le Tour 2011 top 10 GC contenders and pretenders

[jobiwan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_jnzynUECg&feature=related

that day andy actually bonked(not able to keep up with VdB2?) but was lucky the climb was near the end. reminds me of scarponi this year on etna, trying to keep up with contador only to bonk himself hard

That was a great climb and stage!

Are there any finishes like that this year?
Mur-de-Bretagne and the climb on the first stage?
I don't think they're as hard, but something like Mende last year would be neat.

 

[GWAR79]

Peaking

Can one of you awesome guys or gals point me to a good thread about 'peaking'. This topic has been on my mind for a time and I just can't quite wrap my head around the entire concept. For example, A. Schlek doesn't seem that great in the Amgen Cal tour nor the Suisse tour. Then all of the sudden he rips at Le Tour. I don't fully understand how this improvement occurs with training? Thanks

Im also looking for articles about speed advatanges TT bikes have over road bikes. Thanks

 

[luckyboy]

Wtf at that list.

Contador
Andy
Basso
Sanchez
Gesink
Kloden
Evans
Frank
VDB
Hesjedal/VDV

 

[kurtinsc]

people tend to forget this one.

honestly if i were some1 like samu or basso the moment andy fvcks up on a flat stage something that is very likely to happen tbh. i would send all my team to the front going all out till the end of the stage and eliminate him from competition right before the mountains.

i am tired of seeing people waiting for schleck happened in both 09 and 10 <_<

I didn't forget it. I was ****ed off at the time and wasn't cheering for Andy at all last year. I wasn't cheering for Contador either. Kind of left me in an odd situation... either the guy who got preferential treatment through Spartacus would win or the favorite would (and I rarely cheer for the favorite).

 

[Shardi]

If Contador gets back to 90-95% of max ability, A.Schlecks magical 110% tour form wont be enough. Personally I think that he will. If there's anyone who can recover from the giro, its him.
Last year was made interesting due to the fact that contador didn't gain a 1.30-2.00 advantage on A.Schleck. I think the TT margin will be bigger between the two this year.


2011 List:

1. Contador
2. A.Schleck
3. S.Sanchez
4. Gesink
5. Horner
6. Van den Broeck
7. F.Schleck
8. Klöden
9. Evans
10. Wiggins

Basso is an unknown variable at the moment. He stayed with the best on some Dauphine-stage, but things are different in July. For now hes off the list.

 

[UpTheRoad]

that was more of a result of contador's bad tactical choice of countering every single attack then a result of andy's own strength.

Regardless of the circumstances, that is still a drop.

 

[kurtinsc]

Can one of you awesome guys or gals point me to a good thread about 'peaking'. This topic has been on my mind for a time and I just can't quite wrap my head around the entire concept. For example, A. Schlek doesn't seem that great in the Amgen Cal tour nor the Suisse tour. Then all of the sudden he rips at Le Tour. I don't fully understand how this improvement occurs with training? Thanks

Im also looking for articles about speed advatanges TT bikes have over road bikes. Thanks

It's more pronounced with cycling then many other sports, but it exists in almost all endurance sports to some degree.

An extremely dumbed down explanation would be that you build your body through putting yourself through stress, but you need recovery periods to realize those gains.

For example, when I was swimming competitively, I'd target maybe 3 weekends out of an 11 month season for peaks. I'd swim in other meets, testing myself against other competition, but I'd be killing myself in practice for most of that time as well. Then as the key meet approached, I'd scale down the training and let my body recover. (tapering). I'd be extremely rested before the 3-4 days that the meet took place. At the most though, I could only hold those benefits for a week (two weekends) because after that I'd be losing form from not training enough, and then I'd ramp up to another tough training cycle.

From what I understand, the mechanics of how you prepare for cycling events don't work the same way at all... if anything it's almost the reverse where you build your level work leading up to your targets rather then lessening it like you do for swimming. That may have to do with the fact that pretty much every competitive swimming event is a "sprint" by cycling terms... perhaps it's closer to track cycling). But the key is that you can't maintain that peak forever... just a matter of a few weeks. Once you've been killing yourself for a number of consecutive weeks, you need to back it off and recover for a while before building to another peak.

Those that begin their peak now are going to have trouble holding it until the end of July. Ullrich didn't ride in 2002, but I don't think it's shocking that in 2003 when Lance won the D-L, he had his closest shave in the Tour (only winning by 1:01 over Ulrich... who was 7th in that year's TDS).

 

[GWAR79]

It's more pronounced with cycling then many other sports, but it exists in almost all endurance sports to some degree.

An extremely dumbed down explanation would be that you build your body through putting yourself through stress, but you need recovery periods to realize those gains.

For example, when I was swimming competitively, I'd target maybe 3 weekends out of an 11 month season for peaks. I'd swim in other meets, testing myself against other competition, but I'd be killing myself in practice for most of that time as well. Then as the key meet approached, I'd scale down the training and let my body recover. (tapering). I'd be extremely rested before the 3-4 days that the meet took place. At the most though, I could only hold those benefits for a week (two weekends) because after that I'd be losing form from not training enough, and then I'd ramp up to another tough training cycle.

From what I understand, the mechanics of how you prepare for cycling events don't work the same way at all... if anything it's almost the reverse where you build your level work leading up to your targets rather then lessening it like you do for swimming. That may have to do with the fact that pretty much every competitive swimming event is a "sprint" by cycling terms... perhaps it's closer to track cycling). But the key is that you can't maintain that peak forever... just a matter of a few weeks. Once you've been killing yourself for a number of consecutive weeks, you need to back it off and recover for a while before building to another peak.

Those that begin their peak now are going to have trouble holding it until the end of July. Ullrich didn't ride in 2002, but I don't think it's shocking that in 2003 when Lance won the D-L, he had his closest shave in the Tour (only winning by 1:01 over Ulrich... who was 7th in that year's TDS).

kurtinsc, your examples have really helped... Thanks for taking the time to respond

 

[Siriuscat]

90 - 95% of Giro form will be enough I suspect.....anyway

1. CONTADOR Alberto
2. GESINK Robert
3. SCHLECK Andy
4. EVANS Cadel
5. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
6. BASSO Ivan
7. SANCHEZ Samuel
8. SCHLECK Frank
9. WIGGINS Brad
10. LEIPHEIMER Levi

 

[hatcher]

Contador
Schleck

Gesink
VdB
F. Schleck

Sanchez
Horner

Kloden
Evans
Hesjedal

I'd love Wiggo to creep in, but I fear he'll have more minor bad days than the other lower top 10ers.

 

[maltiv]

Contador
A Schleck
Gesink

Samuel Sanchez
F Schleck
VDB2
Uran
Basso
Vino
Cunego

 

[Mambo95]

The following eight should be in the top ten:

Contador
A Schleck
F Schleck
Evans
Gesink
VdB
S Sanchez
Basso

However, at least one, probably two, will fail to get close. The four remaining places could go to any of about 20-30 riders.

 

[Anonymous]

Contador
Schleck
Samu

 

[Ruudz0r]

1 A Schleck
2 Contador
3 Sanchez
4 Gesink
5 Basso
6 VDB
7 Horner
8 Evans
9 Tommy D!
10 Cunego

 

[Bavarianrider]

Too early:
Wiggins, Cunego, Gesink

Vino as always wasted far too much energy already.

 

[Anonymous]

with me supporting the italians GC hopeful...i hope Basso would be in the podium but i dont think it would happen.

 

[El Pistolero]

Did you even watch the Avoriaz stage last year, or was it too depressing?

You mean where Contador lost contact in the sprint? I don't call that getting dropped in a climb sorry.

 

[Parrulo]

Too early: Cunego, Gesink

Vino as always wasted far too much energy already.

lol seriously . . .

how can you go ahead making assumptions like that? is it because your boy martin was dropped like a stone on every single climb in the dauphine? just 2 weeks ago you were saying that martin would top 5 the dauphine and that would be the best way to prepare for the tour. . . .

 

[jobiwan]

You mean where Contador lost contact in the sprint? I don't call that getting dropped in a climb sorry.

By sprint do you mean Andy's attack under the 1 km banner, hardly a sprint, no?
Andy beat Sanchez in the sprint, he dropped Contador that day.

 

[Escarabajo]

too early:
Wiggins, cunego, gesink

vino as always wasted far too much energy already.

?????

.....................

 

[Eric8-A]

In no order. Although the first one is the one I feel will win the Tour.

Andy Schleck

Frank Schleck

Alberto Contador

Jurgen Van Den Broeck

Cadel Evans

Alexander Vinokourov

Ivan Basso

Andreas Kloden

Robert Gesink

Christian Vandevelde

 

[karlboss]

Last night Andy seemed to be looking at his power meter and deciding how to ride based on that more than any tactical situation and it looked easy, really easy, he wasn't dropped, he had a power number not to go over and he didn't.
Looking at ferrari's numbers on the Etna stage Contador is hitting numbers as high as ever. For 3 km a calculated 6.87 w/kg. Now rubbish this number and say it can't be compared to other climbs blah blah blah, but it can be compared to the other guys on the same day who were calculated at 5.79 for the same period. He slowed noticibly through the Giro, some may say as he was tired, which is a factor, but I also think he was trying not to overextend himself.

These are definitely the 2 for the win and their teams are strong, possibly stronger than last year so there will be no silly breakaways spoiling the party.

Evans, wiggins, don't have it, if rodriguez makes them look ordinary on climbs, Contador and Shleck will do worse. Gesink, van den broeck the same. Samu and Basso at the same race I haven't seen, so who knows how hard they were pushing.

Garmin look to be strong enough to put someone inside the 10 but noone strong enough to take a podium.

Horner and Kloden have looked good, and seem to be having conservative junes, levi doesn't have it.

HTC maybe a top 10, but a who cares result.

Have I missed anyone?

top 5

Schleck
Contador
Sanchez
radioshack rider
Basso

 

[Bennyl]

Right so we are coming closer to finishing the last lead up race to the tour.

Who has peaked too early ?

Alberto Contador. Because he cannot get any better than he was at the Giro. However, even slightly off his peak, he is still better than the rest.

Who is showing good signs ?

Although they won't really challenge for the win - Wiggans, Van Den Broek, Horner, Evans, Vino

Who is showing nothing but will ride well anyway ?

Andy Schlek and Sanchez

Who is now looking to the Vuelta ?

.. apart from the 3 week GC contenders not going to the Tour, its too early to tell.

My top 10

1 Contador
2 A Schleck
3 Sanchez
4 F Schleck
5 Van Den Broeck
6 Evans
7 Gesink
8 Wiggans
9 Horner
10 Soler

Hopefully Frank doesn't fall over or other which I think would make the race more exciting. Evans time trial will bring him back, but will lose time in the mountains. Same for Wiggans. Horner, VDB, Gesink & Soler will feature at various stages, but the top 4 will provide the most competition IMHO.

 

[Publicus]

By sprint do you mean Andy's attack under the 1 km banner, hardly a sprint, no?
Andy beat Sanchez in the sprint, he dropped Contador that day.

And that was when Andy won his first ever Grand Tour. The End.

 

[Publicus]

Last night Andy seemed to be looking at his power meter and deciding how to ride based on that more than any tactical situation and it looked easy, really easy, he wasn't dropped, he had a power number not to go over and he didn't.
Looking at ferrari's numbers on the Etna stage Contador is hitting numbers as high as ever. For 3 km a calculated 6.87 w/kg. Now rubbish this number and say it can't be compared to other climbs blah blah blah, but it can be compared to the other guys on the same day who were calculated at 5.79 for the same period. He slowed noticibly through the Giro, some may say as he was tired, which is a factor, but I also think he was trying not to overextend himself.

These are definitely the 2 for the win and their teams are strong, possibly stronger than last year so there will be no silly breakaways spoiling the party.

Evans, wiggins, don't have it, if rodriguez makes them look ordinary on climbs, Contador and Shleck will do worse. Gesink, van den broeck the same. Samu and Basso at the same race I haven't seen, so who knows how hard they were pushing.

Garmin look to be strong enough to put someone inside the 10 but noone strong enough to take a podium.

Horner and Kloden have looked good, and seem to be having conservative junes, levi doesn't have it.

HTC maybe a top 10, but a who cares result.

Have I missed anyone?

top 5

Schleck
Contador
Sanchez
radioshack rider
Basso

When was this? I know he wasn't initiating any more attacks after Etna (he didn't need to), but when did he slow noticeably??? [Sorry for the typo, hopefully it was clear what I was trying to say]