le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[dlwssonic]

Contador can drop Andy quite easily when in top shape.

but he is not.

 

[El Pistolero]

but he is not.

Says who? Contador saying he's tired? Yeah, I'd definitely believe that.

 

[lanternrouge]

Two things interesting so far in this thread. A lot of posters seem to think AC will win from baby Schleck, I doubt that after the Giro in Contador's legs. If AC does win then that will be something against a rider that can match him on the climbs and has a very strong team.

The other one is the presence of Wiggo in a lot of top tens, a while ago most people were saying he would be lucky to get top 20.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Says who? Contador saying he's tired? Yeah, I'd definitely believe that.

no way he can be in top shape after the giro, unless he's been binging on steaks during his time off.

 

[dlwssonic]

Says who? Contador saying he's tired? Yeah, I'd definitely believe that.

He is human you know. After going through one of the most hard GTs ever he is bound to be tired. Plus he will be going against very fresh riders.

 

[El Pistolero]

no way he can be in top shape after the giro, unless he's been binging on steaks during his time off.

The first mountain stage doesn't come till stage 12. That's a half GT already. He's got time to recover. He's not going to be in Giro shape, but I think it will be enough to teach Schleck a thing or two.

 

[dlwssonic]

remember the first 12 days will take out a lot from him too.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The first mountain stage doesn't come till stage 12. That's a half GT already. He's got time to recover. He's not going to be in Giro shape, but I think it will be enough to teach Schleck a thing or two.

The first 11 stages wont be ridden easy. The tour's tempo makes all stages hard. Except for bastille day.

Even if he has acceptable form, he wont be in top form, which is what you orgiginal post indicated.

 

[Walkman]

Contador can drop Andy quite easily when in top shape.

Man, you never stop do you?

Seriously, that's just pure BS and if your really believe that, well... then I guess you are even worse that the LA-fanboys.

 

[nvpacchi]

I hope you are right Nick, but I dont think Samus performance was identical to last year. This year he lost bad on the main climbs where last year he lost but was still decent.

And obviously you dont want to be on peak for Dauphine, but still shouldnt be losing to Tony Martin.

Last year's Dauphine was also a joke in parcours compared to this years. I never read into the Dauphine because seasoned riders know exactly where they need to be in terms of form come July.

I'll also add that Samu was 45th in the 2008 Dauphine before finishing 6th in the Tour. He sees no value in trying to light the world in fire in June, especially since he hasn't raced since LBL

 

[El Pistolero]

Man, you never stop do you?

Seriously, that's just pure BS and if your really believe that, well... then I guess you are even worse that the LA-fanboys.

Yes, I do believe that. Andy Schleck has won one good race in his career and that's it. Talk about overrated as hell.

Andy has never managed to drop Contador on a climb. While there are plenty of examples out there with Contador dropping Schlecklett. What makes you think a guy that loses more than a minute in a prologue is super good anyway? That's just pathetic.

I've seen Andy Schleck drop his chain 3 times now in less than a year and almost a fourth time during the final time trial in the Tour last year.

If Andy was on the Etna during the Giro he would have gotten dropped like everybody else.

 

[jobiwan]

Yes, I do believe that. Andy Schleck has won one good race in his career and that's it. Talk about overrated as hell.

Andy has never managed to drop Contador on a climb. While there are plenty of examples out there with Contador dropping Schlecklett. What makes you think a guy that loses more than a minute in a prologue is super good anyway? That's just pathetic.

I've seen Andy Schleck drop his chain 3 times now in less than a year and almost a fourth time during the final time trial in the Tour last year.

If Andy was on the Etna during the Giro he would have gotten dropped like everybody else.

Did you even watch the Avoriaz stage last year, or was it too depressing?

 

[maxmartin]

I though bastille day will be even harder, all the french riders will go crazy on that day, am I wrong?

The first 11 stages wont be ridden easy. The tour's tempo makes all stages hard. Except for bastille day.

Even if he has acceptable form, he wont be in top form, which is what you orgiginal post indicated.

 

[kurtinsc]

Yes, I do believe that. Andy Schleck has won one good race in his career and that's it. Talk about overrated as hell.

Andy has never managed to drop Contador on a climb. While there are plenty of examples out there with Contador dropping Schlecklett. What makes you think a guy that loses more than a minute in a prologue is super good anyway? That's just pathetic.

I've seen Andy Schleck drop his chain 3 times now in less than a year and almost a fourth time during the final time trial in the Tour last year.

If Andy was on the Etna during the Giro he would have gotten dropped like everybody else.

While it didn't end up being important, I do believe that Andy did drop Contador on Stage 8 of the Tour last year. 10 seconds isn't really a huge deal, but it is what it is.

I still come back to the fact that last year, Schleck lost 39 seconds on the stage he dropped his chain... and lost the overall by 39 seconds. Of course gaining 1:13 in the cobbled stage helped with that, but he seems close enough that he's the one rider I'm not going to assume Contador can beat... especially after having already ridden the Giro.

 

[just some guy]

I though bastille day will be even harder, all the french riders will go crazy on that day, am I wrong?

But generally once the break is away the tempo drops unless one of the French teams misses out then they take over the peloton.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

While it didn't end up being important, I do believe that Andy did drop Contador on Stage 8 of the Tour last year. 10 seconds isn't really a huge deal, but it is what it is.

I still come back to the fact that last year, Schleck lost 39 seconds on the stage he dropped his chain... and lost the overall by 39 seconds. Of course gaining 1:13 in the cobbled stage helped with that, but he seems close enough that he's the one rider I'm not going to assume Contador can beat... especially after having already ridden the Giro.

And the 5 mins he should've lost in the ardennes until Canc went all *****

 

[Pantani_lives]

1 Contador
2 A Schleck
3 Basso
4 Gesink
5 VDB
6 Wiggins
7 Evans
8 Soler
9 Cunego
10 F Schleck

 

[UpTheRoad]

Dont know why everyone thinks contador is unbeatable. I dont think contador can drop andy. It will more likely be the other way around. But its most likely that they cant drop each other like last year.

Has either Andy or Frank ever dropped Contador?

 

[jobiwan]

Has either Andy or Frank ever dropped Contador?

YES!
Avoriaz Stage 8

 

[Parrulo]

And the 5 mins he should've lost in the ardennes until Canc went all *****

people tend to forget this one.

honestly if i were some1 like samu or basso the moment andy fvcks up on a flat stage something that is very likely to happen tbh. i would send all my team to the front going all out till the end of the stage and eliminate him from competition right before the mountains.

i am tired of seeing people waiting for schleck happened in both 09 and 10 <_<

 

[UpTheRoad]

Two things interesting so far in this thread. A lot of posters seem to think AC will win from baby Schleck, I doubt that after the Giro in Contador's legs. If AC does win then that will be something against a rider that can match him on the climbs and has a very strong team.

The other one is the presence of Wiggo in a lot of top tens, a while ago most people were saying he would be lucky to get top 20.

Some of the guys who rode well in the Giro have done very well post-Giro. Purito, Kruijswijk, and a few others have raced well. Plus, Contador always starts training in pretty good shape.

I think he'll be fine and should have no problem in France as long as his team can perform for him in the first 10-12 days.

 

[Parrulo]

YES!
Avoriaz Stage 8

that was more of a result of contador's bad tactical choice of countering every single attack then a result of andy's own strength.

also in mende where contador didn't make the same mistake he dropped schleck and put 20 something seconds into him on the climb. but since schlecks group was like 10 man strong they were able to regain some time on the last flat k

 

[jobiwan]

As for my Top 10:

1-2. Contador/Baby Schleck, I still can't decide

Battle for Podium is up for grabs, anyone could take it from:
EDIT: No order here, just names!

Gesink
Sanchez
VDB
Horner
Evans
Basso
Old Schleck
Wiggins

 

[jobiwan]

that was more of a result of contador's bad tactical choice of countering every single attack then a result of andy's own strength.

also in mende where contador didn't make the same mistake he dropped schleck and put 20 something seconds into him on the climb. but since schlecks group was like 10 man strong they were able to regain some time on the last flat k

Still, Up the Road and El Pistolero asked if Schleck had ever dropped Contador, and he did.

Sure, Contador could have played it better, but in that one case, Andy (and Samu) played it to perfection.

Yes, in Mende, Contador did show he was still the class of the peleton.

I'm rooting for Andy, but I enjoy watching Contador race! It'll be a good show, and I hope they race all the stages. I didn't really like Canc's show at Spa last year, even though it worked in Andy's favor.

 

[Parrulo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_jnzynUECg&feature=related

that day andy actually bonked(not able to keep up with VdB2?) but was lucky the climb was near the end. reminds me of scarponi this year on etna, trying to keep up with contador only to bonk himself hard