his last TDF, so he'll have 15 months to train for KONA, and i'm pretty sure he can qualify with that amount of time, so it wont be a free entry as many suggest

Ok, for the uninitiated, we've been over this two months back but I'll rehash it for the imbiciles who couldn't pick a winner in a two horse race. Lance's fastest marathon is 2:46 if I remember correctly and was in Boston. The fastest Ironmen can run a 2:45-2:50 marathon at the end of the event after the swim and bike legs. Lance will be doing well to finish under 3:30 or 3:20 in the marathon. He may be competitive in the age category, but the open tier...not going to happen, just like that 8th Tour win. He would struggle to top 20 or 30. I've said it before, the top two women will probably beat him. Now enough with the fanboy fantasies. Why did Lance stop the marathons running? Anyone remember the actual reason? When anyone does get back to us, pleae take the liberty to explain what Lances technique shows and why he will be lucky to break the times I mentioned. He cannot fix his technical difficulties and try and win the Tour in the one year...but he can try.

Oh and Crowie has been racing Ironman events for a decade...training and pedigree. Lance can't just turn up and bam he's on the podium, especially in a non team sport. Sheesh people! Cut the man some slack and be realisitic. As for the age part, Crowie is 2 years younger, but he's actually been winning for years now.
 
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Galic Ho said:
Ok, for the uninitiated, we've been over this two months back but I'll rehash it for the imbiciles who couldn't pick a winner in a two horse race. Lance's fastest marathon is 2:46 if I remember correctly and was in Boston. The fastest Ironmen can run a 2:45-2:50 marathon at the end of the event after the swim and bike legs. Lance will be doing well to finish under 3:30 or 3:20 in the marathon. He may be competitive in the age category, but the open tier...not going to happen, just like that 8th Tour win. He would struggle to top 20 or 30. I've said it before, the top two women will probably beat him. Now enough with the fanboy fantasies. Why did Lance stop the marathons running? Anyone remember the actual reason? When anyone does get back to us, pleae take the liberty to explain what Lances technique shows and why he will be lucky to break the times I mentioned. He cannot fix his technical difficulties and try and win the Tour in the one year...but he can try.

Oh and Crowie has been racing Ironman events for a decade...training and pedigree. Lance can't just turn up and bam he's on the podium, especially in a non team sport. Sheesh people! Cut the man some slack and be realisitic. As for the age part, Crowie is 2 years younger, but he's actually been winning for years now.

I stand by my prediction of a top ten (i never said anything about the podium), and i stand by my prediction of a 3hr marathon, and I agree that Chrissie Wellington will definately beat him. This is not a fanboy prediction, its a genuine prediction based on facts.. Top ten is definately acheivable, given he's got TWO YEARS to train for it, and 15 months after the 2010 TDF to REALLY train for and given how large a time gap is between 1 and 10.
 
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While I am not a big LA fan, i come from a running background and I believe Lance can do quite well, not win but i think he would most certainly beat the top women.

First not to offend the tri fans here but sorry the marathon in the ironman is glorified jogging. Part of the reason is the athletes are not running fast enough to move efficiently from one stride to the next so they are putting more stress on themselves than an efficient runner.
Part of the reason is because of the fatigue of the muscles used on the bike leg, but part of it is also the running technique of the athletes involved.

at a slower pace you do not maintain your momentum efficiently . An efficeint runner is handicapped by the stresses from the bike leg, for an inefficient runner like Lance it is business as usual.
While he wont run a 2 30 marathon a 2 50 would be achievable.
His marathon style is basically an ugly gut check, just a 3 hour exercise in pain management.You take a race horse and weigh him down he becomes just as slow as a draft horse for whom the added weight is no problem.

On a side note i remember reading about one of the leaders in Hawaii last year
dropping out because his front shifter cable broke on the way back(mostly downhill)?
Ok ya dont have to be MacGiver to figure out you have plenty of range on your rear cog, so you put it in the big ring and go
All the triathletes magazines were pretty suppportive of his dropping out, I could imagine the grief a pro cyclist would get if he made a similar decision.
How many mechanicals do people suffer in Leadville?
I think it shows a difference in attitude between a Pro triathlete mentality and a Pro cyclist.
 
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I just hope it doesn't lead to increased participation in the sport of triathlon in the U.S., like his success fortunately did with road cycling.
 
Mountain Goat said:
I think the key "taxing" part is the run, since out of the three, it's the only full weight bearing activity.

The commentators of triathlon always note that the run is the hardest part, not becoz it's last, but becoz it's the one discipline where you are not aided by anything.

Swimming, you are aided by water, you weigh about 10% of your body weight - so it's not weight bearing

Cycling, you are aided by sitting down, and momentum, not sure about the %, but obviously, sitting on a sit, with momentum of 40km/h, in terms of how "taxing" it is on your body, its definately less than running (and more than swim). However, the bike takes 4-5 hours, and the run 3ish, so it's hard to compare the overall effect.

I know most forum posters hate LA, but I wish him good luck at Kona. I think if he can pull of the swim ten minutes down on the top guys, catch up on the bike, and as he has said "be fresher" for the run, he could well pull of a top 10 result. Given how large the time diff is between 1 and 10, i think he can do this.

Given he has run 3 sub 2:50 marathons, i'd say he could run a 3hr 42k at Kona, especially after being so well trained for the bike. The swim is the key unkown part for him. I guess 2010 is his last TDF, so he'll have 15 months to train for KONA, and i'm pretty sure he can qualify with that amount of time, so it wont be a free entry as many suggest

Armstrong started his sporting life as a distance swimmer, so that wouldnt be a problem. The last half of the run would be where the lack of years of running would hit.
 
Galic Ho said:
Is your name synonymous with your IQ? Ironman triathletes, the serious ones, do the equivalent training load of a pro cyclist in terms of mileage and then add to that the training load of an olympic swimmer and a marathon runner. They may not race every month, but their 'workload' is greater than a pro cyclist, as they train nearly every day in 3 disciplines. There is a big difference between the short distance stuff LA grew up on and an Ironman event. Distance, heard of that? Ask Lance what is the hardest thing physically he's endured as a sportsman? He said it was his first marathon. Now run one after swimming 3.8km and riding 180km and then come back to reality and acknowledge that cyclists are not the be all and end all of endurance athletes. Or perhaps go and do some basic research about triathlon.

So the fastest women were in front of him. I hope he wasn't trying to be competitive. Not that being competitive is the reason for turning up. Some people like the personal challenge, training and then racing to reach a desired goal.

Ok, for the uninitiated, we've been over this two months back but I'll rehash it for the imbiciles who couldn't pick a winner in a two horse race. Lance's fastest marathon is 2:46 if I remember correctly and was in Boston. The fastest Ironmen can run a 2:45-2:50 marathon at the end of the event after the swim and bike legs. Lance will be doing well to finish under 3:30 or 3:20 in the marathon. He may be competitive in the age category, but the open tier...not going to happen, just like that 8th Tour win. He would struggle to top 20 or 30. I've said it before, the top two women will probably beat him. Now enough with the fanboy fantasies. Why did Lance stop the marathons running? Anyone remember the actual reason? When anyone does get back to us, pleae take the liberty to explain what Lances technique shows and why he will be lucky to break the times I mentioned. He cannot fix his technical difficulties and try and win the Tour in the one year...but he can try.

Oh and Crowie has been racing Ironman events for a decade...training and pedigree. Lance can't just turn up and bam he's on the podium, especially in a non team sport. Sheesh people! Cut the man some slack and be realisitic. As for the age part, Crowie is 2 years younger, but he's actually been winning for years now.

No they don't.
 
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runninboy said:
While I am not a big LA fan, i come from a running background and I believe Lance can do quite well, not win but i think he would most certainly beat the top women.

First not to offend the tri fans here but sorry the marathon in the ironman is glorified jogging. Part of the reason is the athletes are not running fast enough to move efficiently from one stride to the next so they are putting more stress on themselves than an efficient runner.
Part of the reason is because of the fatigue of the muscles used on the bike leg, but part of it is also the running technique of the athletes involved.

at a slower pace you do not maintain your momentum efficiently . An efficeint runner is handicapped by the stresses from the bike leg, for an inefficient runner like Lance it is business as usual.
While he wont run a 2 30 marathon a 2 50 would be achievable.
His marathon style is basically an ugly gut check, just a 3 hour exercise in pain management.You take a race horse and weigh him down he becomes just as slow as a draft horse for whom the added weight is no problem.

On a side note i remember reading about one of the leaders in Hawaii last year dropping out because his front shifter cable broke on the way back(mostly downhill)? Ok ya dont have to be MacGiver to figure out you have plenty of range on your rear cog, so you put it in the big ring and go. All the triathletes magazines were pretty suppportive of his dropping out, I could imagine the grief a pro cyclist would get if he made a similar decision.
How many mechanicals do people suffer in Leadville? I think it shows a difference in attitude between a Pro triathlete mentality and a Pro cyclist.

Champ I am offended. You are an idiot. Or maybe you're visiting Idiotville for the day? Don't take it personally but I gave the best time Lance has ever run for the marathon solely, on its own, with preparation (google it). You have just suggested that Lance can match that time after the other two legs. Hint, nobody can match their 'flat out' PB for a singular marathon in an Ironman event. Nobody. A 2:50 marathon leg, not a chance. You can count the number of people on the planet who can do this on one hand. Yes it was a suggestion on your behalf, but a daft one. Your ascertion that Lance won't run a 2:30 marathon...WTF? He's never cracked 2:45 on the marathon alone! The fastest recorded marathon at Kona is 2:35. If you cannot get these basic details right, or worse, are unaware of the details and make absurd claims, why should anyone believe the content and notion of your last paragraph?

Get Crowie and Macca to run just the marathon leg, they will be near 2:20. Lance will drop 30 minutes, so 3:20 would be fantastic given he can put up a 2:50 on the marathon alone. You also spelt MacGyver incorrectly (where I mostly take offense). Please try and get the name of televisions greatest character correct in future. As for his swimming, if he finishes under 1:10 I'll be impressed.

As for the triathlete and cyclist mental approach comment. It boils down to one thing. Cyclists are better dopers. Fact. Hope that enlightened you to the errors in your thinking. As for the running part, Lance's marathon running was giving him shin splints. Running technique is not important if you have very good aerobic capacities, but it helps prevent injuries. Lance struggles in one of these areas. In case anyone wanted to believe that other half truth you placed in your post about 'slower pace'.

@ Mountain Goat. If LA has two years, yes he will be competitive, but I've been under the impression since the announcement was made in July for Radioshack's foray into cycling, that Lance would start triathlon competition next year, after he stops cycling for the season.
 
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Nick777 said:
No they don't.

Maybe in your country they don't, but the ones who win, from my country do. Heard it from the horses mouth. Unless the triathlete horse has copied the cycling horse and is telling fibs. When you list the volumes each would consider doing I'll believe you.

Cyclist, minimum kilometres, swimming in hours and running also in kilometres. I know the relative volume the top Kona guys are doing, and will give you the cycling figure...700 km's a week. Some do more.
 
Galic Ho said:
Maybe in your country they don't, but the ones who win, from my country do. Heard it from the horses mouth. Unless the triathlete horse has copied the cycling horse and is telling fibs. When you list the volumes each would consider doing I'll believe you.

Cyclist, minimum kilometres, swimming in hours and running also in kilometres. I know the relative volume the top Kona guys are doing, and will give you the cycling figure...700 km's a week. Some do more.

My country is Australia, and your horse is pulling your leg :)
I have no doubt that a pro triathlete's biggest cycling week would go close to that of a pro rider, but not swimmers & runners. No way.

In short..
Swim: 10-12 hours per week
Ride: 400-700k per week
Run: 80-130k per week

In detail
Swim: No more than 30-36kms per week. That would be 5 or 6 sessions per week, 6k or 2 hours per session. Endurance swimmers do 70-80 per week. Hackett used to do about 80.
Ride: Going from some of the guys I know who have done well at Hawaii, they would average about 500 per week. A guy I know has twice been in the top 10 there, and his biggest ever week was 800k - but when he did that, he significantly reduced his normal 90-100k running week. Twice he had a top 5 bike split at Hawaii.
Run: 100-130km, compared to marathon runners 200km. Mark Allen used to max out at 130.

By the way - my money would be on either Alexander or McCormack tomorrow. Macca has been unusually quiet, which normally means he is focused.
 
Galic Ho said:
Hint, nobody can match their 'flat out' PB for a singular marathon in an Ironman event. Nobody

Unless your name is Luc Van Lierde, and you joke around in the draft bin before running your fastest ever marathon..:rolleyes: But yes - he would run faster in a flat marathon.

I like the way he left the island the day before the race (& the day after they announced new drug tests) a few years back... because he "wasnt mentally ready to race".
 
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Nick777 said:
My country is Australia, and your horse is pulling your leg :)
I have no doubt that a pro triathlete's biggest cycling week would go close to that of a pro rider, but not swimmers & runners. No way.

In short..
Swim: 10-12 hours per week
Ride: 400-700k per week
Run: 80-130k per week

In detail
Swim: No more than 30-36kms per week. That would be 5 or 6 sessions per week, 6k or 2 hours per session. Endurance swimmers do 70-80 per week. Hackett used to do about 80.
Ride: Going from some of the guys I know who have done well at Hawaii, they would average about 500 per week. A guy I know has twice been in the top 10 there, and his biggest ever week was 800k - but when he did that, he significantly reduced his normal 90-100k running week. Twice he had a top 5 bike split at Hawaii.
Run: 100-130km, compared to marathon runners 200km. Mark Allen used to max out at 130.

By the way - my money would be on either Alexander or McCormack tomorrow. Macca has been unusually quiet, which normally means he is focused.

As an amatuer with a full time job I used to come very close to the lower end of these figures when I was training for IM. I can see a pro (and I mean a real one, not the guys who have to work a part time job to support their tri career) would be able to pull those numbers during the heavy phase of their training.
 
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Galic Ho said:
Champ I am offended. You are an idiot. Or maybe you're visiting Idiotville for the day? Don't take it personally but I gave the best time Lance has ever run for the marathon solely, on its own, with preparation (google it). You have just suggested that Lance can match that time after the other two legs. Hint, nobody can match their 'flat out' PB for a singular marathon in an Ironman event. Nobody. A 2:50 marathon leg, not a chance. You can count the number of people on the planet who can do this on one hand. Yes it was a suggestion on your behalf, but a daft one. Your ascertion that Lance won't run a 2:30 marathon...WTF? He's never cracked 2:45 on the marathon alone! The fastest recorded marathon at Kona is 2:35. If you cannot get these basic details right, or worse, are unaware of the details and make absurd claims, why should anyone believe the content and notion of your last paragraph?

Get Crowie and Macca to run just the marathon leg, they will be near 2:20. Lance will drop 30 minutes, so 3:20 would be fantastic given he can put up a 2:50 on the marathon alone. You also spelt MacGyver incorrectly (where I mostly take offense). Please try and get the name of televisions greatest character correct in future. As for his swimming, if he finishes under 1:10 I'll be impressed.

As for the triathlete and cyclist mental approach comment. It boils down to one thing. Cyclists are better dopers. Fact. Hope that enlightened you to the errors in your thinking. As for the running part, Lance's marathon running was giving him shin splints. Running technique is not important if you have very good aerobic capacities, but it helps prevent injuries. Lance struggles in one of these areas. In case anyone wanted to believe that other half truth you placed in your post about 'slower pace'.

@ Mountain Goat. If LA has two years, yes he will be competitive, but I've been under the impression since the announcement was made in July for Radioshack's foray into cycling, that Lance would start triathlon competition next year, after he stops cycling for the season.

+1 to all of that except the swim. I reckon if a hack like me can swim 1:06 (taking it easy) without a wettie then LA could match it. Yup, I was at Forster in '04. Jalabert mustn't have been trying very hard to do 1:10+, because thats a shocking swim spilt!

IM is littered with ex-runners who thought they could tear the legs off triathletes, and they all underestimated how much the swim/bike takes out of them.

I hope LA can run in the heat/humidity, because he's gunna burn on the lava flats! Without him doing a race in advance I think its silly to predict how he's going to go. People making comments like 'He started out as a swimmer, so the swim leg will be easy' are clearing not experienced in making a comeback. I once had 12 months off between my previous IM and starting training for my next IM. And one thing is for sure, you just don't get back overnight what you've lost. So getting back what he had 10-15yrs ago is not a given.

Pro triathletes will often pull out of a race. It has nothing to do with heart. Why kill yourself in a race you can't get paid for at the finish line? Better to pull out and save yourself for another day. Its not like cycling where you stick around to support the team for the following stage. Its an individual sport. Saying it lacks heart is just stupid and ignores the reality of the situation.