Last battle at lombardy! Who will win?

[pmcg76]

I am going with Cunego, I think he has been taking it easy since the worlds. I would love to see Gilbert win it because I like his riding style. His 08 Het Volk win was so amazing to watch. However I think he will be heavily marked on Saturday, will need some grat help from Evans and Lotto.

 

[Furbo_]

Dani Moreno is my dark horse pick.

 

[Race Radio]

Ok, time for my darkhorse

Chris Horner

 

[il_fiammingo]

I am going with Cunego, I think he has been taking it easy since the worlds. I would love to see Gilbert win it because I like his riding style. His 08 Het Volk win was so amazing to watch. However I think he will be heavily marked on Saturday, will need some grat help from Evans and Lotto.

But in some way, he doesn't have to do anything because he has little experience in Lombardia and he never ended close before. In comparison to Sabatini, Tours & Piemonte, the course is much harder so i bet he'll be much more careful. He won't animate the race IMO (until the last 500m hopfully )
That's up to Gesink, Evans, Vino (because they can't sprint) and Cunego (because he is the Lombardia specialist).

 

[350Watts]

I'll go with Vino, I think he is really starting to figure out this biological passport thing.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

idd, Gilbert just scored a hattrick in Piemonte...

Yes he won 3 races, but people need to put things in perspective

Compare the profiles of those 3 races, with Lombardia -> No comparison. He wins 3 slightly hilly to almost flat (PT) races... He skipped Emilia, because just like Fleche Wallone, he has no chance there (quote, himself, he hates 2km long steep ramps like that).

And Lombardia, well, I think it's just too hard for Gilbert. Because the San Fermo dello Bataglia and the Civiglio, while not as hard as the San Luca or the Mur de Huy, ARE still 2/3km long steep ramps. So he will have trouble there...
But if he can come back in the descent or just has an awesome day and somehow keep with the best, he can take it in the sprint

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink has hardly any experience of such long one-day races. Lombardy is not Emily. But maybe he will surprise me.

3rd in Amstel Gold Race (250km)
13th in LBL 2008 (265km)
10th in Olympics road race 2008
10th in World Ch 2008
15th in Lombardia in 2007 (being 21!!)

Check your facts

 

[Echoes]

Not that great, is it?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I beg your pardon?

How many 22/21 year olds finished top 15/top 10 in 250km+ classics?
His AGR 3rd place was when he was still 22 (he turned 23 in may)!!! That's also 250km...

So your whole argument of him being not experienced with such long classics is not true. He performed already extremely well in those at younger age. So there is no way to start doubting him now.

 

[blaxland]

i think with the form silence/lotto has got they will have 2 riders on the podium split by sanchez.dont know if cadel is first or gilbert....lotto's lombardi to lose...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I really have doubts over Gilbert on this course, think too much of climbs for him, and the fact that he went 100% at Piemonte 2 days ago doesn't help either.

But hey, confidence and superform can do a lot. I just doubt it makes up for lack of real climbing ability.

 

[Anonymous]

i do love the way cadel wins his first race in, well, years and suddenly everyone expects him to win again..

maybe the rainbow stripes will give him a new attitude though...

 

[auscyclefan94]

Lombardia outright winner odds
Cunego $5.00
Sanchez $7.00
Gilbert $8.00
Gesink $10.00
Evans $11.00
Rodriguez $17.00
Visconti $17.00
Kolobnev $21.00
Pozzato $21.00
Vinokourov $21.00

The Bookies don't like Vino's chances. Our poll says different

 

[Anonymous]

Lombardia outright winner odds
Cunego $5.00
Sanchez $7.00
Gilbert $8.00
Gesink $10.00
Evans $11.00
Rodriguez $17.00
Visconti $17.00
Kolobnev $21.00
Pozzato $21.00
Vinokourov $21.00

The Bookies don't like Vino's chances. Our poll says different

Yea, cause the one thing this forum has shown is that the people who post here are fantastic at predicting the finishing order of a race... Please take note of the TdF for further clarification.

 

[usedtobefast]

based on TFF's logic. i'll pick Gilbert

 

[craig1985]

I can not predict the winner of the 2000 Tour de France. That said I once predicted that Freire and di Luca would win MSR and LBL a couple of years ago, but that is as good as it gets for me.

 

[Cerberus]

Is the race going to be streamed anywhere?

 

[IfOnlyIWasEddieMerckx]

Map & Profile

Cadel
Any danger you could put that map and profile in the race preview where it's supposed to be !

 

[auscyclefan94]

Enjoy the last race of the season everyone. Unfortunately, i won't be there as i am doing a fun ride early in the morning. Go Cadel!

 

[laziali]

Lombardia outright winner odds
Cunego $5.00
Sanchez $7.00
Gilbert $8.00
Gesink $10.00
Evans $11.00

Evans at $11 are very very good odds - Cunego at $5 is 2.2 times more likely than Evans to win? - I don't think so

 

[Cerberus]

Evans at $11 are very very good odds - Cunego at $5 is 2.2 times more likely than Evans to win? - I don't think so

Has CE ever won a major one day race except the WC? CE AFAIK is a fairly bad sprinter and the chances of the just crowned WC being allowed to go of on his own again are slim. I don't bet myself since I assume the bookmakers know more than I do, but even if I did I wouldn't think CE is a good bet right now.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Has CE ever won a major one day race except the WC? CE AFAIK is a fairly bad sprinter and the chances of the just crowned WC being allowed to go of on his own again are slim. I don't bet myself since I assume the bookmakers know more than I do, but even if I did I wouldn't think CE is a good bet right now.

Evans is not that bad of a sprinter. I don't see anyone else other than possibly Gilbert beating Cunego in the sprint.i would say he is an equal sprinter with Sanchez and better than a basso or vinokourov or a gesink.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Evans at $11 are very very good odds - Cunego at $5 is 2.2 times more likely than Evans to win? - I don't think so

Idd. I'd say at least 3 times more likely

Vino just gets support votes. And that's a good thing.

 

[ak-zaaf]

Evans is not that bad of a sprinter. I don't see anyone else other than possibly Gilbert beating Cunego in the sprint.i would say he is an equal sprinter with Sanchez and better than a basso or vinokourov or a gesink.

Basso, Gesink and Evans all don't have a chance in a sprint. They're about equal. Well, Evans did beat Gesink once after sucking his wheel for an hour, but that hardly counts. Sanchez has a pretty good sprint after a hard race (see olympics). Don't know what Vino still got, but he also used to have a pretty decent sprint.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'm surprised cunego is at $5.00 and favourite. He doesn't have great form though cunego is a very enigmatic rider so he could blitz the field or not even finish