Once again, I'm STILL trying to figure out where this magical stage is that everyone says LA is trying to win.
Stage 14 to Aix 3 Domaines? No way, second group at best. This is going to be Schleck and Contador mano a mano.
Stage 15? Casartelli died on the Col d'Aspet, but again this is a stage for the GC contenders. No chance they give a "token" win on a battleground stage.
Stage 16? This is the Queen Stage with the Cat 1 Peyresourde and Aspin, and the HC Tourmalet, and Aubisque. Third day in the mountains, massive climbing stage, final chance for Schleck to gain ground on Contador. Plus, way too hard for Armstrong after two previous days in the Pyrenees.
Stage 17? Last day in the mountains and two more Cat 1 climbs and a return up the HC Tourmalet from the opposite side. Four hard mountain days. 38 year old legs?
Stage 18? 200 K, pancake-flat. Last chance before Paris for the sprinters. Maybe he gets in a break? No matter who does, they're gonna get caught.
Stage 19? 52 K ITT. The less said, the better.
Stage 20? No one goes on the Champs unless invited and I'm not sure there's that much good will. Maybe a ceremonial lead onto the first circuit ala Ekimov, but it's Paris and the stage will again belong to the sprinters.